Who is the strongest overall in the COC?

[sw5890]

This topic came up awhile back so I wasted some time to throw some data into analytics. Results were kind of interesting. The score in the "win total" column is total number of regular season conference wins across 10 sports for which results were easy and readily available where all schools played a full COC schedule. So FB, soccer, base/softball, BB, but not track, xc, swimming, wresting, golf. So it's not a complete picture and this is only ONE school year. A different year could look completely different.

Some things that stood out to me:

• Enrollment does appear to at least loosely correlate to overall competitiveness more than I expected. Except in Joplin's case. Other than Joplin's much larger enrollment - the top two schools in terms of wins are the LARGEST and have the LEAST amount of poverty.
• Given the amount of media coverage and co-worker talk about WC winning I expected them to be up near Nixa, not in the bottom half. And definitely not below Carthage. Two of their power sports under-delivered in that regular season so it wasn't necessarily a great sampling for the Cards.
• Nixa absolutely domiantes the COC. They were first or second in ALMOST EVERY sport. They had ZERO sports below .500. They are literally good at everything.
• I thought Carthage and CJ would be similar but they aren't really even close.
• I included a free/reduced lunch factor because I was convinced it was a factor - maybe a little there but not a consistent predictor.
• Carl Junction struggles more than I thought but when you factor their enrollment they are right in line with everyone else on a per student basis. Neosho is the one that really got my attention. They had numerous sports with 1 or 0 wins.

21-22	COC WIN TOTAL	Enrollment	COC Rank	Enrollment Rank	Poverty Rank	Win rate per student
Nixa	79	1831	1	2	2	4.31%
Ozark	59	1632	2	3	1	3.62%
Republic	55	1501	3	5	5	3.66%
Carthage	47	1516	4	4	10	3.10%
Willard	45	1313	5	8	4	3.43%
Branson	42	1440	6	6	7	2.92%
Joplin	40	2216	7	1	9	1.81%
Webb City	40	1294	7	9	6	3.09%
Carl Junction	31	969	9	10	3	3.20%
Neosho	15	1372	10	7	8	1.09%

 

[AC100]

1. Branson did better than I would have thought

2. Joplin should do better considering their size but they do have 3 private schools within their district that take a lot of good mostly female athletes.

3. I would have guessed Nixa would have the lowest poverty level.

 

[AC100]

What are the sports besides FB, Soccer (2), basketball (2), volleyball, baseball/softball?

 

[sw5890]

What are the sports besides FB, Soccer (2), basketball (2), volleyball, baseball/softball?

B/G Tennis round out the 10.

Joplin also no doubt loses kids to Webb City as well so that doesn't help their cause either. Joplin is a little different than any other school in the conference except maybe Carthage. It's a large, not really suburban district with socioeconomic extremes on both ends of the spectrum and a nearby district that is considered a sports mecca.

One note on the poverty thing - the schools naturally clustered into 3 groups so it could have been just as accurate to rate them with 1,2, or 3. Joplin, Carthage, Neosho and Branson were all within a % or two of each other, what I'd call abnormally high poverty rates. Also Carthage has 1/4 of students considered "homeless" which is way more than any other COC school.

Nixa, Ozark, and Carl Junction have decidedly below average poverty. The others were all similar to each other, close to state average I believe.

 

[AC100]

You know some sports like wrestling and golf have a conference tournament or meet. You could give 9 points to the 1st place team and go down to last place gets zero. Just a thought.

 

[sw5890]

You know some sports like wrestling and golf have a conference tournament or meet. You could give 9 points to the 1st place team and go down to last place gets zero. Just a thought.

I thought about that but wasn't sure where to find the data. Ideally award points based on placement in the conf tourney. Not sure how much it would change things. Wresting would give Neosho a boost. I know Carthage boys won COC swimming.

 

[AC100]

2022 COC wrestling meet.

Ozark 9
CJ 8
Nixa 7
Neosho 6
Carthage 5
Willard 4
Republic 3
Branson 2
Joplin 1
Webb City 0

 

[AC100]

Girls track
Nixa 9
Ozark 8
CJ 7
Branson 6
Webb 5
Republic 4
Joplin 3
Carthage 2
Willard 1
Neosho 0

 

[AC100]

Joplin 9
Willard 8
Republic 7
Ozark 6
Nixa 5
Neosho 4
Webb 3
Branson 2
Carthage 1
CJ 0

 

[AC100]

I found that Neosho doesn't have girls golf so not counting it.

 

[AC100]

 

[sw5890]

Hey thanks! When I get a minute I'll add those in and see what it looks like.

 

[Winston Bishop]

Just thinking out loud: Isn't the question fundamentally what do you do with the athletes that you have? Ex. WC has 1k fewer kids than Joplin but I know they've been intentional (most widely known example is football) about their programs being vertical down through 3rd/4th grade in terms of systems they run, practices etc. So a school with roughly half the enrollment has achieved the same results through an intentional process.

I've spent a lot of time pestering other coaches and ADs in the Springfield area and I know that Nixa, Ozark, and Republic are pretty intentional with their weights (or athletic hour depending on the parlance) and having all athletes participate. It makes me wonder whether there is a plan like that in place for Neosho, CJ, WC, Joplin...

 

[sw5890]

I added these in - didn't wildly alter the overall results but did shuffle a couple schools in the middle of the pack. Adding these sports helped CJ and Joplin quite a bit. I was surprised that including track actually hurt Carthage since they won a state championship not very long ago. I did include girls golf - Neosho and Repmo either don't have a team or didn't participate in the tourney so winning was only worth 7pts instead of 9. It did not change the position or either of those 2 teams.

So this more complete picture supports my original assertion that CJ isn't quite as weak in the COC as some have suggested. They are only 5 total wins behind Webb City.

Here is what I found interesting though - the 4 teams with "high" rates of poverty - Neosho, Joplin, Branson and Carthage also have the lowest win rates per student. The 3 districts with the least poverty...you guessed it ...have the top 3 best win rates. Nixa, Ozark and Carl Junction.

21-22	COC WIN TOTAL	Win rate per student
Nixa	116	6.34%
Ozark	91	5.58%
Republic	72	4.80%
Willard	68	5.18%
Joplin	66	2.98%
Carthage	64	4.22%
Webb City	58	4.48%
Branson	56	3.89%
Carl Junction	53	5.47%
Neosho	25	1.82%

 

[COCfan1212]

Nixa also dominated the COC academically last year as well if you look at the core subject EOC assessment scores. They are a powerhouse across the board and are setup nicely for the foreseeable future.

 

[r14veer]

Nixa also dominated the COC academically last year as well if you look at the core subject EOC assessment scores. They are a powerhouse across the board and are setup nicely for the foreseeable future.

It's almost as if socio-economic levels affect academics, athletics, etc.

 

[Eagles_Ball]

3. I would have guessed Nixa would have the lowest poverty level.

An observation from being here for a few years now...it's because Nixa has more renters/apartments than the Ozark district. Once all the apartments in Ozark are finished and occupied you could see that change. There are quite a few being built or master-planned.

 

[Eagles_Ball]

It's almost as if socio-economic levels affect academics, athletics, etc.

Yeah, like it's kind of a reflection of parents that give a damn and those that don't, huh? I'll beat this drum loudly...just can't say it aloud in meetings.

 

[Eagles_Ball]

Really interesting data. Thanks for putting it together!

The one thing that stands out to me...CJ being where they are in the poverty rate. The high poverty schools are all the west siders (no surprise), but any clue what sets CJ apart from those? Genuinely curious about this.

 

[J. Kane]

Really interesting data. Thanks for putting it together!

The one thing that stands out to me...CJ being where they are in the poverty rate. The high poverty schools are all the west siders (no surprise), but any clue what sets CJ apart from those? Genuinely curious about this.

 

[Baldguy]

Carl Junction's district covers the entire west end of Jasper County, from the Barton line to the Newton line. The city isn't near as big as other COC towns, and doesn't contain near the rundown portions that others can accumulate. Briarbrook is an upper-end neighborhood that consumes a good portion of the south end as well. There is more "newness" to that area. In general, the vicinity catches a lot of the suburbia crowd, which tends to have more money. The rural areas, while laden with some nice housing developments to make it more densely populated, also consist of thriving farming enterprises, as the geography is good for such activities. The money on the west side is probably centered in that locale. The district has some great potential for growth as well, so any so-called talk of leaving the COC is probably premature, and is done in haste for some sort of quick fix to current issues. There may well not be another league they could fit in long-term.

 

[bullitpdq68]

Really interesting data. Thanks for putting it together!

The one thing that stands out to me...CJ being where they are in the poverty rate. The high poverty schools are all the west siders (no surprise), but any clue what sets CJ apart from those? Genuinely curious about this.

Briar Brook, many well off and affluent live around that area and being a smaller district it really inflates those numbers.

 

[AC100]

Briarbrook has lots of parents willing to spend lots of money on their kids for sports. It is just a smaller group than the Springfield schools have. Without Briarbrook CJ would still be in the Big 8.

 

[Pleiku]

Briarbrook has lots of parents willing to spend lots of money on their kids for sports. It is just a smaller group than the Springfield schools have. Without Briarbrook CJ would still be in the Big 8.

Cedar ridge subdivision is in the Joplin city limits but also the CJ school district

 

[J. Kane]

 

[bullitpdq68]

 

[mosofan]

Cedar ridge subdivision is in the Joplin city limits but also the CJ school district

I believe the area around Twin Hills Country Club is also in CJ school district.

 

[cru66]

I believe the area around Twin Hills Country Club is also in CJ school district.

West side of blackcat is Mayberry. East side Joplin. 32nd is another divider.

 

[TheRealJoey]

This topic came up awhile back so I wasted some time to throw some data into analytics. Results were kind of interesting. The score in the "win total" column is total number of regular season conference wins across 10 sports for which results were easy and readily available where all schools played a full COC schedule. So FB, soccer, base/softball, BB, but not track, xc, swimming, wresting, golf. So it's not a complete picture and this is only ONE school year. A different year could look completely different.

Some things that stood out to me:

• Enrollment does appear to at least loosely correlate to overall competitiveness more than I expected. Except in Joplin's case. Other than Joplin's much larger enrollment - the top two schools in terms of wins are the LARGEST and have the LEAST amount of poverty.
• Given the amount of media coverage and co-worker talk about WC winning I expected them to be up near Nixa, not in the bottom half. And definitely not below Carthage. Two of their power sports under-delivered in that regular season so it wasn't necessarily a great sampling for the Cards.
• Nixa absolutely domiantes the COC. They were first or second in ALMOST EVERY sport. They had ZERO sports below .500. They are literally good at everything.
• I thought Carthage and CJ would be similar but they aren't really even close.
• I included a free/reduced lunch factor because I was convinced it was a factor - maybe a little there but not a consistent predictor.
• Carl Junction struggles more than I thought but when you factor their enrollment they are right in line with everyone else on a per student basis. Neosho is the one that really got my attention. They had numerous sports with 1 or 0 wins.

21-22	COC WIN TOTAL	Enrollment	COC Rank	Enrollment Rank	Poverty Rank	Win rate per student
Nixa	79	1831	1	2	2	4.31%
Ozark	59	1632	2	3	1	3.62%
Republic	55	1501	3	5	5	3.66%
Carthage	47	1516	4	4	10	3.10%
Willard	45	1313	5	8	4	3.43%
Branson	42	1440	6	6	7	2.92%
Joplin	40	2216	7	1	9	1.81%
Webb City	40	1294	7	9	6	3.09%
Carl Junction	31	969	9	10	3	3.20%
Neosho	15	1372	10	7	8	1.09%

Joplin's median income is about $20,000/yr lower than Nixa.

 

[sw5890]

Joplin's median income is about $20,000/yr lower than Nixa.

That shouldn't be surprising. Aside from being Class 6 the two communities are nothing alike. Nixa is your prototypical homogeneous suburbia with mostly middle and upper middle class families and lots of new or newer neighborhoods.

Joplin on the other hand is the core of a metro area, basically a scaled down Springfield/SPS. A much wider variety of people, incomes, backgrounds and neighborhood types.

 

[AC100]

Joplin is a small Springfield
CJ is a small Nixa
Webb is a small Ozark? Maybe. Webb has more of an income mix like Ozark.

 

[Comeagle]

I don’t know about the comparison of Webb and Ozark. I think the average income for Nixa and Ozark would be close. Is there any nice parts of town in Webb? In all seriousness I have been in Webb City numerous times and never seen what most people would consider “a nice part of town”
BTW, I have no ties to Ozark or Webb City

 

[AC100]

Yes there are several nice parts of Webb City. However you don't see them if you go downtown or go to the high school.

 

[Limbline]

I don’t know about the comparison of Webb and Ozark. I think the average income for Nixa and Ozark would be close. Is there any nice parts of town in Webb? In all seriousness I have been in Webb City numerous times and never seen what most people would consider “a nice part of town”
BTW, I have no ties to Ozark or Webb City

The nicer parts of the Webb school district are north of town in the Oronogo area and East of town in Heritage Acres. There has been a lot of growth north of Webb.

 

[Baldguy]

Greystone has been a nice addition in Oronogo. Schuber-Mitchell is building a kazillion homes all around the area. I hope they stay nice once completed and habitated.

 

[Eagles_Ball]

I hope they stay nice once completed and habitated.

That's the trick...Those contractor-grade subdivisions are such a crap shoot. When interest rates were at an all-time low and about anyone that could sign their name could qualify for nearly 100% financing, it wouldn't take them long to deteriorate. I feel that is changing. It's much more likely to have pride in ownership if you actually have some skin in the game.

 

[bloodmakesthegrassgrow]

Webb City is an interesting mix. about 50% like Joplin or Neosho, The older main part of town. %50 like CJ or Ozark, Oronogo Heritage acres. When you look at the breakdown of elementary schools in the district. The Truman schools, north of town, have very low free and reduced lunch numbers. The schools in town have extremely high free and deduced lunch numbers. The mix makes Webb around the middle of the conference. It is really like two totally diffrent communities.

 

[sw5890]

Webb City is an interesting mix. about 50% like Joplin or Neosho, The older main part of town. %50 like CJ or Ozark, Oronogo Heritage acres. When you look at the breakdown of elementary schools in the district. The Truman schools, north of town, have very low free and reduced lunch numbers. The schools in town have extremely high free and deduced lunch numbers. The mix makes Webb around the middle of the conference. It is really like two totally diffrent communities.

Almost everyone I know in WC tries to get their kid into Truman even if it's a 25 minute drive 4 times a day - so the resulting demographics are very favorable for high achievement and involvement. I had a friend a few years ago that lived in town and went to an open house at their assigned elementary. They said it was such a rough crowd they ended up going to a private school until they could get into Truman.

WC gets kind of an unfair rap for being a dump because the two worst parts of town are along the main road into town and along the road leading to the HS so its what everyone sees. A lot of the $$ people live outside of town but there are some high end neighborhoods in town as well like over along the east side of the airport. A several other newer but not necessarily "high end" neighborhoods. They are all just tucked away off the main roads.

 

[bullitpdq68]

Almost everyone I know in WC tries to get their kid into Truman even if it's a 25 minute drive 4 times a day - so the resulting demographics are very favorable for high achievement and involvement. I had a friend a few years ago that lived in town and went to an open house at their assigned elementary. They said it was such a rough crowd they ended up going to a private school until they could get into Truman.

WC gets kind of an unfair rap for being a dump because the two worst parts of town are along the main road into town and along the road leading to the HS so its what everyone sees. A lot of the $$ people live outside of town but there are some high end neighborhoods in town as well like over along the east side of the airport. A several other newer but not necessarily "high end" neighborhoods. They are all just tucked away off the main roads.

Webb is just an older established town, so yes you will have impoverished areas probable larger than those of newer growth towns. But then the last 10-20 years they have had newer growth but mainly outside of the city limits, But honestly when I was in school in the 70's & 80's Webb as a town was not the greatest. Growing up in Joplin I remember driving over there around that time and there was not much but the older parts looked run down. Joplin was growing fast, all those neighborhoods around Parkwood/Joplin high were new and building was crazy back then. But I think when Joplin decided to go back to one high school in the late 80's you started seeing people move from Joplin to Webb and CJ because they wanted thier kids to grow up in smaller schools and well other things.....

 

[Rawlathaballa90]

Joplin is a small Springfield
CJ is a small Nixa
Webb is a small Ozark? Maybe. Webb has more of an income mix like Ozark.

Carthage and Neosho are small Guatemala Citys