Is the high school football talent pool dropping?
- Thread starter bhunt95
- Start date
I tell myself at the beginning of every year not to expect the quality of football that my team was playing at the end of the previous year. And every year I'm still disappointed in how far they need to go to get to where they were the last time I saw them play. I think this is typical of high school football and high school football fans.
With participation down around the country, it stands to reason that the talent pool would shrink as well...
Overall I would say talent level is down. Declining work ethic, real or perceived head injury concerns, year round focus on one sport, etc has led to it IMO. The top end players and teams are really good. Obv everybody has their opinion on the private school issue, but it seems like the top end private schools have almost become all star teams, thus taking talent away from their home district schools. I may or may not be right on this, but is the coaching in as good as it used to be? The shelf life on coaches is shorter now. In my day you had coaches who coached 2 or 3 sports for the best part of their whole career. Now days a lot of them get out of coaching much quicker. Some of them get tenure and are done. Obviously there are some fantastic coaches out there, but there aren't as many coaching lifers anymore.
Concentration of talent? Man, any college recruiter who says that is probably engaging in flattery, exaggerating, or not being entirely truthful.
The greatest concentration in talent in the country might be in Fort Lauderdale. There are at least 54 kids in Fort Lauderdale who hold an offer from a FBS school in the 2018 Class. Fifty-four in a city with a population of 180,000.
For context, there are currently 34 kids in the entire state of Missouri who hold an offer from an FBS school in the 2018 class.
There are currently 700 players in Florida in the 2018 class who currently hold an offer from an FBS school, compared to Missouri’s 34. Florida has 19 million people and Missouri 6 million. So they have roughly three times as many people and 20 times as many FBS Division I football players.
In addition to FTL, Tampa, Miami and Jacksonville all have a higher concentration of FBS talent. Probably others in FLA as well if I gave it some thought.
If you don’t want to hear about Florida, consider that Missouri City, Texas, population 75,000, has 18 kids in the 2018 class that currently hold an offer from an FBS program. That’s pretty crazy.
I will stipulate that the overall talent level in St. Louis is really high right now, perhaps as good as it has ever been in the city. But it’s quite a stretch to say it has the highest concentration of talent in the nation unless I’m not understanding what that means.
http://www.rankbyoffers.com/2018fbplayers/
It's not just Football. Softball and Baseball are not near as talented as they were 15 years ago. Kids aren't working as hard, playing as much or something.
I think what I'm seeing is that the overall talent pool is getting better. As such, you don't see teams standing out the way they did maybe 10 years ago.
In three weeks this year I've seen 10 kids who will play D1 (FCS or above) next year.
In three weeks this year I've seen 10 kids who will play D1 (FCS or above) next year.
You also realize that the state of Florida has 7-8 FBS programs that recruit heavily locally?
Florida
Florida State
UCF
USF
MIAMI
FIU
FAU
I could be missing one or two. My point being, wouldn't you expect the state with 7 times as many FBS schools to have a significantly higher amount of FBS scholarship offers? Maybe it's just me lol
I think this is kind of an interesting topic and there isn't a straightforward answer. I don't think there is less talent. I think what we are seeing is a concentration of talent, or at least developed talent into fewer kids and at fewer schools.
I do believe that more (but not all) kids have a low level of work ethic and discipline than previous generations. That is a factor. I also believe that on the whole, in most towns, there is less interest in high school sports - not just football but across the board. Both from participation by students and by the community as a form of entertainment. School sport events used to be a premier social outlet for kids, but that no longer seems to be the case. I am often surprised how few of my kids school friends we see at football and basketball games. I believe there are a lot of reasons for that, but I think a big one is that social media gives a false sense of social connectivity to many people these days without actually going anywhere. There is also just a lot more to do these days and people are busy. And the safety concerns are definitely a factor. Maybe not in Webb City but in pretty much every other town around here.
The coaching thing that someone mentioned is a valid point. Many schools seem to turnover coaches every few years, either because the coach hasn't been able to implement a deep rooted culture and tradition in a short period of time or the coach IS winning but has higher ambitions. Which results in an inconsistent culture and methodology for a given sport and school.
The funny thing is that high school facilities for athletics are better than ever, yet attendance and participation does seem to be declining. I might be wrong, I haven't actually looked at numbers. It's admittedly just a gut feel based on how things compare to when I was in school.
In my opinion, the days of state titles being won here and there by particularly talented groups of athletes that come up through random schools is about over, if it's not already. An athletes best shot at playing for a state title used to be to set goals, work hard with their friends and practice. Today I think it's those things PLUS hoping their parents leave their home community and move to the athletic mecca district nearest them. It's a twist on the old saying... "It's impossible to beat them, but I can at least join them and beat other people".
So really I don't think there is less talent. I just think it's showing up in fewer places.
I do believe that more (but not all) kids have a low level of work ethic and discipline than previous generations. That is a factor. I also believe that on the whole, in most towns, there is less interest in high school sports - not just football but across the board. Both from participation by students and by the community as a form of entertainment. School sport events used to be a premier social outlet for kids, but that no longer seems to be the case. I am often surprised how few of my kids school friends we see at football and basketball games. I believe there are a lot of reasons for that, but I think a big one is that social media gives a false sense of social connectivity to many people these days without actually going anywhere. There is also just a lot more to do these days and people are busy. And the safety concerns are definitely a factor. Maybe not in Webb City but in pretty much every other town around here.
The coaching thing that someone mentioned is a valid point. Many schools seem to turnover coaches every few years, either because the coach hasn't been able to implement a deep rooted culture and tradition in a short period of time or the coach IS winning but has higher ambitions. Which results in an inconsistent culture and methodology for a given sport and school.
The funny thing is that high school facilities for athletics are better than ever, yet attendance and participation does seem to be declining. I might be wrong, I haven't actually looked at numbers. It's admittedly just a gut feel based on how things compare to when I was in school.
In my opinion, the days of state titles being won here and there by particularly talented groups of athletes that come up through random schools is about over, if it's not already. An athletes best shot at playing for a state title used to be to set goals, work hard with their friends and practice. Today I think it's those things PLUS hoping their parents leave their home community and move to the athletic mecca district nearest them. It's a twist on the old saying... "It's impossible to beat them, but I can at least join them and beat other people".
So really I don't think there is less talent. I just think it's showing up in fewer places.
Maybe I'm not smart enough to figure it out, but the IMG academy is about $75,000 a year. Doesn't that cancel out the value of a couple years of a D1 scholarship? I get it that a good deal of those kids are pro prospects and will get that money back, but dang.
I think football has been hurt by new regulations for practice. I don't think most schools practice live tackling and from what i have seen that makes kids tentative on game days. Backs not running hard and tacklers trying to arm tackle are normal now. Add to that flags for hard hits during games and the on field product "looks" different.
Also in order for kids to excel in a sport they almost have to specialize. Of course there are exceptions. Totally agree high school sports are no longer social activities. Too much work for kids who just want to play and have fun. Personally, i don't think there is anything wrong with a kid that shows up first day of practice and just wants to be on the team. Long winded way to say i agree the talent level does appear to be in decline.
Also in order for kids to excel in a sport they almost have to specialize. Of course there are exceptions. Totally agree high school sports are no longer social activities. Too much work for kids who just want to play and have fun. Personally, i don't think there is anything wrong with a kid that shows up first day of practice and just wants to be on the team. Long winded way to say i agree the talent level does appear to be in decline.
Some very good points here. I couldn't agree more with the second paragraph. Even 10-15 years ago, the Friday night football game/basketball game was a community event in most places (even more so 30 years ago), but society isn't that community-oriented anymore by an and large. I used to blame attendance issues/community involvement in high school sports on the addition of multiple schools (due to growth) in my city, but I moved to a single-school district and yet see the same lack of community/school spirit.
It is disappointing, but I am not sure how to arrest that issue. It has had an across-the-board effect on participation numbers as well as game attendance and, in some cases, I believe it has carried over into levy and bond issues that don't pass due to the lack of connectivity between school and community that the high school teams used to provide.
Then again, I am writing this on a Monday morning, so that might affect my mood and the pessimism with which I see the issue!
They play all the damn time, its all some kids do. HS football NEVER stops in most places, it has become almost year round. HS coaches compete for camp time in the summer, kids are forced to choose, which camp (sport) they attend. More and more parents are insisting their kid "focus" on one sport. They are starting so young in "competitive" sports now there is a great deal of burnout when they finally get to the HS level.
Burnout, repetitive motion injury, and hurts athletic development as well...
Plus it becomes a return-on-investment program to get a scholarship instead of an endeavor to help build good characteristics and be engaged in school community.
I have never particularly like Urban Meyer but really applauded his public stance that he does not want single-sport athletes.
WIth an 8% drop over the last four years, the quality had to drop as well.
Missouri participation in 11 man football:
2016 21,210
2015 21,883
2014 22,091
2013 23,257
2012 23,066
2011 23,178
2010 24,490
2009 23,594
2008 24,433
2007 23,638
Missouri participation in 11 man football:
2016 21,210
2015 21,883
2014 22,091
2013 23,257
2012 23,066
2011 23,178
2010 24,490
2009 23,594
2008 24,433
2007 23,638
As Duck would say it is Youth footballs fault.
Perhaps the cream is continuing to rise to the top as the smaller overall participation numbers represent lesser talented fringe and riff raff may be falling away.
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Liberty was able to get some of those athletes out this year...that were baseball only.
Good for them. Liberty has been notorious for coaches making kids become one sport athletes.
I think it's worth noting that there is a difference between talent and skill. Talent is natural God given ability. Skill can be developed and refined (to a point) through various methods - specializing in a sport at a young age, weight training, private instruction, joining a program with buy-in, etc.
I don't think talent level has changed or will change, aside from how much shows up to play. Skill on the other hand, I think we are and will continue to see more skill.
I don't think talent level has changed or will change, aside from how much shows up to play. Skill on the other hand, I think we are and will continue to see more skill.
I think there are way too many teams who think they have 22 starters when in reality they probably have about eight.
There are more kids specializing within the sport of football than years past and I’m not sold that is always a good thing.
There are more kids specializing within the sport of football than years past and I’m not sold that is always a good thing.
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I can't speak for the other areas of the state. But in Southwest Mo, the overall level of play is down from where it was 10-15 years ago. Webb and Lamar are exceptions of course. Right now, there are some mediocre teams, setting at 3-0. I would even go as far to say there were 2 state champion teams last season, that would not have made it out of districts in most years. It is very hard to overcome low numbers, and lack of skill. A lot of coaches really do an excellent job of scheming, and hiding their team's short-comings.
Some may disagree, but I'm a firm believer that there is too much regulation in high school football anymore. Due to the possible health risks later on in life and freak accidents that have occurred over the years, the state gets way too involved with how a football program is run, which has changed longstanding preseason traditions and preparations when it comes to practice(two-a-days, three-a-days, etc..) and with the limited hours that a coach can officially have contact with the players during the summer and the limited days that players are allowed to hit each other, I believe that it has had an overall negative impact on the sport in about 95% of the schools across the country.
In some cases, not all, I think it is more the floor rising rather than the ceiling coming down. In the mid 90's when I played we were decent and had a chance at the Big 8 crown going into the last week. Based on what I have seen the last few years I think we would have been in the mid to lower part of today's Big 8. Time and effort put into today's game is night and day to what we did. We were about half way to into game shape when practice started. Today if you are not in game shape on the first day of practice you are already behind.
Great topic and I have been ask this question in many forms over the last few years. I do think that in many areas of growing population bases and additional high schools opening is contributing to the issue. During my high school days in Northern Kentucky you had the local public school or local catholic school to attend. That resulted in the talent being clustered in two schools not five or six. You worked your tail off to get on the field. These additional schools are offering kids more and more opportunities for additional sports and football is no longer the dominate sport in some schools. Some really talented kids never see the football field after 5/6 grade. As mentioned above a huge issue continues to be the volume of negative press associated with football injury potential. The kids now are certainly way more advanced due to training technique improvements.
Something else that has to be considered is scholarship limits. It was very common in my playing days for the major programs to offer kids they were trying to keep away from their rivals, 85 and 63 limits sure make the pools naturally smaller.
Something else that has to be considered is scholarship limits. It was very common in my playing days for the major programs to offer kids they were trying to keep away from their rivals, 85 and 63 limits sure make the pools naturally smaller.
