coronavirus and presidential election
- Thread starter bullitpdq68
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Mixing of numbers but the data from places like Italy to date suggest this is much worse than the flu for the elderly and there’s a reason for us to treat this as worse than the flu. It’s one thing to not believe everything from China. But there are plenty of cases in Korea, France, Italy, etc. this is much more dangerous to the elderly than the normal flu.
the stock market doesn’t decline 6 percent in a day because of the media. Fortune 500 companies don’t ban travel because China is pulling a hoax. In a time of tumult, we need to be rational and honest with ourselves. This is not bad at the moment in the US. But it is a real risk for the elderly and the sick. And we should take measures to ensure the death total is 500 and not 50,000.
the stock market doesn’t decline 6 percent in a day because of the media. Fortune 500 companies don’t ban travel because China is pulling a hoax. In a time of tumult, we need to be rational and honest with ourselves. This is not bad at the moment in the US. But it is a real risk for the elderly and the sick. And we should take measures to ensure the death total is 500 and not 50,000.
This seems like a tremendously silly response given the actions we see from the CDC and other medical experts. I’m no expert at this, but I don’t listen to a random doctor or a nurse for five minutes and pretend I’m an expert. We have a world class medical system and world class medical bureaucracy. We should rely upon the opinions of these experts.
We should also listen to them about things like the flu and heart disease if we want to live longer and healthier lives.
the stock market today is mostly because Saudi Arabia is in a oil price war with Russia and obviously a bunch of measures are being taken to reduce the spread. Older people and people with underlying health conditions are at great risk with this virus.
The stock market has been tanking for weeks because people are very worried about a demand shock. Spreads between treasuries and Corp credit, especially high yield, are exploding.
the market is telling us something. It’s not telling us the Saudis and Russians are in a war over the price of oil. We should be more concerned about the demand and supply shocks that are implied by these market results.
I think the wealthy are worried about the bottom line and rightly so many companies have over exposed themselves to the the supply side, and growth in foreign countries. So yes the supply chain is being hit hard for some along with growth. Apple might want to rethink having all of it's production in one apple cart going forward. Companies like them got caught with their pants down again and it is going to hurt. I am being told it might be 8 months before they can catch back up with demand with production coming out of China.
However I think the common man might not think twice about what is going on with the Coronavirus. Summer is coming, gas is going to real cheap, air travel prices are going down. I don't think many will sit on the sideline for long. If we were going into the winter months yeah I could see this hitting us harder, however being that we are seeing this in the spring, Which yes spring fever will hit, I think it will be a small bump, but from what I am seeing the dollar is going farther for many especially with cheap gas and people are going to spend it.
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/03/stock-markets-coronavirus-oil/
A know mother jones is a right wing propaganda site but there you go...
A know mother jones is a right wing propaganda site but there you go...
China factories are generally running again full bore for the most part. It's not globalization that's the issue with the overall economy (although it does raise questions about where you produce things like pharmaceuticals.) The issue is that US companies aren't spending money in the US at the same rate they were a month ago, and that banks are terrified that their loans to many US companies are going to go bad
Certainly that could help. But the bread and butter of airlines and hotels isn't families of 4 looking for $200 tickets. It's people like me whose employer spends five figures a year on my plane tickets and hotel rooms, at last minute, high margin prices.
As long as places like AB, Emerson, Bayer, etc. are holding off on travel and banning people from going to conventions, those firms are all getting killed.
Sure, but you're remaining overly focused on one day. That's my point. We were down double digit % before today, and treasuries were already down 50 bps before today. That's a warning light about something other than oil.
Not a 5% chance like a 2.3% we have discussed that, I've seen the numbers from the CDC and is skew's heavy to old males....Again you come with hyperbole over reaction. Also that is 299 confirmed coronavirus cases....the CDC suspects almost as many people have been exposed to the coronavirus as has the Flu big chunks of data have not been obtained in that regard because 80-85% show minimal signs of the virus.
It's you who are brained washed into a panic you have swallowed the Media worm Hook,Line and sinker.
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Even lefty Bill Maher thinks the media is Driving the panic. I'm just posting the Numbers and current data that comes from actual scientist and healthcare professionals. You keep posting fear and disinformation...5% LOL that fits your narrative. Of course after this all blows over with Minimal impact, you will remain silent or ignore the topic. SadButtrue you operate that way.
You're just mad Randy because you dissed your GF by putting words in his mouth about the coronavirus.
The market is back up over 1100 points and it wasn’t because people are no longer worrried about Coronavirus. Partially because of a possible stimulus package. It will probably drop again though because the ongoing Saudi-Russian oil price war. This is absolutely wrecking Iran’s economy BTW.
The people that have so much influence on our lives by driving the market up or down on a whim are about as spastic as anybody I've ever heard of. So few people should not have that much power over our economy and our lives in general. They have more power than the president, the speaker of the house and senate majority leader all put together. What the heck was so different today from yesterday or the day before to make such huge swings in the market?
They can't even make up their mind if they want a correction or not from one day to the next.
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If you look back at past selloffs this is pretty normal way down one day and sorta up the next. There has been a lot of good growth, but it could not continue on its current path.
Bad time for my wife's retirement plan. She took some of it out this kind of danger a year or two ago because she is getting closer to retirement and what she left in was doing good until now.
As I said My GF is on a CDC task force....behind the scenes they are not up in arms or overly worried. They realize the threat is to Males over 80...almost a 15% fatality rate. That skews the other data. Women and Children are hardly effected at all. This isn't just Random RN and Doctors....Oh and by the way many healthcare prof. get data not released to the public. You'd be surprised about how much public perception and response is a factor on things.. It even impacts funding.
Not sure I follow your post? I'm not mad at all. Just pointing out that you lack any evidence to support your view point. Plus you completely falsified your data to either fear monger or to make your misguided view point look true.
Oh by the way I got your homophobic "HIS" GF thing...I'm a adult so I don't delve into immature Junior High Girl BS. I guess you lack that maturity when you are clearly proven incorrect to refrain from that type of back handed comment.
The majority of Americans are never affected by the market, most don't own any stock.
Actually about 55% of Americans own some stock. It used to be as high as 60%. Everyone is affected by the market on an indirect basis though big swings like in the past couple weeks probably don’t do much to people day to day.
No, but my guess is most of that 55% is mutual funds/401K.
You control how your money is invested in a 401k. Most 401k plans offer a spread of mutual funds composed of stocks, bonds, and money market investments.
So even if they are "just investing" in their 401k, they are still effected by the market.
It's been a long time since 2008-2009, but Monday, Tuesday, and today are a great reminder that (a) you need to look at the overall trend and (b) tremendous daily moves are a sign the market is in a panic. It's very difficult for the market to go up by 3%+ in a single day in normal times.
The Dow going up by 1,000 is a good thing for that day, but it's generally a sign that the market is in a time of stress and volatility.
"Not up in arms"...would you take a plane flight if you had a 1 in 1000 chance of dying? Would you ride a rollercoaster? Let your kids go on a vacation to Mexico at that death rate? especially if that 1 in 1,000 could actually be 1 in 100 or something different since we don't have quality data on the topic and we could end up receiving substandard care if we are sick at a time when the health system is overburdened like we've seen in China and Italy?
It's true that it is much more impactful at old ages, but your viewpoint is not rational to me. We should want to avoid events with low frequency when the severity is extreme enough. Death is as extreme as it gets. People are exercising basic risk management in a much more rational way. The risk can't be transferred or shared. It must be avoided.
The median person is far more impacted by a change in their projected stream of future earnings than the stock market unless they are at retirement age.
Like, if you're a 40 year old with $30,000 in your 401(k) who makes $15/hr...that $15/hr going to $12/hr is far, far worse than your $30k asset balance going to $20k. It's also true that an increase in your pay to $17/hr means a hell of a lot more than a 20% run up in the stock market
Like, if you're a 40 year old with $30,000 in your 401(k) who makes $15/hr...that $15/hr going to $12/hr is far, far worse than your $30k asset balance going to $20k. It's also true that an increase in your pay to $17/hr means a hell of a lot more than a 20% run up in the stock market
I would guess that the market had more 3% daily increases in 2008 than it had in 2019.
Drastic market changes affect pretty much all of us one way or another, just oil prices. If it affects the places I do business with adversely it's going to affect me pretty soon too. Seems like Trump's buddy Putin want to drive the U.S. companies out of the oil business so he's having a price war with Trump's other friends the Saudis. We'll have cheap gas for a while then it'll go crazy again.
I am sure you still ride and drive a car and your chances of 1 in 103. There are many things you have a better chance of dying from if that is your argument for the panic.
https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/all-injuries/preventable-death-overview/odds-of-dying/
Lifetime odds of death for selected causes, United States, 2017
Cause of Death Odds of Dying
Heart Disease 1 in 6
Cancer 1 in 7
Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease 1 in 27
Suicide 1 in 88
Opioid overdose 1 in 96
Motor Vehicle Crash 1 in 103
Fall 1 in 114
Gun Assault 1 in 285
Pedestrian Incident 1 in 556
Motorcyclist 1 in 858
Drowning 1 in 1,117
Fire or Smoke 1 in 1,474
Choking on Food 1 in 2,696
Bicyclist 1 in 4,047
Accidental Gun Discharge 1 in 8,527
Sunstroke 1 in 8,912
Electrocution, Radiation, Extreme Temperatures and Pressure 1 in 15,638
Sharp objects 1 in 28,000
Cataclysmic Storm 1 in 31,394
Hot surfaces and substances 1 in 46,045
Hornet, wasp and bee stings 1 in 46,562
Dog attack 1 in 115,111
Passenger on an airplane 1 in 188,364
Lightning 1 in 218,106
Railway passenger 1 in 243,765
And then as the price goes up companies will open back up those wells. The only way Russia or the Saudis win is to keep oil prices below were it is profitable for those companies to no longer drill forever.
I have some investment in oil wells "benefit of being on the Indian Rolls", They just turn off the pump when it is no longer profitable. When we meet to discuss everybody knows they cannot keep prices this low forever and we just wait them out. It happened last time the Saudis tried this.
No, I meant 2008. We had rips up during the great fall.
Days with a 3% increase in the S&P by year per Yahoo finance:
2008 - 20
2009 - 10
2010 - 2
2011 - 6
2012-2019: a total of 3.
You'd find similar numbers for 3% drops. My point is that volatility is a sign of an unhealthy market.
YES they turn it off and layoffs LOTS of workers which in turn screws with our economy even more. The Saudis have a LOTS of money, they can hold out for a long time if they want. Putin doesn't have to worry about the economy for his re-election anymore so he can hold out too. He has done what Trump would like to do and made himself president as long as he lives.
You can't compare lifetime chances of deaths to the chance of death from a one-off event. This is meaningless.
Plus we rationally opt to avoid or mitigate many of those causes of death! People wear seatbelts, don't drive drunk, don't use opiates, etc. I would never own a large dog, never play around with a gun, etc.
There's a separate discussion about people being irrational on other items, but the fact that I may die from cancer when I'm 83 is totally irrelevant to how I or society should approach a pandemic with even a modest chance of killing me.
and just because you go out doesn't mean you will get it? WTH, You know how many people possible have it and have never shown symptoms? No you don't nobody does. We don't know much about it right now we are still learning. They say there are possible thousands who have it and have never shown symptoms who are walking among us. Which would change the death rate drastically.
