State Championship predictions

[dashana]

I do not know how the data would play out but the statements he makes supports exactly what I read and have been reading on this board for years!

Some quick calculations.... 1987-88 through 2022-23 seasons, class 1 - 6. This accounts for Burroughs and Lexington playing to a Tie in 1995-96. Used this date range to correspond with the range in the article.

153​	Public School State Champions		76.12%​
48​	Private School State Champions		23.88%​

2023-24 Season thus far, 303 total football schools class 1-6

271​	Public Schools Playing Football Class 1-6	89.44%​
32​	Private Schools Playing Football Class 1-6	10.56%​

Data Source is MSHSAA.org.

Interesting.

 

[Veer2Eternity]

Some quick calculations.... 1987-88 through 2022-23 seasons, class 1 - 6. This accounts for Burroughs and Lexington playing to a Tie in 1995-96. Used this date range to correspond with the range in the article.

153​	Public School State Champions		76.12%​
48​	Private School State Champions		23.88%​

2023-24 Season thus far, 303 total football schools class 1-6

271​	Public Schools Playing Football Class 1-6	89.44%​
32​	Private Schools Playing Football Class 1-6	10.56%​

Data Source is MSHSAA.org.

Interesting.

Now do it by class.

Thanks.

 

[dashana]

1988-89 through 2022-23 Seasons, % of State Champs won per sector, private or public.

	Class 1	Class 2	Class 3	Class 4	Class 5	Class 6
Private	36.11%	31.43%	27.78%	8.33%	11.11%	42.86%
Public	63.89%	68.57%	72.22%	91.67%	88.89%	57.14%

Enjoy

 

[Veer2Eternity]

1988-89 through 2022-23 Seasons, % of State Champs won per sector, private or public.

	Class 1	Class 2	Class 3	Class 4	Class 5	Class 6
Private	36.11%	31.43%	27.78%	8.33%	11.11%	42.86%
Public	63.89%	68.57%	72.22%	91.67%	88.89%	57.14%

Enjoy

Yep that's the issue now.
Those votes to move to two different playoff systems will be different next time after more than just the small classes are affected.

What was the overall % of private vs public schools in the classes?

 

[dashana]

Yep that's the issue now.
Those votes to move to two different playoff systems will be different next time after more than just the small classes are affected.

What was the overall % of private vs public schools in the classes?

	Class 1	Class 2	Class 3	Class 4	Class 5	Class 6
Private	2.78%	15.79%	16.07%	7.14%	10.71%	8.93%
Public	97.22%	84.21%	83.93%	92.86%	89.29%	91.07%

 

[Veer2Eternity]

	Class 1	Class 2	Class 3	Class 4	Class 5	Class 6
Private	2.78%	15.79%	16.07%	7.14%	10.71%	8.93%
Public	97.22%	84.21%	83.93%	92.86%	89.29%	91.07%

BOOM

 

[503_Maple]

Yep that's the issue now.
Those votes to move to two different playoff systems will be different next time after more than just the small classes are affected.

What was the overall % of private vs public schools in the classes?

I respect what you are doing. But only class 5-6 are going to be won by privates this year. CR the most likely, and CBC has a 50/50 shot.

 

[dashana]

BOOM

These percentages will change from year to year as CFP are applied, and classes are changed.

 

[Veer2Eternity]

I respect what you are doing. But only class 5-6 are going to be won by privates this year. CR the most likely, and CBC has a 50/50 shot.

2.78% of the schools won 36% of the titles in class 1.
15% won 31% in class 2.


That's where the problems were. Now? They are getting moved up so more of these districts will see what it's like.

 

[Arcola]

1988-89 through 2022-23 Seasons, % of State Champs won per sector, private or public.

	Class 1	Class 2	Class 3	Class 4	Class 5	Class 6
Private	36.11%	31.43%	27.78%	8.33%	11.11%	42.86%
Public	63.89%	68.57%	72.22%	91.67%	88.89%	57.14%

Enjoy

Thanks for sharing. I’m guessing in the class one private Valle makes up a large part of the 36.11%?

 

[Veer2Eternity]

These percentages will change from year to year as CFP are applied, and classes are changed.

Id say its fair to guess that class 1 private schools across that time frame accounted for about 10% or less of all class 1 schools.

 

[dashana]

Thanks for sharing. I’m guessing in the class one private Valle makes up a large part of the 36.11%?

Yes, Valle consists of 33.33%(12) while St. Vincent accounts for 2.78(1)%.

To be fair, for instance, this year the class 1 enrollment break is 1-172. Valle is at 99. I realize they're class 2, but that's with the addition of CFP. They have a great program. They don't have Soccer, which helps with the amount of kids available for football.

 

[MoSooner69]

So Privates win at a rate of more that 2X what they should, looking at their numbers... Guessing its because of hard work and not the advantages that the have...

 

[dashana]

So Privates win at a rate of more that 2X what they should, looking at their numbers... Guessing its because of hard work and not the advantages that the have...

what rate should they win at? It's a combination of both.

 

[Veer2Eternity]

what rate should they win at? It's a combination of both.

Bullstuff.
The smaller class privates had the advantage of pulling from a giant talent pool and staying in class 1 or 2.

class 6 is about recruiting.

 

[_slo_mo_]

what rate should they win at? It's a combination of both.

They should theoretically win at a rate equal to the distribution of privates and publics in a given class.

But what am I doing. I shouldn't be here right now, I should not be responding, we need to let this poor baby die. Let's shelve the public vs privates talk until at least after the Holidays.

This is June content.

 

[dashana]

Bullstuff.
The smaller class privates had the advantage of pulling from a giant talent pool and staying in class 1 or 2.

class 6 is about recruiting.

Eh, agree to disagree on a couple of points. Private Metro/City schools, I agree, they recruit. They're recruiting against each other first, then the publics. Small urban schools, which are few in number, not so much. They do benefit from the larger geographic area, but do not bus, so parents are generally tasked with driving the kids quite a distance to a school they chose. Most folks choose not to. I don't believe the giant talent pool is as much of a benefit as you perceive it to be. To each his own.

 

[Veer2Eternity]

Eh, agree to disagree on a couple of points. Private Metro/City schools, I agree, they recruit. They're recruiting against each other first, then the publics. Small urban schools, which are few in number, not so much. They do benefit from the larger geographic area, but do not bus, so parents are generally tasked with driving the kids quite a distance to a school they chose. Most folks choose not to. I don't believe the giant talent pool is as much of a benefit as you perceive it to be. To each his own.

weird how when they bump classes they don't dominate. What else would you attribute that to?

 

[dashana]

That the "giant talent pool" didn't help them in any class. What other conclusion can be empirically drawn? Valle for instance, student population size of 99, played 1-class 1, 4-class 3, 2-class 4, and 2-class 6 schools in the regular season. I'd say playing a schedule full of much larger schools gives them an advantage when it comes to playing schools of similar size. They don't have soccer. Many things contribute, to both arguments. I just don't think it's a black and white issue.

 

[Veer2Eternity]

That the "giant talent pool" didn't help them in any class. What other conclusion can be empirically drawn? Valle for instance, student population size of 99, played 1-class 1, 4-class 3, 2-class 4, and 2-class 6 schools in the regular season. I'd say playing a schedule full of much larger schools gives them an advantage when it comes to playing schools of similar size. They don't have soccer. Many things contribute, to both arguments. I just don't think it's a black and white issue.

But they pull from AT LEAST one entire county. That county happens to have the same amount of kids that other class 3 schools have.

And they give financial aid.

Those two things alone should disqualify a private school from participating in MSHSAA playoffs.

Public schools can't do that.

 

[dashana]

They don't "pull" from any one county. I venture that they'll take a student from any county that can financially qualify and regularly attend. Valle is probably 20 minutes from Farmington. They may have some students from there as well. As a matter of fact, I believe Farmington's school district extends into Ste. Genevieve County? Valle is also 20 minutes from Perryville, maybe some students from that county as well, probably not as St. Vincent is in Perryville. Additionally, MSHSAA is a membership organization, have to pay to play. If changes to any particular system need to be made, members need to lobby for the change. I don't think Ste. Gen or Farmington are complaining about Valle.

You got me though, public schools don't give financial aid, they don't need to.

 

[Veer2Eternity]

They don't "pull" from any one county. I venture that they'll take a student from any county that can financially qualify and regularly attend. Valle is probably 20 minutes from Farmington. They may have some students from there as well. As a matter of fact, I believe Farmington's school district extends into Ste. Genevieve County? Valle is also 20 minutes from Perryville, maybe some students from that county as well, probably not as St. Vincent is in Perryville. Additionally, MSHSAA is a membership organization, have to pay to play. If changes to any particular system need to be made, members need to lobby for the change. I don't think Ste. Gen or Farmington are complaining about Valle.

You got me though, public schools don't give financial aid, they don't need to.

Itd' be nice if they could have the booster club pay for out of district tuition at a public school.

MSHSAA would actually catch a public school doing that.

 

[dashana]

Itd' be nice if they could have the booster club pay for out of district tuition at a public school.

MSHSAA would actually catch a public school doing that.

That's an interesting point. Boils down to reporting and monitoring. schools don't want to rat out the cheaters for fear they'll get caught doing something wrong. That applies to public and private.

 

[Veer2Eternity]

That's an interesting point. Boils down to reporting and monitoring. schools don't want to rat out the cheaters for fear they'll get caught doing something wrong. That applies to public and private.

It's against the rules for public schools not for privates.

 

[Bill_Shakespeare]

Some days I wonder what the world would look like if Valle had met up with Adrian this year..
A Blackhawk win during Veer Jr's Senior szn may have released 2 decades of angst.

A Valle win would unleash even more wrath and fury upon Mosports for eternity once he could see through the tears.

 

[Veer2Eternity]

Some days I wonder what the world would look like if Valle had met up with Adrian this year..
A Blackhawk win during Veer Jr's Senior szn may have released 2 decades of angst.

A Valle win would unleash even more wrath and fury upon Mosports for eternity once he could see through the tears.

You mad.
Paint it how you want. A school that gives scholarships shouldn't be in the playoffs with schools that get punished for doing the same.

 

[HAWKS4LIFE]

Some days I wonder what the world would look like if Valle had met up with Adrian this year..
A Blackhawk win during Veer Jr's Senior szn may have released 2 decades of angst.

A Valle win would unleash even more wrath and fury upon Mosports for eternity once he could see through the tears.

If Valle had Adrian on their side of the bracket, I don't think Lamar would have seen Valle on Saturday! But what do I know?!

 

[Arcola]

You mad.
Paint it how you want. A school that gives scholarships shouldn't be in the playoffs with schools that get punished for doing the same.

Steer, we all know you picked Valle to win but who are you really rooting for?
Lamar or Valle ?

 

[Veer2Eternity]

Steer, we all know you picked Valle to win but who are you really rooting for?
Lamar or Valle ?

I hope Lamar but you can't overcome those last names, 8 am weights and 'higher caliber kids' in private schools.

Valle big.

 

[_slo_mo_]

Valle and other privates supporters/alumni need to check their PRIVATE PRIVILEGE at the door and be prepared to sit down and LISTEN to POLCs* discuss their experience.

*People of Lower Caliber

tehehe

 

[kaskaskiakid]

You mad.
Paint it how you want. A school that gives scholarships shouldn't be in the playoffs with schools that get punished for doing the same.

Veer, do you know anything about how Valle's financial aid works? I have relatives with kids (including fb, softball, baseball, track players) at Valle, and they and others have talked about how the "scholarship" money is distributed. They told me this about 6-8 years ago so prices may have gone up a little. If anyone cares to correct me, feel free.

At that time, tuition for one student was $5K (we're not talking about a $25K per year STL private). For a 2nd child tuition was about $3,500, and 3rd and every child after that was about $2K. That applies for 1st thru 12th grades for all families.

Valle doesn't just decide to offer an area 8th grader free or reduced tuition to attend Valle, or scour the slums of St Mary's looking for talent to offer a free ride. They don't offer the QB or RB or any player cheaper tuition if they turn into stars once they are in high school. Believe me, my great nephews would have been going for free!!

The financial aid is funded through donations and fundraising. Many deceased alums leave money in their wills or obits will request donations to Valle schools.

That's about the extent of your "scholarship" conspiracy.

It's really that simple!!!

 

[Veer2Eternity]

Veer, do you know anything about how Valle's financial aid works? I have relatives with kids (including fb, softball, baseball, track players) at Valle, and they and others have talked about how the "scholarship" money is distributed. They told me this about 6-8 years ago so prices may have gone up a little. If anyone cares to correct me, feel free.

At that time, tuition for one student was $5K (we're not talking about a $25K per year STL private). For a 2nd child tuition was about $3,500, and 3rd and every child after that was about $2K. That applies for 1st thru 12th grades for all families.

Valle doesn't just decide to offer an area 8th grader free or reduced tuition to attend Valle, or scouring the slums of St Mary's looking for talent to offer a free ride. They don't offer the star QB or RB or any player cheaper tuition once they are in high school. Believe me, my great nephews would have been going for free!!

The financial aid is funded through donations and fundraising, and I do believe the parish provides some money. Many deceased alums leave money in their wills or obits will request donations to Valle schools.

That's about the extent of your "scholarship" conspiracy.

It's really that simple!!!

It's not conspiracy.
It's the truth.

Private schools that give 'scholarships' or 'financial aid' aren't playing by the same rules as public schools.

Honestly, I think it's great that parents have that choice and if that's their choice for their child more power to them.

That said, it's an advantage that public schools can't replicate. Toss in a much larger 'district' for private schools , then you can figure out how the class 1 and 2 numbers were so high.

 

[kaskaskiakid]

I'll agree with that. Back when Valle was waltzing thru Class 1 every year, even my Valle friends agreed they didn't belong in Class 1, but not their fault that the multiplier didn't bump them up a class. The current system accomplishes that, and I expect them to bounce back and forth between classes 2 and 3.

 

[Stag101]

Veer, do you know anything about how Valle's financial aid works? I have relatives with kids (including fb, softball, baseball, track players) at Valle, and they and others have talked about how the "scholarship" money is distributed. They told me this about 6-8 years ago so prices may have gone up a little. If anyone cares to correct me, feel free.

At that time, tuition for one student was $5K (we're not talking about a $25K per year STL private). For a 2nd child tuition was about $3,500, and 3rd and every child after that was about $2K. That applies for 1st thru 12th grades for all families.

Valle doesn't just decide to offer an area 8th grader free or reduced tuition to attend Valle, or scour the slums of St Mary's looking for talent to offer a free ride. They don't offer the QB or RB or any player cheaper tuition if they turn into stars once they are in high school. Believe me, my great nephews would have been going for free!!

The financial aid is funded through donations and fundraising. Many deceased alums leave money in their wills or obits will request donations to Valle schools.

That's about the extent of your "scholarship" conspiracy.

It's really that simple!!!

Kask, were the rumors true of them recruiting the freshmen QB from SG to Valle this past summer? I heard the kid attended camp for a few weeks at SG then enrolled at Valle after they offered financial help? Maybe that's more insider info than what you have.

 

[kaskaskiakid]

Cannot confirm or deny, but heard rumors too.

 

[kaskaskiakid]

That said, it's an advantage that public schools can't replicate. Toss in a much larger 'district' for private schools , then you can figure out how the class 1 and 2 numbers were so high.

I think population within a 30 mile radius is a bigger factor than the actual geographic size of the public school district boundaries. Not a lot of Brady Cooks and Luther Burdens running around the backwoods of Ste Gen County.

 

[HAWKS4LIFE]

Kask, were the rumors true of them recruiting the freshmen QB from SG to Valle this past summer? I heard the kid attended camp for a few weeks at SG then enrolled at Valle after they offered financial help? Maybe that's more insider info than what you have.

Maybe he found Jesus?? I am Catholic, so I can say this!

 

[Veer2Eternity]

I think population within a 30 mile radius is a bigger factor than the actual geographic size of the public school district boundaries. Not a lot of Brady Cooks and Luther Burdens running around Ste Gen County.

You get line depth and you can exclude the 'non-high caliber' kids. 3 or 4 kids can make a huge difference and you know that. 2 platoon in class 1? That's about the biggest advantage there is.
You're playing class 1 with a class 3 or 4 roster that was somewhat subsidized with financial aid.

 

[kaskaskiakid]

Under the new rules, Valle is never going to be Class 1 again.

 

[Veer2Eternity]

Under the new rules, Valle is never going to be Class 1 again.

Never say never.

~Abe Lincoln. Maybe.