Predictions for the Trump presidency
- Thread starter Duck_walk
- Start date
Disorganization, petty infighting via the press, battles with Congress, and way too much id.
I suspect you will see some rolling back of health care coverage
I expect a worse budget deficit
The economy may do ok for the next 1-2 years due to massive deficit stimulus, but the benefits will tend towards the rich
Coal employment will not grow
Manufacturing employment will be nearly unchanged
I suspect you will see some rolling back of health care coverage
I expect a worse budget deficit
The economy may do ok for the next 1-2 years due to massive deficit stimulus, but the benefits will tend towards the rich
Coal employment will not grow
Manufacturing employment will be nearly unchanged
They are going to go for a work requirement for Medicaid like Indiana has done. Public employee pensions are in danger at every level of government no matter how well funded. Police are going to feel even more empowered to shoot first think later.
I think your guess of a work requirement is quite plausible. I'd also add that you could see more small copays like some states have done. I'd also guess the ACA mandate goes to 40 hours/week of work, not 30, and maybe to firms of 100 or more.
The Justice Department is going to look the other way on a lot of police stuff. Also on voting rights. Get ready for the real attack on black voting rights.
Public employee pensions are just as much of a state/local issue as a Federal issue. I'm not sure Trump/feds are going to do much there either way is my guess. A lot of that change could have happened either way, and I think it is coming, albeit subject to the limits of state constitutions. This seems like an underappreciated aspect of Greitens winning in MO. It will be interesting to see if the Trump admin tries to redo the Federal employees system. I think they are more likely to shrink the workforce but that's just a guess.
The Justice Department is going to look the other way on a lot of police stuff. Also on voting rights. Get ready for the real attack on black voting rights.
Public employee pensions are just as much of a state/local issue as a Federal issue. I'm not sure Trump/feds are going to do much there either way is my guess. A lot of that change could have happened either way, and I think it is coming, albeit subject to the limits of state constitutions. This seems like an underappreciated aspect of Greitens winning in MO. It will be interesting to see if the Trump admin tries to redo the Federal employees system. I think they are more likely to shrink the workforce but that's just a guess.
Honest questions to both of you gentlemen and I don't mean them as condescending. Simply just questions that I'd like another perspective on.
First, what is the downside to a work requirement for Medicaid? If a person cannot physically work or is actively trying to find employment then, ok, I get it and they should be able to qualify. However, if a person is physically able to and refusing to work, why should I and other taxpayers be forced to pay for their healthcare?
Secondly, the part NM mentioned about an attack on black American rights. What has the Justice Department done under the current administration to help that the next administration won't do or will stop? I really thought the My Brother's Keeper initiative was great and should be supported, but I honestly don't know if it's being successful or not. All I hear about in the news in regards to the black community is the "Black Lives Matter" stuff.
First, what is the downside to a work requirement for Medicaid? If a person cannot physically work or is actively trying to find employment then, ok, I get it and they should be able to qualify. However, if a person is physically able to and refusing to work, why should I and other taxpayers be forced to pay for their healthcare?
Secondly, the part NM mentioned about an attack on black American rights. What has the Justice Department done under the current administration to help that the next administration won't do or will stop? I really thought the My Brother's Keeper initiative was great and should be supported, but I honestly don't know if it's being successful or not. All I hear about in the news in regards to the black community is the "Black Lives Matter" stuff.
The current Justice Department has filed loads of lawsuits against state voting rights changes. It has also investigated numerous police departments, such as Ferguson, and reached consent decrees that improved the quality of policing in many poor communities.
The challenge with a Medicaid work requirement is a lot of the people on Medicaid are single parents who can't afford child care. We are talking about people who are, in the aggregate, really poor and not equipped with the skills to make enough money to afford child care. So what they will do is stay home and leave the health system. Medicaid is already designed in such a way that it isn't providing much of coverage to able bodied adults who aren't taking care of children.
Keep in mind that there is someone working in 3/4 of the households that qualify for Medicaid. Those who don't work generally are disabled, elderly, are in school, or taking care of dependents.
Addressing the education/skills/transportation/child care gaps would be far more effective at incentivizing work.
What are the state voting changes that took away the rights of black Americans to vote? We're not talking about ID laws are we?
So you think policing is going to get worse based on what exactly? I realize there are always going to be racists and some of them may end up as policemen, but I firmly believe the vast majority of public servants are just trying to do the best job they can to serve their communities and keep people safe.
Finally, in terms of Medicaid, your main point seems to be single parents and the cost of childcare. There are programs that subsidize the cost of childcare. Why couldn't these be utilized?
The premise of imposing a work requirement is that people who aren’t working have chosen to be unemployed. But the disappointing track record of work requirements in failing to increase stable employment over time suggests that most people who can work do so and that for people who face major obstacles to employment, work requirements do not help to overcome them.
The data indicate that most Medicaid beneficiaries who can work already do so. Three-quarters of non-elderly adults and children enrolled in Medicaid live in a family with at least one worker. (In California, in fact, Medicaid covers 10 percent of all full-time workers in the state and 20 percent of all part-time workers.[6])
Moreover, one recent study found that people in states with more generous Medicaid eligibility levels and benefits are more likely to leave a job for another position with greater growth potential.[7] This research indicates that comprehensive Medicaid coverage can support work and help beneficiaries take advantage of promising job opportunities without worrying about losing their coverage.
The data indicate that most Medicaid beneficiaries who can work already do so. Three-quarters of non-elderly adults and children enrolled in Medicaid live in a family with at least one worker. (In California, in fact, Medicaid covers 10 percent of all full-time workers in the state and 20 percent of all part-time workers.[6])
Moreover, one recent study found that people in states with more generous Medicaid eligibility levels and benefits are more likely to leave a job for another position with greater growth potential.[7] This research indicates that comprehensive Medicaid coverage can support work and help beneficiaries take advantage of promising job opportunities without worrying about losing their coverage.
Here is the problem we have been told time and time again by the democrats such and Neutron and Cowherd that good jobs such as factory jobs for the under-educated are not coming back those jobs which supplied good pay and health insurance. So what are people to do? What is the answer? What did Hillary offer to help under-educated get jobs that could get them off medicaid beside McDonald's and Wal-mart? If you get one of those jobs you still cannot afford child care and health care, so the Dems said the only other answer is to raise minimum wage to what the factories use to pay and force even the middle class to become poor and on medicaid.
Again not Saying Trump is the answer, but what other option were we giving? I don't know if he will do any good, I hope he does I hope things work out for the best. My fear is it won't but who knows.
His sec of education has spent a large part of her life trying to gut public education.
His AG choice was against the voting rights act.
That's two examples:
You go right down the list and he has people who have taken extreme positions in their assigned areas.
Voter ID is only one example. Keep in mind that a lot of states set the bar extremely high for IDs not for security reasons, but because it is expensive for an 80 year old black person with no drivers license to track down their birth certificate from rural Mississippi.
They made other changes:
- Changing early voting dates to exclude Sundays to avoid Souls to the Polls voting dates
- NC let counties set the number of early voting sites they had, so a majority black county with a 6 figure population had only one early voting location for much of the early voting window to make voting harder. Similar things happened in GA in Republican controlled majority black suburban areas around ATL
- Put limitations on voter registration efforts by third parties that, you guessed it, disproportionately register the young and minorities who generally vote D
- Laws that limit the ability of civic groups to help the elderly and others vote absentee (Arizona did this because this option was very popular with Native Americans who live on reservations and heavily vote D - these people are dirt poor living in the middle of nowhere with little access to a notary)
I'm a little leery of fighting all of these battles when it hides the fact that some of his other appointments are nuts. DeVos is really conservative, but that's not as bad as being insane and in the pocket of Russia like his proposed National Security Advisor is.
I agree they did not offer enough here. Trump has no plan whatsoever to do it, either. No one has answer. It is the biggest problem on earth for developed societies.
I hope the Dems learned a lesson but I kept saying that every election when the kept losing seats in congress it was a sign people were not happy with the direction they were going. They had their chance they either refused to listen or just new better than anybody else. Like Pelosi she is living in a protective bubble/her congressional area and has no idea how the real world works and does not understand or try too, that is why Dems want her out. I don't know what the answer is I know right now we are a very divided nation and it does not look like it is going to get any better as both sides just keep digging in deeper.
The President's party almost always loses seats in Congress in midterms - you might be reading a little too much into this. The recent exceptions came from 9/11 helping Bush in 2002 and from the House's disastrous push for impeachment of Clinton in 1998 - otherwise, the President has lost Congressional seats in every single midterm since Roosevelt's gains continued back in 1934.
Trump is likely to lose seats in the House in 2018 and some governor's seats simply because of this, although the Senate map is so bad for the Ds that they basically have nothing they can win.
How many people do you think based their 2016 election votes on Nancy Pelosi. Either way.
The reality is we would be having a very different conversation if a lot of other Ds had been the nominee. As is the Ds are going to win the majority of votes cast for the Presidency and probably in House races too. You're reading too much into it.
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Real quick I just wanna say thanks to Duck and NM. I haven't had a chance to really read into either of their responses, but will when I get a better chance to do so. For what it's worth, I'm not a fan of Trump (didn't vote for him) so far and am not defending him, but I am conservative politically so take that for what it's worth. I like having discourse over issues with people I may not always agree with, though. I feel like we can all find common ground for the good of the country. It's just a shame the people we vote into office can't seem to do the same.
The things you have mentioned will probably happen, but we are going to see what pay for play really looks like. The one thing that we can count on is tons of stupid usually negative tweets from the twit!
He will get away with everything.
The media has so little credibility with his base now people will just ignore major stories of corruption or bad behavior.
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I'm worried his base will be fine if he mortgages the future of the country to make things a little better now. It's a very Trumpian thing to do
Every person waiting to collect free stuff is black. Did you do this on purpose? Is this a racial post ?
Hey I was as anti-Hillary as you can get.
If Trump can bring good jobs back and not destroy Medicare and SS, I can live with
his flaws.
I'm a little perplexed at how a man of science can support people who don't believe in it. But I will listen.
well oceans have been getting warmer and rising since the end of the last ice age. Cavemen must have built the biggest camp fire you ever saw to make that happen. I hate cold weather anyway. Plus Boston, New York, Miami, LA, SAN Francisco all full of Liberals they could use a good bath
Mitt's opinion
Here's what I know. Donald Trump is a phony, a fraud. His promises are as worthless as a degree from Trump University.
He's playing the American public for suckers: He gets a free ride to the White House and all we get is a lousy hat.
Here's what I know. Donald Trump is a phony, a fraud. His promises are as worthless as a degree from Trump University.
He's playing the American public for suckers: He gets a free ride to the White House and all we get is a lousy hat.
So you don't think it's been getting warmer since the end of the last ice age??? Arctic Glacial Ice extended south as far as northern Missouri. Tell me why all that ice melted if the earth didn't get much warmer back then??Speaking of cavemen, how are things going in your fact free world?
That was his opinion yesterday Duck.
Today he can't say enough good about his boss-to-be...
No doubt the earth is warming that is the problem those who believe that there is nothing man can do to help slow the destruction of the planet they live on!! UGH!!!
I think we have to buy the hat and wouldn't be surprised if they were made in China
Who ever said warming is causing the destruction of the planet???? Warming is good for the earth,,,bad for idiots who built homes at sea levelNo doubt the earth is warming that is the problem those who believe that there is nothing man can do to help slow the destruction of the planet they live on!! UGH!!!
The last two President have already Mortgaged the future of the country for the good of the just the 1%. I kept telling you Neutron dems lost the vote of the Blue Collar worker when they stopped trying help them and only gave lip service.
Given what Romney said during the campaign, can we all agree if he takes a job in the Trump admin he is the biggest sell out in the country???
Duck it's like when you are a fan of a sports team, Even if your team signed one of the players you could not stand, if they won the title you would jump on the bandwagon no matter what. They all thought Trump did not stand a chance, now that he has won they need to get his attention on certain matters.
My heart says Mitt should tell Trump to go pound sand, but my head says that we need adults like Romney to keep Trump somewhat in line.
I really respect Romney. Living close to Salt Lake City, you won't find anyone who knows him who thinks he's anything but a decent guy. I think if he takes the job, he will be doing it because he thinks it's out of duty to country.
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