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Top enrollment C4 possible for C5 2025

Thought it would be interesting to see who was at the top that could be an addition next year if the enrollment goes up.

Initial break before champ factor was 828(festus)
After champ factor it was 900(Mcluer North)

Who is in the range of possibility??
Kearney 823 (only up 6 students from 2023 but town grows yearly)
Festus 828(up 64 from 2023 maybe mass exodus from crimeville i meant STL)
Mcdonald County 830 (up 12 from 2023)
Vianney 838 (enrollment is a roller coaster)
West Plains 844( enrollment going down yearly)
Raytown South 851( enrollment in nose dive was 1057 2 years ago)
St. Dominic 852 ( gaining 60-80 a year)
De Smet 854 (champ factor has them a 2 class bump regardless of this years results so C6 for them)
Grandview 876 (Plus 11 from 2023)
Ft Zumwalt South 883( dropping big every year)
Ft Zumwalt east 896 (on a steady decline)

Side Note Vianney will drop champ factor next year dropping them from 6 to 4 (one of them special cases where they initially hit 5 got bumped to 6 but with no bump would settle into a 4 after movement)

C3 Top enrollment possible C4 in 2025

Enrollment for C4 was 492 prior to champ factor, after champ factor it settled at 514
So who are the top C3 schools and what is their trending enrollment lets take a look

1 St. Clair 507, no change YOY was 523 2 years ago. ( not a high growth area imagine similar enrollment and bubble team for next 5 years)
2 Potosi 506 enrollment down 8 from 2023 but was on steady increase prior. (town has always been a 3 4 bubble depending on birth rate as their is no town growth.)
3 Benton 497 down 20 YOY but had been relatively stable prior
4 Fulton 494 down 26 YOY
5 Odessa 492 down 12 YOY had been slowly increasing prior

these middle classes get a lot of fluctuation due to the champ factor. I believe Vianney is taking a C4 spot next year down from C6 for this reason

Class 6 First vs. Last media rankings of season

Alright, I decided to compare the first released media rankings to the most recent to see who gained/lost the most positions. Who was a disappointment and who was a surprise. The first rankings are on the left and the most recent are on the right.

Class 6
1. Liberty North---------------------------1. CBC
2. CBC------------------------------------2. Nixa
3. Rockhurst-----------------------------3. Lee's summit North
4. DeSmet--------------------------------4. Blue Springs South
5. Lee’s Summit North------------------5. De Smet
6. Nixa----------------------------------6. Seckman
7. Marquette-----------------------------7. Lee's Summit
8. Blue Springs South------------------8. Rock Bridge
9. Oak Park------------------------------9. Park Hill
10. Joplin------------------------------10. Troy Buchanan

Biggest disappointments - Liberty North ranked number 1 and falling completely out is obviously the biggest one here. Rockhurst, Marquette, Oak Park, and Joplin were also ranked in the beginning but not the end. Overall only half of the week 1 ranked teams ended up ranked at the end.
Biggest surprises - I'd say the biggest mover/surprise in the rankings would be Seckman going from NR to 6th. The bottom half is full of teams that weren't ranked in the beginning but I would imagine that is pretty common.

Updated Class 6 Playoff Predictions

D1
Seckman 17 vs. Jackson 35

District Champion - Jackson


D2
CBC 40 vs. Kirkwood 19

District Champion - CBC


D3
De Smet 40 vs. SLUH 14

District Champion - De Smet


D4
Troy Buchanan 28 vs. Rock Bridge 38

District Champion - Rock Bridge


D5
Nixa 42 vs. Joplin 14

District Champion - Nixa


D6
Lee's Summit North 34 vs. Lee's Summit 27

District Champion - Lee's Summit North


D7
Blue Springs South 31 vs. Liberty 17

District Champion - Blue Springs South


D8
Park Hill 34 vs. Oak Park 21

District Champion - Park Hill

State Quarterfinals

Jackson 21 vs. CBC 41
Nixa 27 vs. Lee's Summit North 28
De Smet 34 vs. Rock Bridge 26
Blue Springs South 35 vs. Park Hill 21

State Semifinals

CBC 24 vs. Lee's Summit North 31
De Smet 21 vs. Blue Springs South 34

State Championship

Lee's Summit North 28 vs. Blue Springs South 22

State Champion - Lee's Summit North


Different champ than what was projected last week I believe and I am not surprised. Class 6 has a bunch of one score games and many that could go either way. Can't wait to see how it plays out.

On3 Composite Rankings

The following are the On3 composite rankings going into this weeks games for each class. I'd like to hear what you guys think about the accuracy of these rankings compared to others and how close they seem to be to accurate. They give a win probability for this week so I have put that in as well.

Class 6
1) Lee's Summit North (79%)
2) Nixa (94%)
3) Blue Springs South (77%)
4) CBC (92%)
5) Liberty North (No data)
6) Rockhurst (No data)
7) Lee's Summit (21%)
8) De Smet (94%)
9) Liberty (23%)
10) Rock Bridge (54%)

Class 5
1) Cardinal Ritter (97%)
2) Helias (69%) - giggity
3) Carthage (53%)
4) Platte County (43%)
5) St. Pius X (57%)
6) Republic (54%)
7) Branson (46%)
8) Webb City (47%)
9) Eureka (No data)
10) Lebanon (31%)

Class 4
1) Lutheran North (100%)
2) Kearney (86%)
3) Festus (100%)
4) Smithville (No data)
5) Hannibal (78%)
6) Savannah (14%)
7) Warrenton (22%)
8) Pleasant Hill (60%)
9) Warrensburg (40%)
10) Nevada (No data)

Class 3
1) Blair Oaks (98%)
2) Seneca (98%)
3) Maryville (97%)
4) Lift for Life (86%)
5) Mt. Vernon (71%)
6) Borgia (No data)
7) Dexter (No data)
8) Strafford (29%)
9) Southern Boone (No data)
10) Odessa (79%)

Class 2
1) Valle Catholic (96%)
2) Fair Grove (No data)
3) Bowling Green (96%)
4) Lamar (96%)
5) Mid-Buchanan (81%)
6) Lafayette County (75%)
7) Warsaw (4%)
8) Caruthersville (4%)
9) South Shelby (69%) - giggity
10) Pembroke Hill (No data)

Class 1 (after the top three, it was hard to find so I left them out)
1) Marionville (95%)
2) St. Vincent (93%)
3) Adrian (99%)

Kearney observations

First off, the backup quarterback is throwing a more accurate ball than anyone expected, which is a huge plus, I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets more and more snap's.


Theo Grace had a fantastic performance, playing all over the field. He was also dominant at fullback, delivering massive hits, and could very well end up as Defensive Player of the Year. His versatility and physicality stood out all night.


The sophomore class really showed out. The Stucky twins, both sophomores, are already looking like future stars. The RB twin was especially impressive, showing serious potential to dominate the next few years.


Aiden Aerrelona was another standout—he might end up being an all-state safety this year. He was everywhere on defense and made an impact all over the field he should have had two picks but was a force nonetheless.


Grant Noland is showing why he's considered one of the top players in 4A. He was excellent on offense and has the potential to pick off a few passes in the playoffs, especially given how quickly the pocket collapses around opposing teams qbs.


Isaac Beaver is a force to be reckoned with. After his brother went down with an injury, Isaac stepped up and played like a man possessed. He was everywhere, dominating on both sides of the ball. His performance was so impressive that I heard 250LB 35 year old men in the stands saying “that is a grown ass f’ing man, glad I’m not out there”


Minnick had a few tricks up his sleeve too. Using Theo Grace at fullback was a great move, and it reminded me of his brother’s style of play who plays Fullback at Oregon. But then, he put one of the Beaver twins at fullback, and honestly, it was the best high school fullback performance I’ve seen in 50 years of watching football. Anyone who was at the game saw something special and I would encourage you to track that play down.


Kearney’s offense is powerful, especially with Theo and the Beavers in the backfield. They could run over the rest of their schedule with that kind of physicality. If they continue to play this way, the rest of their schedule could end up in thr E.R.


Minnick clearly knows what he's doing—he understands that to repeat as champions, Kearney needs to bring a level of physicality that’s unmatched. And when this years team turns it up, it’s something you don’t see at any level of high school football.


Kearney is explosive. Their players are next-level, and the kind of impact they're having on defense, particularly with the Theo and Beavers, is something you have to see in person. If anyone hasn’t watched the film yet, I highly recommend it, especially to see how dominant these players are.


Looking ahead, Kearney’s going to be a serious force, and I wouldn’t be surprised if bodies are carted off the field in their next big matchup. They’re playing with a level of intensity and power that will be tough for any team to match.


Kearney 44- Savanah 0 pts vs Kearney starting defense but may score on the backups.

Kearney starting D is giving up less than 3 pts a game this season and that’s with games against park hill, NKC, grain valley and fort Osage.

Spoke with my guy at park hill he thought Kearney had the team to turbo Liberty.
  • Haha
Reactions: Veer2Eternity

William Chrisman open

https://x.com/CoachRoseIvey
Michael Rose-Ivey

@CoachRoseIvey

Thank you
@ChrismanBearsFB
for the opportunity to be the head football coach the past 3 years. I unfortunately will not be returning as the head coach next season. I appreciate all those who supported our program and wish the William Chrisman community nothing but the best. I am open to all coaching opportunities for the upcoming season. Please reach out directly.

Apparently, St. Louis administrators want….

Apparently, St. Louis administrators want to move all varsity football contests to 6pm starting next year.

They say “it’s for the kids” when we all know it’s so they get out a little earlier.

They’re going to get some kid killed in August doing that. Parents getting off work will struggle to be there at kickoff, not to mention officials.

I was once the honcho coach at a hs that had been perennial doormats. When we won the first district title in 30 years of football at the school, he actually said “for me, that’s just one more night I’ve got to be out.”

There’s some good supportive ones out there, but too many are self-serving demagogues trying to fatten their retirement.

Don’t allow building principals get a sway in athletics. They don’t have a clue “What’s best for kids.” They’re on the same level as MSHSAA…or wildebeests…or Loretta Switt…or that no-talent arm twirler Bernadette from “ZOOM.”

NCAA Sagarin Ratings

1. B1G (Ohio State)
2. SEC (Texas)
3. SEC (Alabama)
4. SEC (Mississippi)
5. IND (Notre Dame)
6. SEC (Georgia)
7. B1G (Oregon)
8. B1G (Penn State)
9. SEC (Tennessee)
10. SEC (South Carolina)
11. ACC (Miami)
12. B1G (Indiana)
13. SEC (Texas A&M)
14. SEC (LSU)


8 of top 14 in SEC.

Will they get 4 playoff bids?

Updated Class 4 Playoff Predictions

D1
Festus 34 vs. Perryville 6

District Champion - Festus


D2
Gateway 21 vs. Pacific 26

District Champion - Pacific


D3
Lutheran North 62 vs. Miller Career Academy 0

District Champion - Lutheran North


D4
Parkway North 28 vs. Orchard Farm 26

District Champion - Parkway North


D5
Warrenton 35 vs. Hannibal 24

District Champion - Warrenton


D6
West Plains 26 vs. Bolivar 27

District Champion - Bolivar


D7
Pleasant Hill 31 vs. Warrensburg 24

District Champion - Pleasant Hill


D8
Kearney 38 vs. Savannah 14

District Champion - Kearney

State Quarterfinals

Festus 40 vs. Pacific 14
Warrenton 35 vs. Bolivar 14
Lutheran North 42 vs. Parkway North 21
Pleasant Hill 17 vs. Kearney 38

State Semifinals

Festus 14 vs. Warrenton 27
Lutheran North 28 vs. Kearney 35

State Championship

Kearney 31 vs. Warrenton 20

State Champion - Kearney


We all know the real state championship game takes place in the semifinals so that will be one to watch for sure. The other side of the bracket seems extremely weak.

Good news

“This is a pretty stunning and rapid reversal of drug overdose mortality numbers,” said Brandon Marshall, a Brown University researcher who studies overdose trends.

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