Who will admit they were wrong?

[kaskaskiakid]

Yesterday Dr. Fauci projected that the number of deaths in the US from covid19 from 100,000-240,000, with President Trump concurring by stating "possibly as many as 240,000". Yesterday we went over 4,000 deaths, so if correct there is a lot of dying going to happen in the next months.

So, I am not making making light of the situation or looking for an "I told you so" moment. But over the past 2 months, many of you have drastically underestimated the number of deaths from covid in the US. I went back and read many of the early predictions on here. Many of you said "no more than a regular flu season", "8,000-10,000 total", etc. So.......

WHO IS MAN ENOUGH TO ADMIT YOU WERE WRONG????

 

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

Yesterday Dr. Fauci projected that the number of deaths in the US from covid19 from 100,000-240,000, with President Trump concurring by stating "possibly as many as 240,000". Yesterday we went over 4,000 deaths, so if correct there is a lot of dying going to happen in the next months.

So, I am not making making light of the situation or looking for an "I told you so" moment. But over the past 2 months, many of you have underestimated the number of deaths from covid in the US. I went back and read many of the early predictions on here. Many of you said "no more than a regular flu season", "8,000-10,000 total", etc. So.......

WHO IS MAN ENOUGH TO ADMIT YOU WERE WRONG????

I’ve been wrong several times on this though I never said it is just the flu. I don’t know if I posted a number on here or not but my guess would have been about 20K. Unfortunately we may be over that number in about 10-12 days.

I still don’t think I’m buying 200,000 though. It looks like California and Washington have a pretty good handle on it while it is still out of control in NYC and New Orleans.

 

[SadButTrue]

I’ve been wrong several times on this though I never said it is just the flu. I don’t know if I posted a number on here or not but my guess would have been about 20K. Unfortunately we may be over that number in about 10-12 days.

I still don’t think I’m buying 200,000 though. It looks like California and Washington have a pretty good handle on it while it is still out of control in NYC and New Orleans.

I agree, but what city or state is on the verge of becoming the next New York or New Orleans?
The goof ball senator in Florida has sure been playing with fire.

 

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

I agree, but what city or state is on the verge of becoming the next New York or New Orleans?
The goof ball senator in Florida has sure been playing with fire.

My guess is probably Detroit but the NYC metro is still about 50% of the cases and deaths.

 

[Neutron Monster]

My guess is probably Detroit but the NYC metro is still about 50% of the cases and deaths.

I'll take Miami, too.

 

[millerbleach]

Yesterday Dr. Fauci projected that the number of deaths in the US from covid19 from 100,000-240,000, with President Trump concurring by stating "possibly as many as 240,000". Yesterday we went over 4,000 deaths, so if correct there is a lot of dying going to happen in the next months.

So, I am not making making light of the situation or looking for an "I told you so" moment. But over the past 2 months, many of you have drastically underestimated the number of deaths from covid in the US. I went back and read many of the early predictions on here. Many of you said "no more than a regular flu season", "8,000-10,000 total", etc. So.......

WHO IS MAN ENOUGH TO ADMIT YOU WERE WRONG????

It certainly looks like the number I predicted will be way low but until I see 100K i'm not buying it. I did say at the time my prediction was based on the numbers we knew and IF China was accurate. I also underestimated the ability of liberal mayors and Governors to be prepared.
I still think the reaction is way overblown though. I wish the numbers available told who the deaths are such as nursing home residents, HIV patients, etc.
I noticed you wouldn't put your neck on the chopping block by giving an estimate. I was wrong but you can't lose if you don't play.

 

[you_dont_know_me]

I see that the White House has raised predictions and I will admit it got my attention.

We still have NO idea what is going to happen.

But, I definitely could be wrong. All I'm saying is we don't have enough reliable data to know anything right now.

If I'm the government leadership, I'm going to be cautious and round numbers up and try to get people's attention though.

I'm processing... no one is "wrong" yet. But, it doesn't look great.

I will say, we still need about 44.8 million more infections to be caught up the flu, and 58000 deaths. But, sadly, we may get there.

 

[kaskaskiakid]

I noticed you wouldn't put your neck on the chopping block by giving an estimate. I was wrong but you can't lose if you don't play.

I said I wouldn't play the "I told you so card" card. I had a college professor convince me many years ago that two things are inevitable - a worldwide pandemic and another New Madrid earthquake - and not "if" but "when".

No, I didn't predict a number of deaths because I knew that is impossible. Admittedly, I wasn't concerned the first few times I heard the word coronavirus, and being aware of how the media sensationalizes everything. But once I heard knowledgeable scientists making predictions on the possibility of the mortality rates, I was open to the possible severity.

Actually, this probably isn't going to be the "big one" that kills millions. We have lulled ourselves into a false sense of security by thinking modern medicine can cure any epidemic that arises. The fact is that viruses, germs, and bacteria are capable of constantly evolving, adapting, mutating, and becoming resistant to our drugs. Pandemics have occurred throughout world history and will continue from time to time. I happen to believe it is Mother Nature's way of controlling overpopulation, just like CWD in deer population.

I commend you for owning up, despite your partisan jab at liberal mayors and governors. Just as many republicans underestimated this crisis. Not everything is political and "your team" doesn't have to win every time.

 

[hb1025]

I don't think anybody thought this would be like this at the start of it.I was one who didn't think it would be like this.I was in the hospital from March 4th to March 17th and the doctors and nurses I talked to thought the media was making this way to big.

 

[kaskaskiakid]

I would think about changing doctors.

 

[millerbleach]

I said I wouldn't play the "I told you so card" card.

So, why are you?

 

[millerbleach]

I commend you for owning up, despite your partisan jab at liberal mayors and governors. Just as many republicans underestimated this crisis. Not everything is political and "your team" doesn't have to win every time.

Why wouldn't I own what I said?
It's when people say I said things I didn't I don't own them.
Show me the conservative run and controlled places this is a big problem. How can you govern a large city and not be ready for a pandemic/terrorist attack situation? Especially NY City! It isn't something that will hamper rural areas near as much. Even at that, we are generally better prepared for hard times.

 

[Neutron Monster]

It certainly looks like the number I predicted will be way low but until I see 100K i'm not buying it. I did say at the time my prediction was based on the numbers we knew and IF China was accurate. I also underestimated the ability of liberal mayors and Governors to be prepared.
I still think the reaction is way overblown though. I wish the numbers available told who the deaths are such as nursing home residents, HIV patients, etc.
I noticed you wouldn't put your neck on the chopping block by giving an estimate. I was wrong but you can't lose if you don't play.

Given none of us have expertise, the rational answer to give is something along the lines of whatever the CDC thinks? I mean I could tell you that was way more than 7,000 but there’s no way I could be more accurate than them

 

[Neutron Monster]

I would think about changing doctors.

Eh. They’re medical doctors and nurses, not epidemiologists.

 

[Neutron Monster]

I see that the White House has raised predictions and I will admit it got my attention.

We still have NO idea what is going to happen.

But, I definitely could be wrong. All I'm saying is we don't have enough reliable data to know anything right now.

If I'm the government leadership, I'm going to be cautious and round numbers up and try to get people's attention though.

I'm processing... no one is "wrong" yet. But, it doesn't look great.

I will say, we still need about 44.8 million more infections to be caught up the flu, and 58000 deaths. But, sadly, we may get there.

The problem is we don’t need 45 M infections to get to 60000 deaths here.

 

[kaskaskiakid]

Show me the conservative run and controlled places this is a big problem

THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[3Rfan]

I said I wouldn't play the "I told you so card" card. I had a college professor convince me many years ago that two things are inevitable - a worldwide pandemic and another New Madrid earthquake - and not "if" but "when".

No, I didn't predict a number of deaths because I knew that is impossible. Admittedly, I wasn't concerned the first few times I heard the word coronavirus, and being aware of how the media sensationalizes everything. But once I heard knowledgeable scientists making predictions on the possibility of the mortality rates, I was open to the possible severity.

Actually, this probably isn't going to be the "big one" that kills millions. We have lulled ourselves into a false sense of security by thinking modern medicine can cure any epidemic that arises. The fact is that viruses, germs, and bacteria are capable of constantly evolving, adapting, mutating, and becoming resistant to our drugs. Pandemics have occurred throughout world history and will continue from time to time. I happen to believe it is Mother Nature's way of controlling overpopulation, just like CWD in deer population.

I commend you for owning up, despite your partisan jab at liberal mayors and governors. Just as many republicans underestimated this crisis. Not everything is political and "your team" doesn't have to win every time.

Don't remind of the New Madrid quake issue, I'm way too close to think about what will happen when the 'big one' comes again. We've had a lot of small ones around semo lately which makes me think it be could sooner rather than later. I don't have a clue how many it would kill immediately but the destruction and misery that will come after the fact will be extremely devastating to this area and a much wider area than most folks think it would. The last big one made the freakin Mississippi River run backwards. The experts say all the sandy soil farmland that is so good for that purpose will turn to mush and swallow up some things and others, such as graveyards will turn upside down and will caskets coming to the surface. There will be no water, sewer systems, electric, phone service. roads and bridges will be destroyed so getting help will be very difficult. I hope me or mine don't get this virus but I sure hope me and the rest of my family ain't around to see the big one.

 

[MGHS]

I said 10-25 thousand...It might go a bit higher but I doubt it hit's 250,000. Now of course if they count everyone who is positive and doesn't die from a C19 but dies in that time frame it could even go higher than that.

 

[kaskaskiakid]

Yeah 4,000 deaths world wide....8 billion humans on earth....HMMMMM pretty contained.

Let me refresh your memory from March 11.

 

[Texascap]

Let me refresh your memory from March 11.

Who is responsible for the Wuhan Virus? You sound like the Chinese media.

 

[hb1025]

I would think about changing doctors.

My point was not only me and others that thought this wouldn't be that bad there were doctors and nurses that thought the same. Yes we were wrong and a whole lot of people were wrong.

 

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

I definitely look like I was low on the fatality rate. There may be a lot of untested people that have had it and recovered but the fatality rate among confirmed tests is now over 2% and in most states it over 1%. Originally I thought the low end of this looked like about .6%. It is looking more like it is at least 1%.

 

[Draftpik]

I definitely look like I was low on the fatality rate. There may be a lot of untested people that have had it and recovered but the fatality rate among confirmed tests is now over 2% and in most states it over 1%. Originally I thought the low end of this looked like about .6%. It is looking more like it is at least 1%.

We still dont know the denominator. The models are yesterday's stats if it continues the same everyday. Nobody knows.

 

[millerbleach]

The only way to measure this disease to others is deaths per population. That won't be known until it's over and isn't real helpful then. With flu death rates they estimate how many people had it but weren't treated or tested. If you could do that here, the rates would be more accurate.

 

[kaskaskiakid]

Agree we can't believe the figures with so many dying with "underlying conditions". I have a feeling many of the 70+ yr olds dying were in poor health to begin with. I would be curious as to how many deaths are occurring in healthy people.

 

[you_dont_know_me]

I’d like to know number of tests that are positive percentage wise too, and that daily. Is percent of positives going up, down, is it steady? We also should be seeing a lot of recovered cases pretty soon in us numbers as many have been sick quite a while

 

[millerbleach]

I’d like to know number of tests that are positive percentage wise too, and that daily. Is percent of positives going up, down, is it steady? We also should be seeing a lot of recovered cases pretty soon in us numbers as many have been sick quite a while

The % of positives of those tested in Mo. so far is around 10%. I would guess it is going down with more tested since the criteria to get tested is lessened.

 

[Draftpik]

The % of positives of those tested in Mo. so far is around 10%. I would guess it is going down with more tested since the criteria to get tested is lessened.

I imagine some have already died from it that we don't know, because they were not tested. In Italy this has no doubt happened. The death toll is higher. I was sick with the flu shortly after the wife reported she'd been in contact with a confirmed case. Neither of us were tested. This was 4 weeks ago maybe more.

 

[3Rfan]

I imagine some have already died from it that we don't know, because they were not tested. In Italy this has no doubt happened. The death toll is higher. I was sick with the flu shortly after the wife reported she'd been in contact with a confirmed case. Neither of us were tested. This was 4 weeks ago maybe more.

So how do you know it was the flu?

 

[Draftpik]

So how do you know it was the flu?

I don't.

 

[MGHS]

Let me refresh your memory from March 11.

If you look in the prediction thread I clearly stated 15-25 thousand in the first wave and 2-10 in the second wave if I recall that was on March 23rd or 24th..So it clearly is you who needs a refresher in my predictions but I know you knew that and as a partisan hack who has no interest in facts, truth or integrity you would post that in a skewed way.

 

[you_dont_know_me]

Does anyone feel better pointing fingers? Honestly? It’s amazing how we are trained to even politicize this!

 

[Texascap]

Does anyone feel better pointing fingers? Honestly? It’s amazing how we are trained to even politicize this!

You are taking the high road. Good job.

 

[kaskaskiakid]

CBS reported 9,000 recovered this morning

 

[bullitpdq68]

I never predicted numbers, I thought this thing might be bad, what I badly miss calculated was us shutting down the country.

What was interesting I watched NBC this morning and they interviewed at Bellevue hospital and they are having no issue Plenty of PPE. They went inside and it was calm there was no mass hysteria like you see at the others, and he even said they were opening up parts of the hospital that they hadn't used in 25 years to accommodate the influx. However They prepared months ago he said. I think that is the problem many hospitals didn't do anything and now are trying to get things during the disaster, instead of preparing for it months in advance.

 

[kaskaskiakid]

We do need to stop the blame game over covid. No one was prepared for this. As bad as this is, it's not going to be a massive killer that could possibly happen. I think we have had a wake up call.

 

[bullitpdq68]

We do need to stop the blame game over covid. No one was prepared for this. As bad as this is, it's not going to be a massive killer that could possibly happen. I think we have had a wake up call.

This was overall badly miscalculated for sure. The blame game needs to stop that is for sure. Everybody got caught flat footed at the starting gate for this. I had been on disaster teams for years and what is funny when we played our disaster games to see how things would go, never was a global pandemic ever gamed. I think we all knew what would happen and just didn't want to go there.

Second thing is the United states no matter were you stand needs manufacturing, not just for jobs, but this has proven when faced with a global crises you cannot count on just one country to provide everything. During WWII we were able to be self sufficient, during this the biggest problem I have seen is we are relying on other countries to provide what we need and the logistics of that is not working out for us.