The first time I bet on NFL games I went with my favorite teams and didn't look at match-ups. I learned real quick you can't do that. You have to look at things like if it's on Nat'l TV, or how they played the previous week. Whether the team is coming of an emotional win, and playing a down team. For example, Arizona vs San Fran. I stayed away from them. It's not suprising that a teams behavior is much the same as in high school or college. I look at the home game factor. It's been huge. Then you look at match-ups rec. vs corners and run defense. This has worked best for me.
I missed on the Steelers game though, stayed away from Antonio Brown for the Seahawks have Sherman, but....only to see Big Ben throw to the other side. I could've done better today. It's fun though. I hear there's a kid that has won $3 million, he wrote a computer program that includes player behavior. Lol way smarter than me.