Joe Maddon opts out

[Duck_walk]

Re: Matheny took a WS champ (2011) and cant beat SF

Same left fielder. Same Catcher. Added Wainwright who was out that year.
Upgrades at Third, Second, Centerfield, and Shortstop.

Game 7 in 2011 we started Theriot and Shoemaker and still won.
Our bullpen was full of journeymen, but was handled to perfection by someone
who wasn't afraid to be creative or leave a reliever in for more that one inning in the playoffs.

 

[3Rfan]

Re: Matheny took a WS champ (2011) and cant beat SF

Kershaw WAS being Kershaw against the Cardinals, just not the Kershaw that faces other teams. It is not unusual at all for the Birds to get to him, especially in the playoffs.

 

[WCS Coach]

Originally posted by wccards21:

Originally posted by WCS Coach:

The Cubs will have to be taken seriously from now on. They have a good skipper to go with good young talent.

You have finally said something that I can say....I agree with

Maddon was just a small step. Wait for the free agency market to open up. I think Lester will be in Chicago by December, and Theo could have a few other tricks up his sleeve.

That is a flaw in your thinking, but hang in there.

 

[Neutron Monster]

Edwards and Johnson are hard to project, but they both show as 0 WAR at Steamer.

Yes, Jackson is in there.

I doubt they trade Baez until he plays a little better.

Maeda makes a lot of sense, that's the kind of move I expect Theo to make. Rumor mill is he won't be posted this year, though.

Didn't they make a huge bid on the last guy to get posted or the last Cuban (I forget which one it was)?

 

[wccards21]

Originally posted by Neutron Monster:
Edwards and Johnson are hard to project, but they both show as 0 WAR at Steamer.

Yes, Jackson is in there.

I doubt they trade Baez until he plays a little better.

Maeda makes a lot of sense, that's the kind of move I expect Theo to make. Rumor mill is he won't be posted this year, though.

Didn't they make a huge bid on the last guy to get posted or the last Cuban (I forget which one it was)?

Those 2 are hard to project, but I think they could both easily post Edwin Jackson and Travis Wood numbers from last season. That is honestly not asking a whole lot

I don't think will be traded right now, but I think he has the most potential to be traded. Castro is a 3 time All Star at 24 with....who is on pace to have over 3,000 career hits. They just traded for Russell. Baez makes the most sense...IFFFFF there is a trade

I have heard both on Maeda. I heard the first rumor where he would. Then they pulled him back. I saw another report where he would. I guess we will find out soon enough

Last guy the Cubs made a big bid on was Tanaka. They worked out the guy who signed in Boston, but his abilitys match up similar to some players they already have in the minors, so it would have been wasted money. Soler was the last "big" international signing, and we are about to find out what he has in the tank.

I think the Cubs are going to look like:

Rotation: Lester, Arrieta, Hendricks, Turner, Edwards/Johnson/Free Agent

Coghlan-LF
Castro-SS
Rizzo-1st
Soler-RF
Baez- 2nd
Valbuena-3rd(until Bryant in May...then throw this all away)
Castillo-C
Alcantara-CF
Pitcher

 

[3Rfan]

Did you really just say a 24 year old is "on pace" to have 3000 hits? Is Matt Carpenter also "on pace" for 3000 hits?

 

[wccards21]

Originally posted by 3Rfan:
Did you really just say a 24 year old is "on pace" to have 3000 hits? Is Matt Carpenter also "on pace" for 3000 hits?

You're a special sort of stupid, aren't you?

He turns 25 in March and will cross 1000 career hits if he plays a full season. It's pretty safe to say at that rate, he will get 3000 hits. He is out pacing Jeter when Jeter was this age. Anything else I can help you with?

 

[3Rfan]

I guess I am but that's ALL assuming he stays healthy and keeps up that pace. Might wanna wait til he's a little closer and still healthy to start talking about 3000. I'll let ya know if need further assistance.

 

[wccards21]

Aren't all "on pace"assumptions? Thanks for that, as that was never thought of

He is going into year 5 and has had 1 injury, and it was a fluke ankle issue last year. He was 2nd on the list of active player consecutive games played. Pretty good bet that he is going to be healthy

 

[Neutron Monster]

Your estimation of his likelihood to reach 3,000 hits is waaaaaay off.

Jeter was a lot better hitter by 25; that's rather important. He was hitting about .330 a season then. Castro hasn't hit .300 since 2011.

Jeter also was a much better player; Castro may not be in a starting lineup at age 35 skill-wise. And Jeter had great health; not everyone stays in the lineup that often.

A realistic analysis of Castro doesn't get you to 3,000 hits.

 

[wccards21]

They are two different style of hitters. If Jeter was that much better, why does Castro have over a full seasons worth of hits more than Jeter at the same age? Lot more doubles? I'll go do the math in a few when I can

Jeter being a much better player at that age is also a stretch if you want to call mine a stretch. Jeter has certainly played in a better system at that age than Castro, but Jeter ranks out horribly defensively, while Castro ranks in at league average.

You put Jeter in any other lineup at that time, he is at best Nomar...Good, not great for his whole career. Borderline HOF

 

[3Rfan]

Dude played half his life for the same team and it was the YANKEES! That alone will get him a LOT of votes for the HOF. I guess you think he won't be a first ballot HOFer?

 

[wccards21]

Did I say that anywhere? Please point me in the direction where I said that?

Now back to someone who can have a sensible discussion

Jeter through 24:
588 hits
85 doubles
.295 avg
.355 OBP

Castro through 24:
846 hits
163 doubles
.286 avg
.327 OBP

The main difference between the avg and obp come down to difference in walks, which Jeter tends to have 30+ more in his early years

 

[3Rfan]

OK look at your post #6949. The last two words say borderline HOF. How many borderline HOF guys get in on the first ballot? I'm not at all sold on how great Jeter was as player, but he played a for LONG time for the same team in a huge market and played pretty well. He is a no doubt HOFer, not a borderline guy when it comes to the voters that will make that decision.

 

[wccards21]

Dear Lord...Just crawl back into bed

If you can't read into that comparison,I can't help you. If you can't specifically show me where I said he would not make the hall of fame his 1st time, then just stop while you think you're ahead.

 

[Neutron Monster]

Stop the selective stat sampling and face reality. Jeter was a 6 WAR player hitting .330 at the age of 24. Castro is a .280 hitter over the past three years, a 2 WAR player. Yes, he had a head start, but jeter was a much, much better player who projected as being a starting ML player for a longer period of time than Castro does.

You're also starting with the premise that jeter would have been projected to reach 3,000 hits at age 24. I may have taken the under on him too. It's really hard to stay healthy and good that long. We underestimate how hard it is to reach 3,000 hits.

And LOL at pulling doubles out.

Also LOL at using career averages for a 24 year old. Performance over the preceding two seasons is a heck of a lot more meaningful for someone who isn't even at the peak of their career.

I would bet a large amount of money Castro never reaches 3,000 hits. His decline in batting average is important, as is his sub-all star level of play. He won't be a regular at the age of 35. He won't last long enough to get there.

 

[wccards21]

I pulled a couple of the most commonly used stats, sorry to offend you with numbers that disagree with your thoughts.

WAR is useless in a discussion between two players like this. Jeter played on the Yankees when they were absolutely stacked with cash hungry,steroided freaks. Of course Jeter is going to put up a higher WAR, when he is being knocked in more and has a better offensive surrounding him than Castro does. Because I'm going to assume that you're smart enough to know that the 2001 Yankees are not the 2010 Cubs.

And preceding two years. Well I'm guessing not too many 23 years olds are false accused of raped and has $4 million frozen in their bank account due to a frivolous lawsuit in the same year while going through his 3rd coach in 3 years. But yea, I'd completely expect him to continue putting up numbers in that situation.

I also love your comment of Sub All Star play, considering he has been in the game 3 of his 4 full seasons. Also has been voted in by his peers....but I'm sure you're right, he is not an All Star Caliber player. I'm also a fan of the health comments, even though there is nothing that proves he won't be healthy. He has played 96% of the total games since he has come up to Chicago, with missing the bulk of his time due to his cousin and friend being killed this summer

 

[Neutron Monster]

WAR is a really good stat in terms of projecting the longevity of a player. Guys decline in their 30s. That's a fact. If you start from a higher place you will generally stick around for longer.

You really don't get what WAR is if you think jeter gets more WAR for being on the yanks instead of being on the Cubs. Mike Trout was putting up 10 WAR seasons on sub .500 angels teams.

Castro hasn't hit .300 since 2011. That's really important. The fact is he's not a hitting stud. Jeter was at age 24.

Castro was an all star because they had to pick someone on the Cubs. We aren't talking about the second coming of jeter or Tulo here.

 

[wccards21]

So Rizzo and Shark were not selected? LaHair in 2012? Just making sure he was selected because he had to selected

 

[3Rfan]

Cards I'm sure all "borderline HOFers" get in on the first ballot. You can say lot without actually saying it word for word. I'll be crawling into bed pretty soon.

 

[wccards21]

And apparently I have to grab the crayons to explain things to you.

IF he was on another team, was the statement. It's safe to assume that no other team stacked rosters like the Yankees of the late 90s and 2000s. So in the most the simplest way I can explain it to you....Jeter would not have put up his offensive numbers like he did in probably any other organization during his career. I'm not the only person to even make that argument, considering it is a the largest discussion when people scream about Jeter being the best ever....which I can now assume would include you

 

[Drop.Tine]

I could careless about Jeter or Castro at this point.


But.



WAR is the most overrated/over talked stat there is in baseball. It's comparing a player to mystical magical not real player or situation.


Carry on.

 

[Neutron Monster]

No, that's silly, the idea of "lineup protection" is generally a myth.

I can agree he probably received extra AB because they scored a lot of runs but much of that (2014 vs. 1998) is the difference in era (average AL team in 1998 scored a lot more runs than the average 2014 NL team) just as much as its the Cubs versus the Yanks.

Derek Jeter would have been a great player on any team. You don't hit 3,400 hits by accident.

 

[wccards21]

I'm not arguing the hits in that situation. It's the "extra" stats, like RBIs and Runs scored.Those solely depend on the team you play for. If you play on a bad offensive team, one can assume those numbers would be lower. If you play in a high powered offense, one can assume an uptick in those numbers

I would maybe cut 100 or so hits out of his total in this scenario. Hit totals are player dependent more than team. Granted you have the defensive factors and such...but that's irrelevant at this juncture


And DT....it is overrated, much of saber is. However, they are all very useful along with traditional stats. The arguments on the extreme ends of both are ridiculous.

 

[Neutron Monster]

Originally posted by Drop.Tine:

I could careless about Jeter or Castro at this point.


But.



WAR is the most overrated/over talked stat there is in baseball. It's comparing a player to mystical magical not real player or situation.


Carry on.

Fair enough, but you can pick your stat of choice on hitting and there's no real comparison between Castro and Jeter even when adjusted for league average.

 

[Neutron Monster]

Originally posted by wccards21:
I'm not arguing the hits in that situation. It's the "extra" stats, like RBIs and Runs scored.Those solely depend on the team you play for. If you play on a bad offensive team, one can assume those numbers would be lower. If you play in a high powered offense, one can assume an uptick in those numbers

I would maybe cut 100 or so hits out of his total in this scenario. Hit totals are player dependent more than team. Granted you have the defensive factors and such...but that's irrelevant at this juncture


And DT....it is overrated, much of saber is. However, they are all very useful along with traditional stats. The arguments on the extreme ends of both are ridiculous.

yes on RBI and runs. Also dependent upon spot in batting order.

Hit totals are team dependent to the extent that you get to the plate more. Jeter's team had a DH, not a pitcher - that's worth a few AB a season. Plus, steroid era end + bigger strike zone has lowered scoring and increased outs.

Average NL team scored 3.95 runs a game and had an OBP of .312 this year. AL OBP in 2004 was .338 (with the Yanks posting even better than that in most years). Those .026+ points could easily be worth 30-40 AB a year for a top of the lineup hitter like Jeter.

Plus, Jeter could DH on off days (which he did 73 times at the end of his career). Those are found hits that don't exist for NL players.

You could convince me that Jeter would have lost ~200 hits by moving to an NL team today instead of playing for the 1990s and 2000s Yankees. He would still be a surefire Hall of Famer and have well over 3,000 hits even in that scenario. But it's a reminder that it's become harder to hit that plateau.
This post was edited on 11/3 11:26 AM by Neutron Monster

 

[3Rfan]

Cards I guess you missed the part that said "I'm not sold on how great Jeter was as a player." That has NOTHING to with whether or not he'll be first ballot HOFer.