Increasing Medical Capacity

[Draftpik]

Has anyone heard the government speak about this? Ships with 1,000 beds are not going to cover it.
What happens when they turn us all loose and 500,000 old people die and others are sent home to die on the couch? If we don't have enough ICU beds, ventilators why does any of this matter? It's not like economy is going to just magically snap back into place. People aren't just going to go right back out to venues.
Then we've ruined the economy and everyone dies anyway.
What about the government interventions? When will they end? So far as I can tell the government has not done anything more than what we already knew they could do. If they cause the problem by shutting down the economy, they become the solution to fix the problem. What if they can't?
They can't control the spread of the virus once we are set loose, and the only thing they can control they're not doing. What is plan to mitigate loss of life? I think the chart that media is pushing is BS, because it ends conveniently when? What about the secondary spike?

 

[millerbleach]

Has anyone heard the government speak about this? Ships with 1,000 beds are not going to cover it.
What happens when they turn us all loose and 500,000 old people die and others are sent home to die on the couch? If we don't have enough ICU beds, ventilators why does any of this matter? It's not like economy is going to just magically snap back into place. People aren't just going to go right back out to venues.
Then we've ruined the economy and everyone dies anyway.
What about the government interventions? When will they end? So far as I can tell the government has not done anything more than what we already knew they could do. If they cause the problem by shutting down the economy, they become the solution to fix the problem. What if they can't?
They can't control the spread of the virus once we are set loose, and the only thing they can control they're not doing. What is plan to mitigate loss of life? I think the chart that media is pushing is BS, because it ends conveniently when? What about the secondary spike?

Please pardon me, is this sarcasm?
500,000 old people die?

 

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

Please pardon me, is this sarcasm?
500,000 old people die?

That is a long life..

Using ships where available is a pretty good idea. Also a good idea would be separate field hospitals to keep Corona patients separate from other patients.

The whole social distancing thing is to keep from dealing with a massive run of infected patients.

 

[Draftpik]

Please pardon me, is this sarcasm?
500,000 old people die?

There are several published models out there that report the best case and worst case scenarios. One of the worst case scenario models predicted a loss of 1.2 million.

 

[millerbleach]

There are several published models out there that report the best case and worst case scenarios. One of the worst case scenario models predicted a loss of 1.2 million.

I could predict worse but that doesn't make it valid.
I can't hardly see us getting to swine flu numbers.
If the thing mutates into something else, anything is possible but it could just as easily lose its potency over time.
I think Trump was correct to downplay this thing and then saw the libs screaming at the top of their lungs how he wasn't taking it seriously (regardless of what was going on behind the scenes). He then switched into savior mode to be the hero when this blows over with MAYBE 10,000 deaths.

 

[kaskaskiakid]

Big surprise there.

 

[Draftpik]

Please pardon me, is this sarcasm?
500,000 old people die?

Your thread that you started about government intervention. It's something that should be discussed. If a million people lose their jobs because of government interventions and lockdown what happens then. Permanent social programs?

I could predict worse but that doesn't make it valid.
I can't hardly see us getting to swine flu numbers.
If the thing mutates into something else, anything is possible but it could just as easily lose its potency over time.
I think Trump was correct to downplay this thing and then saw the libs screaming at the top of their lungs how he wasn't taking it seriously (regardless of what was going on behind the scenes). He then switched into savior mode to be the hero when this blows over with MAYBE 10,000 deaths.

I hope you are right. But, as far as I can tell, we are not prepared for the worst. Testing is good, it provides clarity. Shutting down fights from China and locking down was good. It bought us some time. But I'm not hearing a plan. What if once we are turned loose we don't have the herd immunity and this thing gets bad? We will have destroyed the world economy for nothing.

 

[3Rfan]

Has anyone heard the government speak about this? Ships with 1,000 beds are not going to cover it.
What happens when they turn us all loose and 500,000 old people die and others are sent home to die on the couch? If we don't have enough ICU beds, ventilators why does any of this matter? It's not like economy is going to just magically snap back into place. People aren't just going to go right back out to venues.
Then we've ruined the economy and everyone dies anyway.
What about the government interventions? When will they end? So far as I can tell the government has not done anything more than what we already knew they could do. If they cause the problem by shutting down the economy, they become the solution to fix the problem. What if they can't?
They can't control the spread of the virus once we are set loose, and the only thing they can control they're not doing. What is plan to mitigate loss of life? I think the chart that media is pushing is BS, because it ends conveniently when? What about the secondary spike?

From what I've heard the hospital ships will be used to create more space in the regular hospitals so they keep more room of the corona patients there and not worry about mingling them all together. The hospital ships can handle a lot of pretty serious stuff and take that load off the other hospitals. I heard them say they have all the best equipment and over 100 operating rooms. The number of beds I heard was 7000, not 1000. Don't know what the correct number is.

 

[Texascap]

There are several published models out there that report the best case and worst case scenarios. One of the worst case scenario models predicted a loss of 1.2 million.

What if our modeling experts from medical sciences are no more accurate than intelligence agencies demanding we go to war in 2004 or Wall Street banks saying everything was just gravy before the crash? Should we trust the same professional class that birthed those twin disasters?

 

[Veer2Eternity]

What if our modeling experts from medical sciences are no more accurate than intelligence agencies demanding we go to war in 2004 or Wall Street banks saying everything was just gravy before the crash? Should we trust the same professional class that birthed those twin disasters?

Trust them or trump

Id trust water in mexico before i trusted trumpy

 

[Neutron Monster]

What if our modeling experts from medical sciences are no more accurate than intelligence agencies demanding we go to war in 2004 or Wall Street banks saying everything was just gravy before the crash? Should we trust the same professional class that birthed those twin disasters?

Given a choice between trusting experts and people who are making it up, take the experts every time. They won't always be right, and you should listen to where they present uncertainty, but X was wrong so we can always ignore experts is just a terrible fallacy. It's how you end up with people believing things that will get them and others killed in a time like this.

 

[Draftpik]

Given a choice between trusting experts and people who are making it up, take the experts every time. They won't always be right, and you should listen to where they present uncertainty, but X was wrong so we can always ignore experts is just a terrible fallacy. It's how you end up with people believing things that will get them and others killed in a time like this.

Ok, let's trust them. Keep the retired and higher at risk folks at home. Fortify nursing facilities. Let the young and less vulnerable go back to work ASAP.
What happens when you obliterate the economy, plunge millions into poverty all at the same time? Mass looting or the idea of at least we slowed down the spread of the virus?
They looted for days in Baltimore, what if we give people a reason?
How many products/supply chains is China siezing as we slow down?
Our economy is built on confidence and credit, which equals capital availability and consumer spending. We depend on overnight debt markets for functional cash for most businesses and governments. Those can sieze up quickly in a collapsing economy and in a depression that will take years to recover.

 

[Neutron Monster]

Our normal economy is built on the idea that you can leave your house without dying. We’ve moved to a different paradigm now. We are on a war footing and we should government spend like it is 1944 and have the fed provide a ton of liquidity to keep capital markets humming, which is the position of basically every decent economics expert now.

to be fair to experts this is a new, uncertain time. They won’t be perfect. They will be more right than you or me, though.

 

[Draftpik]

Our normal economy is built on the idea that you can leave your house without dying. We’ve moved to a different paradigm now. We are on a war footing and we should government spend like it is 1944 and have the fed provide a ton of liquidity to keep capital markets humming, which is the position of basically every decent economics expert now.

to be fair to experts this is a new, uncertain time. They won’t be perfect. They will be more right than you or me, though.

So you think the high death totals in Italy will be the same here?

 

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

So you think the high death totals in Italy will be the same here?

I think they will be relatively close though Italy has a fraction of the population that the US does. Spain is also bring clobbered by this right now just not quite at the rate of Italy.

 

[Neutron Monster]

So you think the high death totals in Italy will be the same here?

No. We're a younger place than Europe, so I'd start by age adjusting for that. But I think we could see some rough local numbers in places like NYC, Chicago, NO, SF, etc. where the health system gets overwhelmed with cases.

I am very worried about the places I mentioned above, as well as Atlanta and South Florida.

 

[Neutron Monster]

I think they will be relatively close though Italy has a fraction of the population that the US does. Spain is also bring clobbered by this right now just not quite at the rate of Italy.

Median age in Italy: 47
Median age in Spain: 45
Median age in the US: 38

 

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

Median age in Italy: 47
Median age in Spain: 45
Median age in the US: 38

That is definitely a significant factor as well,maybe the largest. There are a lot to consider. How early did the countries initiate travel bans, quarantines, how much urbanization vs rural, rationing of healthcare, quality/hygiene of medical facilities, how strictly enforced are quarantine procedures. I saw a photo of crowded beaches in LA from just this last weekend. Without becoming a police state it is tough to prevent stuff like that.

 

[Neutron Monster]

That is definitely a significant factor as well,maybe the largest. There are a lot to consider. How early did the countries initiate travel bans, quarantines, how much urbanization vs rural, rationing of healthcare, quality/hygiene of medical facilities, how strictly enforced are quarantine procedures. I saw a photo of crowded beaches in LA from just this last weekend. Without becoming a police state it is tough to prevent stuff like that.

Travel ban is not terribly interesting if you didn't use the time to build out testing and treatment capability. We bought time then gave it away. It's really more about when did you cut off internal interactions (your quarantine comment) + testing capability.

Even within the US, you'll have pretty material variances on quarantine timing. It's pretty clear we were too late in New York and New Orleans, and they are on a really bad trajectory similar to what we've seen in some other countries. It's not clear that this is the case in a place like St. Louis, where there's less international travel and the quarantine likely hit earlier in the infection chain.

Credit to the people of the US, who seem to have taken the quarantine pretty seriously.

 

[Draftpik]

Travel ban is not terribly interesting if you didn't use the time to build out testing and treatment capability. We bought time then gave it away. It's really more about when did you cut off internal interactions (your quarantine comment) + testing capability.

Even within the US, you'll have pretty material variances on quarantine timing. It's pretty clear we were too late in New York and New Orleans, and they are on a really bad trajectory similar to what we've seen in some other countries. It's not clear that this is the case in a place like St. Louis, where there's less international travel and the quarantine likely hit earlier in the infection chain.

Credit to the people of the US, who seem to have taken the quarantine pretty seriously.

Again. We know this. It was not great science to shut down all the schools either.

 

[Veer2Eternity]

Again. We know this. It was not great science to shut down all the schools either.

Apparently you didn't pass algebra 1

 

[SadButTrue]

Apparently you didn't pass algebra 1

He is passing a lot of gas today though.

 

[Draftpik]

Apparently you didn't pass algebra 1

Someone with CV19 sneezes and your 6 feet away, walk me through the probability that you will be infected?
80% 60% 20%? If it's 80% then what the hell. Keep me locked up for 9mos? Really?

 

[Veer2Eternity]

Someone with CV19 sneezes and your 6 feet away, walk me through the probability that you will be infected?
80% 60% 20%? If it's 80% then what the hell. Keep me locked up for 9mos? Really?

Why did you change usernames

 

[Draftpik]

Why did you change usernames

Why are you a troll?

 

[Veer2Eternity]

Why are you a troll?

Ah well enjoy the time you have left.
Have a great day

 

[Draftpik]

Ah well enjoy the time you have left.
Have a great day

Have a good day and stay away.

 

[MGHS]

Given a choice between trusting experts and people who are making it up, take the experts every time. They won't always be right, and you should listen to where they present uncertainty, but X was wrong so we can always ignore experts is just a terrible fallacy. It's how you end up with people believing things that will get them and others killed in a time like this.

You assume the experts don't have built in bias or prejudice....they all do and often to a high degree. Many experts in the gov. are Agency loyal first,then Party and thirdly they actually follow the data and science.

 

[bullitpdq68]

Travel ban is not terribly interesting if you didn't use the time to build out testing and treatment capability. We bought time then gave it away. It's really more about when did you cut off internal interactions (your quarantine comment) + testing capability.

Even within the US, you'll have pretty material variances on quarantine timing. It's pretty clear we were too late in New York and New Orleans, and they are on a really bad trajectory similar to what we've seen in some other countries. It's not clear that this is the case in a place like St. Louis, where there's less international travel and the quarantine likely hit earlier in the infection chain.

Credit to the people of the US, who seem to have taken the quarantine pretty seriously.

What is interesting most of what we saw from the incoming virus is American citizens that we let in the country after we knew it was spreading. The case in Springfield is a student who came back from Italy. Travel ban should have been everybody, those who left in January knew the risk, it was pretty much all over the news.

 

[Neutron Monster]

You assume the experts don't have built in bias or prejudice....they all do and often to a high degree. Many experts in the gov. are Agency loyal first,then Party and thirdly they actually follow the data and science.

This is total nonsense, man. The average person who works for the government as an economist, scientist, doctor, etc. is doing their job in a nonpartisan way. The unemployment numbers aren't biased. The CBO budget numbers are fair. The CDC doctors are doing the best they can.

 

[Neutron Monster]

What is interesting most of what we saw from the incoming virus is American citizens that we let in the country after we knew it was spreading. The case in Springfield is a student who came back from Italy. Travel ban should have been everybody, those who left in January knew the risk, it was pretty much all over the news.

I don't see how you blame private citizens when our own government was telling them it was safe enough to travel in January. If we really believed that, then the State Department should have issued a much more severe travel warning before they left, or it should have issued one in February that demanded people come home much faster.

It's one thing to say, sorry, you went to China in January 2020, you have to go to quarantine or stay. And would have been another thing to force a harder quarantine on people who came home after Feb. 15 or something like that. But I don't think you can tell people to stay who left in good faith at a time when the government said it was ok to leave.

 

[bullitpdq68]

I don't see how you blame private citizens when our own government was telling them it was safe enough to travel in January. If we really believed that, then the State Department should have issued a much more severe travel warning before they left, or it should have issued one in February that demanded people come home much faster.

It's one thing to say, sorry, you went to China in January 2020, you have to go to quarantine or stay. And would have been another thing to force a harder quarantine on people who came home after Feb. 15 or something like that. But I don't think you can tell people to stay who left in good faith at a time when the government said it was ok to leave.

um okay we were being told something different?