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I am sure I will incur the wrath of bksfg4, but...

Expect2Win

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May 29, 2001
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I am just not sure what economic indicators all the sky is falling people are looking at. This seems like good news to me.


Please someone reply to my post or bksfg4 will be posting about how I have lost it!
 
I am just not sure what economic indicators all the sky is falling people are looking at. This seems like good news to me.


Please someone reply to my post or bksfg4 will be posting about how I have lost it!
I've been thinking the same thing about all this sky is falling on us stuff. The stock market folks sure don't seem to think so. Not to mention gas is cheaper around here than it's been in a long time.
 
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Not sure how we can compete with the “stable genius”. From this weekend:

At the Cedar Rapids event that followed, Trump homed in on attacking “crooked” President Biden while continuing to harp on his unsubstantiated claim that the 2020 election was rigged and, even further, that Jesus and God would declare him a winner now.

“I think if you had a real election and Jesus came down and God came down and said, ‘I’m gonna be the scorekeeper here,’ I think we’d win [in California], I think we’d win in Illinois, and I think we’d win in New York.”
 
I watch these guys a lot, especially Favreau. It is interesting to hear them talk about messaging in the White House. There were a lot of great things said in this. I think you have 30 minutes. I think the first 30 are best.
 
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Yet all the Rep talking heads on weekend roundtable news shows were preaching about how bad the economy is in the US, and it's simply not true. But they know if they sell the lie hard enough that their base will buy it.

Wasn't T'giving weekend the largest travel period and Black Monday the largest online sales day in history? People are spending money!
 
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I’d say the “facts” within the statements are probably true. What’s missing from the above statement is how much inflation has gone down. Annual inflation being the lowest level in 2 years doesn’t mean much when inflation was at:
8.00% in 2022
4.70 % in 2021
1.23 % in 2020
1.81% in 2019
2.44% in 2018.

That means it rose 8.00 over the 4.70 it had already added from the year before. To say it’s now at the lowest level in 2 years isn’t much of an accomplish. It typically took a decade to get the same inflation.

Less important than the numbers they didn’t provide is how it actually feels going to the store. If you were buying the same groceries that cost $200 a week in 2020 it now cost roughly $240 dollars a week. And just because it’s less inflation that doesn’t mean prices are going down they just aren’t increasing as fast as they would. We still have inflation that higher than we’ve seen since the late 80s according to the data provided by the world bank and US Gov. I agree it is better than the worst we’ve seen in a long time but to tout it as economic success is ignoring the actual increase in the cost of goods compared to increase in income. It typically takes a decade or more for that much inflation throughout American history. The only outlier is from 70 to about 82 when inflation was also out of control. 2022 was the highest year of inflation since it was 10.33 percent in 1981. This is from macro trends.net and they used the laspeyres formula. I am open to be corrected and my mind changed with actual number and not just some more gaslighting by the Biden admin. You can’t tell me things are not more expensive and my actual experience at the store isn’t real by acting like inflation is being reduced without saying by how much. It also means prices are still going up and at a higher clip than we’ve been used to for 40 years.

As for the unemployment rate, what’s it matter if the unemployment rate is low when the pay for the jobs being worked won’t pay the bills and allow for some amount of money to be put in savings? Sure we’ve got jobs, but most are still unable to put money back or are dipping. Any search of comparable savings shows the averages American has less in saving that they did a couple years ago. We can spin the headlines but it’s not hard to see people are having more trouble paying bills and are going farther in debt or dipping in savings for typical purchases.
 
I’d say the “facts” within the statements are probably true. What’s missing from the above statement is how much inflation has gone down. Annual inflation being the lowest level in 2 years doesn’t mean much when inflation was at:
8.00% in 2022
4.70 % in 2021
1.23 % in 2020
1.81% in 2019
2.44% in 2018.

That means it rose 8.00 over the 4.70 it had already added from the year before. To say it’s now at the lowest level in 2 years isn’t much of an accomplish. It typically took a decade to get the same inflation.

Less important than the numbers they didn’t provide is how it actually feels going to the store. If you were buying the same groceries that cost $200 a week in 2020 it now cost roughly $240 dollars a week. And just because it’s less inflation that doesn’t mean prices are going down they just aren’t increasing as fast as they would. We still have inflation that higher than we’ve seen since the late 80s according to the data provided by the world bank and US Gov. I agree it is better than the worst we’ve seen in a long time but to tout it as economic success is ignoring the actual increase in the cost of goods compared to increase in income. It typically takes a decade or more for that much inflation throughout American history. The only outlier is from 70 to about 82 when inflation was also out of control. 2022 was the highest year of inflation since it was 10.33 percent in 1981. This is from macro trends.net and they used the laspeyres formula. I am open to be corrected and my mind changed with actual number and not just some more gaslighting by the Biden admin. You can’t tell me things are not more expensive and my actual experience at the store isn’t real by acting like inflation is being reduced without saying by how much. It also means prices are still going up and at a higher clip than we’ve been used to for 40 years.

As for the unemployment rate, what’s it matter if the unemployment rate is low when the pay for the jobs being worked won’t pay the bills and allow for some amount of money to be put in savings? Sure we’ve got jobs, but most are still unable to put money back or are dipping. Any search of comparable savings shows the averages American has less in saving that they did a couple years ago. We can spin the headlines but it’s not hard to see people are having more trouble paying bills and are going farther in debt or dipping in savings for typical purchases.
While I agree with all that, we also have to consider other factors.

Let's not pretend the economy was booming when Trump left office. The pandemic caused worldwide recession. We are only 2 years from the height of the pandemic in the winter of 2021-22. Inflation occurred worldwide. The world and US economy cannot fully recover in 2 years, supported by your referencing the inflation rates from 1970 to 1982. And let's not forget Trump's failed trade war with China.

Wages are up in the US. People are employed and spending money. Gas prices have dropped. Infrastructure is being repaired. The gloom and doom being preached by the right is a fallacy. People in my life are doing fine.

Thank Biden for returning our country to some sense of normalcy instead of the almost daily turmoil that occurred and created by Trump.
 
There is so much brainwashing going on online. And it’s impossible to stop. Expect’s video didn’t talk that much about the online poisoning of the well. It’s all about the internet.

 
While I agree with all that, we also have to consider other factors.

Let's not pretend the economy was booming when Trump left office. The pandemic caused worldwide recession. We are only 2 years from the height of the pandemic in the winter of 2021-22. Inflation occurred worldwide. The world and US economy cannot fully recover in 2 years, supported by your referencing the inflation rates from 1970 to 1982. And let's not forget Trump's failed trade war with China.

Wages are up in the US. People are employed and spending money. Gas prices have dropped. Infrastructure is being repaired. The gloom and doom being preached by the right is a fallacy. People in my life are doing fine.

Thank Biden for returning our country to some sense of normalcy instead of the almost daily turmoil that occurred and created by Trump.
One of the interesting things in the video I shared is the psychology of inflation/wages.
If a person's wage goes up, they see that as them working harder and earning, not a part of the larger macro of all wages going up to meet the inflation. Inflation is because of the macroeconomy and is influenced by the administration, but not wages.
 
When did the current worldwide inflation trend start? At the start of covid!! I can't believe people cannot see the correlation.

It's only been 2 years since the height of the pandemic. It takes time but the economy is getting better.
 
It should, but someone is promising to fix it now. Some people just want it fixed and believe the businessman can do it.
 
When did the current worldwide inflation trend start? At the start of covid!! I can't believe people cannot see the correlation.

It's only been 2 years since the height of the pandemic. It takes time but the economy is getting better.
I would argue the inflation hit not at the start of the pandemic but initially inflation began with the first 4 trillion hand out by Trump then it got worse with the inflation reduction act. Both parties are to blame for the mess we are in and raising interest rates not the handing out of money is what seems to have cooled it off. Trump has no solution and it wasn’t Bidenomics that has reduced the inflation. Any time trillions are handed out inflation will rise. It’s slowing because we hit everyone with high interest rates and all the free money that was handed out has been spent or funneled other places.
 
I would argue the inflation hit not at the start of the pandemic but initially inflation began with the first 4 trillion hand out by Trump then it got worse with the inflation reduction act. Both parties are to blame for the mess we are in and raising interest rates not the handing out of money is what seems to have cooled it off. Trump has no solution and it wasn’t Bidenomics that has reduced the inflation. Any time trillions are handed out inflation will rise. It’s slowing because we hit everyone with high interest rates and all the free money that was handed out has been spent or funneled other places.
The interest rate hikes haven't affected my household whatsoever but they do have some very nice rates on CD's in my area and gas is lower than it's been in a LONG time. One bank around here has a 10 month CD with a 5.2 rate. Has nothing to do with the Fed rate hikes but that's a pretty good rate.
 
Inflation started towards the end of covid for a couple of reasons. The supply chain was a biggest part, the free money that both trump and Biden gave out.( Other countries did the same thing, which was why it was world wide). The tariff's also didn't help. The thing with Biden, was they denied it was happening, and waited to long to start raising interest rates.

The one thing that I have issues with, is a lot of people around here( all trump people), are complaining about how bad the economy is, but then going out and buying $25,000 side by sides.( My brother in law sells them, and business is the best it's ever been).
 
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Inflation started towards the end of covid for a couple of reasons. The supply chain was a biggest part, the free money that both trump and Biden gave out.( Other countries did the same thing, which was why it was world wide). The tariff's also didn't help. The thing with Biden, was they denied it was happening, and waited to long to start raising interest rates.

The one thing that I have issues with, is a lot of people around here( all trump people), are complaining about how bad the economy is, but then going out and buying $25,000 side by sides.( My brother in law sells them, and business is the best it's ever been).
It's Jim Jones all over again.
 
I would argue the inflation hit not at the start of the pandemic but initially inflation began with the first 4 trillion hand out by Trump then it got worse with the inflation reduction act. Both parties are to blame for the mess we are in and raising interest rates not the handing out of money is what seems to have cooled it off. Trump has no solution and it wasn’t Bidenomics that has reduced the inflation. Any time trillions are handed out inflation will rise. It’s slowing because we hit everyone with high interest rates and all the free money that was handed out has been spent or funneled other places.
You should know better than to come on here and act like BOTH parties are to blame for something... if you follow, you know nothing is both parties fault. It's US vs THEM in everything....
 
You should know better than to come on here and act like BOTH parties are to blame for something... if you follow, you know nothing is both parties fault. It's US vs THEM in everything....
that's not true. I suspect most of us not on the lunatic fringe attribute inflation to both 'teams'.
 
Chris Christie correctly said last night that inflation actually started with Trump's failed trade war with China.
Trumps 6 trillion dollar giveaway in DECEMBER after he lost to sleepy joe was a toughie.

The question is:
Did his economists tell him that it would cause rampant inflation ? The answer is obviously yes. That leads to the question: Why did he do it?

Yes Biden also gave free money away soon after and that didn't help.

Fuel prices are a major driver of inflation and that's a complete mess.
 
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Chris Christie correctly said last night that inflation actually started with Trump's failed trade war with China.
The number would say the tariffs on china didn’t start the real inflation and the rate of inflation year over year was actually falling from 2018 to 2019 and 2019 into 2020 after the tariffs and then when the pandemic and lockdowns began. Here are the official US inflation numbers again supplied by the world bank. They give inflation for all countries who report it to them (US as well) so those numbers are apparently straight from our government from the world bank website (if we can trust these numbers but what else do we have)


8.00% in 2022
4.70 % in 2021
1.23 % in 2020
1.81% in 2019
2.44% in 2018.

Chris Christie will take any shot he can at Trump factually or not. Tarries began in January of 2018 and continued to increase into 2019 and the amount of inflation actually decreased. So unless these numbers are fake you can’t say those tariffs started inflation because it went down. Then it went down again during the first year of the pandemic. Then as soon as the handouts began inflation jumped rapidly. If you can provide different numbers than what I got from the world bank please provide and I will change my mind. If not that’s a poor argument without facts and just hoping to slam trump(which he deserves for a lot of reasons but that isn’t one of them) and you should fact check Chris Christie. He is from Jersey and it is not known to be the most honest place to be a politician on either side of the row)
 
The number would say the tariffs on china didn’t start the real inflation and the rate of inflation year over year was actually falling from 2018 to 2019 and 2019 into 2020 after the tariffs and then when the pandemic and lockdowns began. Here are the official US inflation numbers again supplied by the world bank. They give inflation for all countries who report it to them (US as well) so those numbers are apparently straight from our government from the world bank website (if we can trust these numbers but what else do we have)


8.00% in 2022
4.70 % in 2021
1.23 % in 2020
1.81% in 2019
2.44% in 2018.

Chris Christie will take any shot he can at Trump factually or not. Tarries began in January of 2018 and continued to increase into 2019 and the amount of inflation actually decreased. So unless these numbers are fake you can’t say those tariffs started inflation because it went down. Then it went down again during the first year of the pandemic. Then as soon as the handouts began inflation jumped rapidly. If you can provide different numbers than what I got from the world bank please provide and I will change my mind. If not that’s a poor argument without facts and just hoping to slam trump(which he deserves for a lot of reasons but that isn’t one of them) and you should fact check Chris Christie. He is from Jersey and it is not known to be the most honest place to be a politician on either side of the row)
Trump is responsible.

The one common denominator is all his minions buy his bulsht line about always being the victim.

Wake up.
 
Inflation doesn’t occur over night. It lags behind changes in government policy or world events often from years earlier. Thinking that tariffs on goods or tax cuts during a strong economy don’t raise the prices in many cases is a fairy tale.

Government handouts didn’t immediately cause issues either. But they, along with supply chain issues and pandemic issues reared their ugly heads in 2021-22 for sho.
 
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Trump is responsible.

The one common denominator is all his minions buy his bulsht line about always being the victim.

Wake up.

You are arguing with no data but instead change what’s being discussed to people buying his bs. That’s the first sign of cognitive dissonance and it’s caused by TDS.
 
You are arguing with no data but instead change what’s being discussed to people buying his bs. That’s the first sign of cognitive dissonance and it’s caused by TDS.
Educate yourself. 6 trillion dollars of gimmedats in December after he got smoked by sleepy joe is what triggered the massive inflation.

6 trillion dollars increased the amount of us currency by 50%. Only a complete and utter idiot and/or biased hack doesn't see that.
 
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Inflation doesn’t occur over night. It lags behind changes in government policy or world events often from years earlier. Thinking that tariffs on goods or tax cuts during a strong economy don’t raise the prices in many cases is a fairy tale.

Government handouts didn’t immediately cause issues either. But they, along with supply chain issues and pandemic issues reared their ugly heads in 2021-22 for sho.
How long does it take for inflation to occur? 1 year from the action taking place? Two years? 10? Tariffs went in Jan 2018 and inflation went down for 2019 and 2020. First round of stimulus goes into effect 2020 and 2021 inflation goes way up. Seems pretty cut and dry to me and goes with most of history. When there is a big money package sent out to the people about a year later when the money begins satuatung the market inflation begins to rise. Trump at fault for signing first round and Biden did his part to keep it going by giving more handouts. Both parties out is in this path and to argue Trump tariffs started it does not agree with the numbers. Please provide some evidence contrary other than people who like Trump suck. I am not one of them and depending on what your talking about agree but I still use date and some actual information to decide if something is real or just a talking point.
 
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Educate yourself. 6 trillion dollars of gimmedats in December after he got smoked by sleepy joe is what triggered the massive inflation.

6 trillion dollars increased the amount of us currency by 50%. Only a complete and utter idiot and/or biased hack doesn't see that.
I already said that. People were saying in this thread it was china tariffs and that’s what I was aroguing against. Keep up please. You are actually agreeing with a previous statement I already made.
 
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I already said that. People were saying in this thread it was china tariffs and that’s what I was aroguing against. Keep up please. You are actually agreeing with a previous statement I already made.
Are you smoking something today? Your spelling went to hell in a hand basket. :rolleyes:
 
Tariffs cause inflation. They always have.

Cutting taxes during a time of great economic prosperity causes inflation.

Giving handouts to everyone in the country knowing that most will spend the money will cause inflation.

when supply chain issues reduce the availability of goods it causes inflation.

We all know all those things. There is no need to use terms like cognitive dissonance or insult anyone unless you are just feeling insecure or guilty about something.
 
Makes a good headline, but the truth is that under Trump the stock market went from 19,732 to 30,930 for an average increase of 14% per year,,,,,,Biden took office it was 30,930 and is now 37,090 for an average annual gain of less than 7%.

Bidens stock market gain didn't hardly cover inflation
inflation coming down. Perhaps you shoulda worn some sunglasses so you could see.

GOP probably planning a disruption of oil supply or somesuch as we sit here.

Can't have any good news!
 
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Moderate steady growth is more healthy than drastic roller coaster rides. Our economy is having a soft landing and has not reached the gloomy depths the Trumpians have been declaring and dreaming about. Which is why they have to continually focus on Hunter, book bans, trannys and the imaginary border crisis.
 
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