I don't think he will lose New Hampshire. He seems like the candidate that NH voters love. I think he'll do surprisingly well in Iowa too (wouldn't be surprised if he wins). If he can get to March 1st in decent position the nomination is his IMO. He will have all the money.
Huckabee...
- Thread starter Neutron Monster
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I think it's going to be difficult for any R to win NH and IA. A number of decent candidates are likely to play only in one of the two states.
Given Iowa's votes for Santorum and Huck in the last two elections it's really hard for me to see Bush winning there. They want an evangelical, not a Roman Catholic. Also Rand will hold a decent percentage of the non evangelicals like his dad had. The numbers make it very difficult.
I think Bush is playing more for NH.
Given Iowa's votes for Santorum and Huck in the last two elections it's really hard for me to see Bush winning there. They want an evangelical, not a Roman Catholic. Also Rand will hold a decent percentage of the non evangelicals like his dad had. The numbers make it very difficult.
I think Bush is playing more for NH.
Huckabee, Santorum, Carson, and Cruz all have the same base. Santorum and Huckabee are yesterdays news.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-...rsity-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2158
Also note that Huckabee is third in absolute no votes while Carson barely registers a negative vote.
The idea that Huckabee and Carson have the same base is misguided. they don't. Just because they both talk about Jesus doesn't magically give them the same base. Same with Cruz.
Cruz and Huck are notably far apart. Dunno why you would consider lumping them together. Cruz is the pissed off tea party candidate. Huck is aiming for the bottom 50 percent of the R party, income wise. He is trying to be the voice for guys making 15 an hour in a plant in a right to work state who go to church every week.
Also that poll isn't that meaningful on its own in a caucus with about ten candidates. What matters is how many pick you as their first choice. The winner in Iowa is going to win something like 25 percent of the voters. You don't have to do anything more than get a core constituency out. It's how Huck, Santorum, and Paul have done so well there - their base is solid.
Huckabee and Santorum have no shot at the nomination but one of them certainly has a shot in Iowa. This is a reflection of Iowa not being a very good proxy for the Republican Party right now.
Cruz and Huck are notably far apart. Dunno why you would consider lumping them together. Cruz is the pissed off tea party candidate. Huck is aiming for the bottom 50 percent of the R party, income wise. He is trying to be the voice for guys making 15 an hour in a plant in a right to work state who go to church every week.
Also that poll isn't that meaningful on its own in a caucus with about ten candidates. What matters is how many pick you as their first choice. The winner in Iowa is going to win something like 25 percent of the voters. You don't have to do anything more than get a core constituency out. It's how Huck, Santorum, and Paul have done so well there - their base is solid.
Huckabee and Santorum have no shot at the nomination but one of them certainly has a shot in Iowa. This is a reflection of Iowa not being a very good proxy for the Republican Party right now.
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