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How deadly is Covid-19?

Ok and ? You have no idea the reliability of the information. I'm not saying it isn't reliable, but let's not act like you have firsthand information. You're guessing just like everyone else.
Johns Hopkins, the CDC, and that website all have pretty consistent data. See https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 It's as good as it gets.

The CDC and other authorities are layering models onto that which are designed to estimate the effect of undertesting and also add a projection of spread. Those generally aren't public.
 
Technically what they had said is that it could affect spread and it could be seasonal, but that we don’t have definitive evidence that it will work out this way. This includes the doctor.
NO! What I saw/heard Dr. Fauci say is that in the southern hemisphere it was starting to show up and they were going into their cold weather season. There was no 'it might affect the spread' in the comments I watched him make on live TV.
 
NO! What I saw/heard Dr. Fauci say is that in the southern hemisphere it was starting to show up and they were going into their cold weather season. There was no 'it might affect the spread' in the comments I watched him make on live TV.
My wife told me something she read, she thinks it was on facebook so who know the reliability of it but here goes. We all know we have no idea how many cases or death they have had in China because they most likely lied about it a LOT. This thing was said to be some outfit that tracks cell phone usage and it says there has been 21 million cell phones in China that have NOT been used in over a month. Take it for what it's worth but that would some serious coverup from China if that many people are sick, or have died.
 
NO! What I saw/heard Dr. Fauci say is that in the southern hemisphere it was starting to show up and they were going into their cold weather season. There was no 'it might affect the spread' in the comments I watched him make on live TV.
Are you telling me that you believe what your eyes see, and your ears hear? That's just not right.
 
"it's just a bad cold", "it's going to be over in a couple months", "we have it contained".......OOPS.....Dr. Donald must have received his doctorate from Trump University!!
 
"it's just a bad cold", "it's going to be over in a couple months", "we have it contained".......OOPS.....Dr. Donald must have received his doctorate from Trump University!!

People should still be going out to eat at restaurants, Mayor Bill de Blasio said in a press conference about the new coronavirus on Wednesday — emphasizing that the virus “does not transmit through food and drink.”

4 days later

Mayor Bill de Blasio said Sunday he would limit New York City restaurants, bars and cafes to providing takeout and delivery and close nightclubs and movie theaters to contain the spread of the new coronavirus.
 
My wife told me something she read, she thinks it was on facebook so who know the reliability of it but here goes. We all know we have no idea how many cases or death they have had in China because they most likely lied about it a LOT. This thing was said to be some outfit that tracks cell phone usage and it says there has been 21 million cell phones in China that have NOT been used in over a month. Take it for what it's worth but that would some serious coverup from China if that many people are sick, or have died.
My wife told me something she read, she thinks it was on facebook so who know the reliability of it but here goes. We all know we have no idea how many cases or death they have had in China because they most likely lied about it a LOT. This thing was said to be some outfit that tracks cell phone usage and it says there has been 21 million cell phones in China that have NOT been used in over a month. Take it for what it's worth but that would some serious coverup from China if that many people are sick, or have died.

I don’t know about 21 million but China was the epicenter and they are clearly lying. I would bet China has more cases and deaths than the rest of the world combined.
 
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BTW the death rate compared to cases is now up close to 2%. I don’t think that is the actual death rate but it is trending up because it Louisiana for example the rate has been very high.

Plus the new cases were up 19% yesterday and deaths way up so it is clear we haven’t flattened yet. The positive is it looks like it has flattened in Italy.
 
People should still be going out to eat at restaurants, Mayor Bill de Blasio said in a press conference about the new coronavirus on Wednesday — emphasizing that the virus “does not transmit through food and drink.”

4 days later

Mayor Bill de Blasio said Sunday he would limit New York City restaurants, bars and cafes to providing takeout and delivery and close nightclubs and movie theaters to contain the spread of the new coronavirus.

LOL Bill de Blasio isn't the president!!!!!!
 
LOL Bill de Blasio isn't the president!!!!!!
No but more than Trump and Cuomo he is responsible for the spread of the virus in NYC where we would all agree is the worst. The Federal government issues recommendations. The Governors and City governments decide what businesses stay open or are closed. Not a monarchy or dictatorship.
 
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New York governor Andrew Cuomo on Thursday slammed New York City mayor Bill de Blasio’s suggestion that the city may implement a “shelter in place” order mandating residents remain at home except for essential visits to grocery stores and other necessary trips, in the wake of the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic.

“Look at your words, ‘shelter in place,’ you know where that came from? That came from nuclear war,” Cuomo told reporters at a press conference. “What it said is people should go into an interior room of their home with no windows, stay there until they get the all clear sign. Now, that’s not what people really mean, but that’s what it sounds like.”
 
I don’t know about 21 million but China was the epicenter and they are clearly lying. I would bet China has more cases and deaths than the rest of the world combined.
I think they fudge # but I'm not sure I'd go that far. It's one thing to say you have 3,000 deaths when you have 7,000. It's another to say 3,000 when it is really 50,000. There's not any great evidence that they had major outbreaks outside of Wuhan, in particular in places like Beijing and Shanghai where the expat communities are large.

Some of what China hid was how ruthless they were in locking people down to manage spread.
 
It's "Let's Blame the Democrats" time. Yet, NO ACCOUNTABILITY for trumpy being "optimistic" early on.
 
I think they fudge # but I'm not sure I'd go that far. It's one thing to say you have 3,000 deaths when you have 7,000. It's another to say 3,000 when it is really 50,000. There's not any great evidence that they had major outbreaks outside of Wuhan, in particular in places like Beijing and Shanghai where the expat communities are large.

Some of what China hid was how ruthless they were in locking people down to manage spread.
Credit to our intel agencies - they appear to have evidence that the numbers are fake based upon their review. I didn't see anything in the bloomberg article that cited numbers - it would be interesting to see how big they thought it was.
 
It's "Let's Blame the Democrats" time. Yet, NO ACCOUNTABILITY for trumpy being "optimistic" early on.
Fauci, who wasn't "just touting the Trump line (served under Clinton, both Bushes, Obama, and now Trump), said it wasn't anything to be worried about or fear AFTER it was in the U S! Five days later Trump implemented the travel ban from China. Uncle Joe called it xenophobic! Nancy was saying to come out to Chinatown! Whos actions showed the most concerned from that group????
 
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"it's just a bad cold", "it's going to be over in a couple months", "we have it contained".......OOPS.....Dr. Donald must have received his doctorate from Trump University!!
The partisan recriminations are getting old. Had you paid attention, you'd realize the Democrats were downplaying the virus at the same time Trump was.
Nobody knew anything sufficient to take the drastic step of shutting down the economy in late January. Vox was still running stories that this would be no worse than the seasonal flu in late January.
3 administrations in a row ignored the CDC requests to stock pile ventilators and ICU beds.
 
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Credit to our intel agencies - they appear to have evidence that the numbers are fake based upon their review. I didn't see anything in the bloomberg article that cited numbers - it would be interesting to see how big they thought it was.
I know in the beginning China shut down their internet, and I assume cell phone service, too but that surely ended when things got better there but it might not have so their people couldn't get the truth of what happened out. That could have had a huge affect on the cellphone use from that area but I'd bet a lot of it was because dead people don't use their phones.
 
People should still be going out to eat at restaurants, Mayor Bill de Blasio said in a press conference about the new coronavirus on Wednesday — emphasizing that the virus “does not transmit through food and drink.”

4 days later

Mayor Bill de Blasio said Sunday he would limit New York City restaurants, bars and cafes to providing takeout and delivery and close nightclubs and movie theaters to contain the spread of the new coronavirus.
So it took the Mayor 4 days, how many days between there are 15 cases soon to be almost 0 and Mr. Trump even came close to admitting there was a problem?
 
So it took the Mayor 4 days, how many days between there are 15 cases soon to be almost 0 and Mr. Trump even came close to admitting there was a problem?
He said some silly, optimistic things but Trump started taking action in January. Comrade Deblasio was making decisions that directly lead to infections being spread in the most densely populated city in the US a month later. Even Cuomo thinks he is an idiot.
 
He said some silly, optimistic things but Trump started taking action in January. Comrade Deblasio was making decisions that directly lead to infections being spread in the most densely populated city in the US a month later. Even Cuomo thinks he is an idiot.
Trump had taken actions at the time of his "silly" comments that were being cited as xenophobic, racist, etc. by the left but they cling to the ONLY thing they can claim wasn't accurate. Even Dr Fauci wasn't concerned at that time.
 
He took action, but he didn't oversee the sort of sustained response that you needed to be building out on the testing and treatment side. That was the real failure. Testing, in particular, is a black mark on the administration, who left us well behind many Asian countries.
 
He said some silly, optimistic things but Trump started taking action in January. Comrade Deblasio was making decisions that directly lead to infections being spread in the most densely populated city in the US a month later. Even Cuomo thinks he is an idiot.
Not a big Deblosio fan in fact I can't stand him, but to act like trump hasn't bungled this thing from the beginning is silly.
 
He took action, but he didn't oversee the sort of sustained response that you needed to be building out on the testing and treatment side. That was the real failure. Testing, in particular, is a black mark on the administration, who left us well behind many Asian countries.
In America, the federal responds to the local. We also have massive bureaucracy slowing down progress. Once those built in limits were remedied, we've made huge strides quickly.
 
Not a big Deblosio fan in fact I can't stand him, but to act like trump hasn't bungled this thing from the beginning is silly.
So actually 40,000 are dead in China not 2,000. Singapore is locking down again. NYC is going through hell. When we miss we miss big. Ohh so did Italy, Spain France the UK and President Fauci. No biggie
 
Just read an article about the princess cruise ship where 3,000 passengers... all tested. 700 tested positive, and 330 or so have NEVER shown symptoms... That's pretty crazy.

Implications: lots more cases that we haven't tested. Lots of transmitters that will never know they are.

So: Mortality rates likely quite a bit lower than we think...and case count much higher.

Ideally, we would have a lot more testing going on.
 
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In America, the federal responds to the local. We also have massive bureaucracy slowing down progress. Once those built in limits were remedied, we've made huge strides quickly.
That’s a terrible assumption and terrible way to respond a pandemic. How do locals lead response to a national panic? Having dozens of governments haphazardly competing for supplies, testing capabilities, etc is silly. You need national coordination to share resources and best practices.

a situation like this is why you have a federal government. They have to lead. Locals manage local issues and the private market has to be able to experiment and respond to demand. But you cannot have locals overseeing the national response.
 
So actually 40,000 are dead in China not 2,000. Singapore is locking down again. NYC is going through hell. When we miss we miss big. Ohh so did Italy, Spain France the UK and President Fauci. No biggie
There’s not great evidence there are 40k dead in China. We should be careful with assumptions. Assuming they fudged numbers doesn’t mean there is great evidence that it was that bad
 
Just read an article about the princess cruise ship where 3,000 passengers... all tested. 700 tested positive, and 330 or so have NEVER shown symptoms... That's pretty crazy.

Implications: lots more cases that we haven't tested. Lots of transmitters that will never know they are.

So: Mortality rates likely quite a bit lower than we think...and case count much higher.

Ideally, we would have a lot more testing going on.
The cruise and SK cases suggest lower can b but not low like a normal flu. 0.5 percent seems too low an assumption, unfortunately.
 
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That’s a terrible assumption and terrible way to respond a pandemic. How do locals lead response to a national panic? Having dozens of governments haphazardly competing for supplies, testing capabilities, etc is silly. You need national coordination to share resources and best practices.

a situation like this is why you have a federal government. They have to lead. Locals manage local issues and the private market has to be able to experiment and respond to demand. But you cannot have locals overseeing the national response.
The Federal level is blunt instrument. Not that you don't need a massive broad policy or supplies. But to do the important practical application its up to the State and local. That's how federalism is supposed to work. This does not mean it's a canned response. It means figure it out.
 
Trump had taken actions at the time of his "silly" comments that were being cited as xenophobic, racist, etc. by the left but they cling to the ONLY thing they can claim wasn't accurate. Even Dr Fauci wasn't concerned at that time.
When did fauci say he wasnt concerned??
 
I did. Couldn't find the quote.

Guess it would be easy to prove.
I guess you aren't very good at that google thing?
Feb 17 https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...inuscule-skip-mask-and-wash-hands/4787209002/
"We want to reassure the public that at this time there is no evidence that food or food packaging have been associated with transmission and no reason to be concerned," Hahn said. "Further, there is no evidence to support transmission of COVID-19 associated with imported goods, including food and drugs for humans and pets, and there have not been any cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. associated with imported goods."
Fauci doesn't want people to worry about coronavirus, the danger of which is "just minuscule." But he does want them to take precautions against the "influenza outbreak, which is having its second wave."

Feb 25 https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-anthony-fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-be-prepared
"If you look at what has been done thus far in this country, it is correct that it has been contained very successfully," Fauci said. "We have not had communities spread from person-to-person -- that is good news.

"It might change, so ... right now it is under control but that doesn't mean you can let your guard down and think that it's nothing to be concerned about."

The travel ban was put in place Jan 31. Why would he do it sooner? With no concern expressed sooner, Trump would have been labeled an oligarch trying to control the masses! Oh wait......
 
I guess you aren't very good at that google thing?
Feb 17 https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...inuscule-skip-mask-and-wash-hands/4787209002/
"We want to reassure the public that at this time there is no evidence that food or food packaging have been associated with transmission and no reason to be concerned," Hahn said. "Further, there is no evidence to support transmission of COVID-19 associated with imported goods, including food and drugs for humans and pets, and there have not been any cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. associated with imported goods."
Fauci doesn't want people to worry about coronavirus, the danger of which is "just minuscule." But he does want them to take precautions against the "influenza outbreak, which is having its second wave."

Feb 25 https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-anthony-fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-be-prepared
"If you look at what has been done thus far in this country, it is correct that it has been contained very successfully," Fauci said. "We have not had communities spread from person-to-person -- that is good news.

"It might change, so ... right now it is under control but that doesn't mean you can let your guard down and think that it's nothing to be concerned about."

The travel ban was put in place Jan 31. Why would he do it sooner? With no concern expressed sooner, Trump would have been labeled an oligarch trying to control the masses! Oh wait......

Fauci, who wasn't "just touting the Trump line (served under Clinton, both Bushes, Obama, and now Trump), said it wasn't anything to be worried about or fear AFTER it was in the U S!

Now exactly where did he say "it wasn't anything to be worried about or fear"?

You make stuff up like the trumpy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
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I guess you aren't very good at that google thing?
Feb 17 https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...inuscule-skip-mask-and-wash-hands/4787209002/
Fauci doesn't want people to worry about coronavirus, the danger of which is "just minuscule." But he does want them to take precautions against the "influenza outbreak, which is having its second wave."

Feb 25 https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-anthony-fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-be-prepared
"If you look at what has been done thus far in this country, it is correct that it has been contained very successfully," Fauci said.

Now exactly where did he say "it wasn't anything to be worried about or fear"?

I guess it was too long for you to read so i've narrowed it down for you
 
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