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How deadly is Covid-19?

It is still uncertain but in the US the range on the high side is about 1.3%. Not sure of the low side because we just don’t know how many are tested and recovered but it looks like will be somewhere between .6 and 1%, disproportionately in the older population. Under 50 years old it looks to be less than .1%.

if we get a real spike though and it hits a community that doesn’t have enough supplies to respond that will bump up. We have read about rationing in Italy and I just saw a article about an abandoned senior center in Spain with several dead.
 
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It is still uncertain but in the US the range on the high side is about 1.3%. Not sure of the low side because we just don’t know how many are tested and recovered but it looks like will be somewhere between .6 and 1%, disproportionately in the older population. Under 50 years old it looks to be less than .1%.

if we get a real spike though and it hits a community that doesn’t have enough supplies to respond that will bump up. We have read about rationing in Italy and I just saw a article about an abandoned senior center in Spain with several dead.

We don't know.
We know a lot more people have had it than were tested.
We know it can overwhelm places because it's 5× more contagious.
We know where it has overwhelmed.
Epidemiologist have vastly over estimated.
 
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It is still uncertain but in the US the range on the high side is about 1.3%. Not sure of the low side because we just don’t know how many are tested and recovered but it looks like will be somewhere between .6 and 1%, disproportionately in the older population. Under 50 years old it looks to be less than .1%.

if we get a real spike though and it hits a community that doesn’t have enough supplies to respond that will bump up. We have read about rationing in Italy and I just saw a article about an abandoned senior center in Spain with several dead.
Even those numbers are skewed. They only include those who have tested positive. Those who are positive but not tested aren't in there and no one is estimating that like they do with flu rates.
Ultimately, deaths per x-amount of population will be the determiner of how deadly this is compared to other illnesses.
 
Even those numbers are skewed. They only include those who have tested positive. Those who are positive but not tested aren't in there and no one is estimating that like they do with flu rates.
Ultimately, deaths per x-amount of population will be the determiner of how deadly this is compared to other illnesses.

Agreed but we have a fairly decent baseline to guess from.
 
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Agreed but we have a fairly decent baseline to guess from.
Now they say it very likely come back next winter. It's staying to show up in the southern hemisphere where they are heading into cold weather. The death toll may not be as bad as the flu over a year's time, we can't know that yet if it comes back next fall. How many people with the flu have to go on a ventilator? Serious question, I just don't recall hearing about it that much. We will still have to see if this virus is causing permanent damage to the lungs of those that had had it and survived.
 
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Now they say it very likely come back next winter. It's staying to show up in the southern hemisphere where they are heading into cold weather. The death toll may not be as bad as the flu over a year's time, we can
n't know that yet if it comes back next fall. How many people with the flu have to go on a ventilator. Serious question, I just don't recall hearing about it that much. We will still have to see if this virus is causing permanent damage to the lungs of those that had had it and survived.

They have said for a while that it could be seasonal and come in waves.
 
I’ve long said that I believe the closure of the economy would kill far more than this virus. While I do think Covid-19 is a problem, I still don’t see it nearly as deadly as the flu. I highly recommend you read the article to understand the numbers of what they realistically should/would look like.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464
Yep the cure is going to hurt us worse than problem. Pneumonia still killed more last year in the states.
 
They have said for a while that it could be seasonal and come in waves.
I've seen a lot of the press conferences and none of them have been saying this until recently. Maybe Trump pushed them off them off the stage before they could get it out.
 
Probably will see less now that your channels have decided showing them was helping Trump.
They still have them on at least once a day. Maybe they help him because he makes people who don't want to believe this a bad thing that it really isn't and we'll be back to normal in no time. :eek:
 
Yeah looks like that could be the deal with this thang too. It's just getting stared in the southern hemisphere so we'll se how they handle it and how travel from that area goes.
The hope is by the time it is the next go around that a good portion of the population is recovered. D immune reducing the rate of spread.
 
We have to get over this round first, hopefully that is before the next round comes along.

Mixed bag right now. Statistically the fatality rate to cases is currently up to about 1.7%

Will be close but Italy might have 4 days in a row with less deaths. US had less deaths yesterday than Saturday and might be down again today. Not a lot but there the numbers are starting to suggest the curve is flattening.
 
Mixed bag right now. Statistically the fatality rate to cases is currently up to about 1.7%

Will be close but Italy might have 4 days in a row with less deaths. US had less deaths yesterday than Saturday and might be down again today. Not a lot but there the numbers are starting to suggest the curve is flattening.
Italy’s numbers are skewed, though. Covid-19 is listed as the cause of death even if a patient was already ill and died from a combination of illnesses. Only about 12% of their deaths have shown direct causality from coronavirus.
 
Now they say it very likely come back next winter. It's staying to show up in the southern hemisphere where they are heading into cold weather. The death toll may not be as bad as the flu over a year's time, we can't know that yet if it comes back next fall. How many people with the flu have to go on a ventilator? Serious question, I just don't recall hearing about it that much. We will still have to see if this virus is causing permanent damage to the lungs of those that had had it and survived.
It's not starting to show in the Southern Hemisphere and warm places; it's there and has been there. Look at Brazil, Australia, Malaysia, Philippines, etc. The idea that this is a cold weather bug seemed like more of a guess than an actual conclusion supported by data.
 
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Italy’s numbers are skewed, though. Covid-19 is listed as the cause of death even if a patient was already ill and died from a combination of illnesses. Only about 12% of their deaths have shown direct causality from coronavirus.
That's still a death from the coronavirus. I don't get your point at all. If someone is sick and immunocompromised and they die from a communicable disease that we could have prevented, we should include that in the total. If someone who is 64 with COPD dies of Coronavirus, that's a COVID death.

This is like saying AIDS isn't a big deal because pneumonia or something else kills you, not the virus that causes AIDS.

The only reasonable conclusion in Italy and Spain is that deaths are undercounted. Notably, Italy/Spain/etc. are generally only tabulating confirmed COVID hospital deaths. If you die at home, they may not be counting you as a COVID death. These are also overwhelmed health systems.
 
That's still a death from the coronavirus. I don't get your point at all. If someone is sick and immunocompromised and they die from a communicable disease that we could have prevented, we should include that in the total. If someone who is 64 with COPD dies of Coronavirus, that's a COVID death.

This is like saying AIDS isn't a big deal because pneumonia or something else kills you, not the virus that causes AIDS.

The only reasonable conclusion in Italy and Spain is that deaths are undercounted. Notably, Italy/Spain/etc. are generally only tabulating confirmed COVID hospital deaths. If you die at home, they may not be counting you as a COVID death. These are also overwhelmed health systems.
If someone gets shot in the head and dies but also had coronavirus, what do you think their cause of death was?

I’m not suggesting that is what Italy is reporting but 88% of the people who have died with Covid-19, also had other illnesses that could have caused their death as well. So to suggest that all X of the people that have died in Italy was a sole result of Covid-19 is false and is why their numbers are skewed.
 
If someone gets shot in the head and dies but also had coronavirus, what do you think their cause of death was?

I’m not suggesting that is what Italy is reporting but 88% of the people who have died with Covid-19, also had other illnesses that could have caused their death as well. So to suggest that all X of the people that have died in Italy was a sole result of Covid-19 is false and is why their numbers are skewed.
the cause of death is ballistic trauma if you're shot in the head, even if you have cancer. The secondary issues only matter if they affect prognosis.

Basically every death from the flu and all communicable diseases come from people who are old/very young/compromised in some way. The point is that these are people who would live if they avoided that infection, and it is reasonable to call that their cause of death.
 
While it is true the cause of death was Covid, it is still misleading in that the family would not have been shocked to get a call saying granny had died without the virus existing.
Officially, my dad died of a heart attack....the cancer had surrounded and squeezed his heart. The actual cause of death in most of these cases is old age.....something was going to get them as frail as they are.
 
It's not starting to show in the Southern Hemisphere and warm places; it's there and has been there. Look at Brazil, Australia, Malaysia, Philippines, etc. The idea that this is a cold weather bug seemed like more of a guess than an actual conclusion supported by data.
You need to tell Dr. Fauci that, he is the one I heard talking about it.
 
You need to tell Dr. Fauci that, he is the one I heard talking about it.
Technically what they had said is that it could affect spread and it could be seasonal, but that we don’t have definitive evidence that it will work out this way. This includes the doctor.
 
The death toll is unfortunately still rising but there definitely looks like there is a flattening of the curve in terms of new cases per day. The rate of growth from the previous day in last week.

March 25. 22%
March 26. 29%
March 27 8.5%
March 28 4.1%
March 29 2.4%
March 30 2.1%. 20,352 new cases.

That is still a large number of cases each but the growth is no longer exponential. I realize there is a drag in some test results but I’m guessing 3-25 and 3-26 is when a bunch of them came in.
 
It's still not 45 million cases and 61000 deaths (2017-18 flu season numbers)...and we had a vaccine then.

I think once we determined we hit "peak" we start slowing letting the rope back out...we aren't going to eradicate this thing entirely...but lets try to get over it asap.
 
The death toll is unfortunately still rising but there definitely looks like there is a flattening of the curve in terms of new cases per day. The rate of growth from the previous day in last week.

March 25. 22%
March 26. 29%
March 27 8.5%
March 28 4.1%
March 29 2.4%
March 30 2.1%. 20,352 new cases.

That is still a large number of cases each but the growth is no longer exponential. I realize there is a drag in some test results but I’m guessing 3-25 and 3-26 is when a bunch of them came in.
Coronavirus tests on the 25th in the US: 76k
on the 27th: 107k
on the 30th: 113k

Rate of positive tests on the 27th: 17.4%. Rate on the 30th: 18.9%. Granted, the data are not perfect, but the only conclusion you can draw is that case counts spiked as we increased testing, and they've plateaued when we stopped increasing our daily testing capabilities. This is not evidence that we have flattened the curve of anything other than our rate of growth in testing capabilities.

If anything, it's probably more concerning that we're testing more people and the rate of positive tests isn't declining. We tested 46k people on the 22nd. The positive rate was in the 18% range that day. We've more than doubled our daily testing with zero decline in the positive rate. Given we were hoarding tests for the most likely cases before, the current rate of positive tests is not at all a good sign that we have flattened the curve.
 
Coronavirus tests on the 25th in the US: 76k
on the 27th: 107k
on the 30th: 113k

Rate of positive tests on the 27th: 17.4%. Rate on the 30th: 18.9%. Granted, the data are not perfect, but the only conclusion you can draw is that case counts spiked as we increased testing, and they've plateaued when we stopped increasing our daily testing capabilities. This is not evidence that we have flattened the curve of anything other than our rate of growth in testing capabilities.

If anything, it's probably more concerning that we're testing more people and the rate of positive tests isn't declining. We tested 46k people on the 22nd. The positive rate was in the 18% range that day. We've more than doubled our daily testing with zero decline in the positive rate. Given we were hoarding tests for the most likely cases before, the current rate of positive tests is not at all a good sign that we have flattened the curve.
It does tell us the mortality rate is lower than projected
 
Coronavirus tests on the 25th in the US: 76k
on the 27th: 107k
on the 30th: 113k

Rate of positive tests on the 27th: 17.4%. Rate on the 30th: 18.9%. Granted, the data are not perfect, but the only conclusion you can draw is that case counts spiked as we increased testing, and they've plateaued when we stopped increasing our daily testing capabilities. This is not evidence that we have flattened the curve of anything other than our rate of growth in testing capabilities.

If anything, it's probably more concerning that we're testing more people and the rate of positive tests isn't declining. We tested 46k people on the 22nd. The positive rate was in the 18% range that day. We've more than doubled our daily testing with zero decline in the positive rate. Given we were hoarding tests for the most likely cases before, the current rate of positive tests is not at all a good sign that we have flattened the curve.

If we are taking much more tests and the rate of new infections is slowing that would definitely be flattening of the curve.

I am interested in data from California. I really wonder if a bunch of people haven’t already had the virus and recovered because the rate in California doesn’t match the population especially given the amount of travel to and from China before the travel ban.
 
Who on here is a doctor? Who on here has direct unbiased statistics?

If you're that person please continue this discussion and give us informed conclusions. If you're not that person, what are you really contributing? Speculation. That's all.

None of us KNOW anything. Stop it.
 
I don’t find it scary that we find more and more. Just confirming we never had it contained in the first place. And likely it isn’t nearly as doomsday as everyone says on the news
If you're testing a population that was less likely to have been exposed, you should have seen a decline in the rate of cases that were positive. They weren't saving tests for old people who might die. They were constraining them to people who had specifically traveled to other places with known outbreaks or for people who were already sick in the hospital. Literally, they were picking the people that they thought have the disease and testing only them.

if we had more community testing 2 weeks ago, it's very, very likely the rate of positive test results would have been lower than we're currently seeing.
 
If we are taking much more tests and the rate of new infections is slowing that would definitely be flattening of the curve.

I am interested in data from California. I really wonder if a bunch of people haven’t already had the virus and recovered because the rate in California doesn’t match the population especially given the amount of travel to and from China before the travel ban.
It is interesting that Seattle and SF never had what NYC has. Very, very interesting. It's one thing to miss a wave of tests/cases, which we probably did in some places. but the public health authorities could not miss if the ERs and hospitals were as jammed as they are in NYC right now.

It does seem clear that it spread first in SF vs. LA as well; LA seems to be more of an emerging spot like ATL or Miami than a mid-stage case like NYC.
 
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