Herd Immunity as an option
- Thread starter Duck_walk
- Start date
Conclusion
So let’s go back to that 70 percent herd immunity threshold. If the fatality rate is around 0.5 percent and 70 percent of Americans have to get sick before their immunity starts protecting others, that means more than 1.1 million people would die. In New York, even having 21 percent of the population exposed, if that serological survey is accurate, has overrun hospitals and led to the death of one in every 400 New Yorkers, while the vast majority of the population remains susceptible.
“That’s the cost of getting to 20 percent,” said Emma Hodcroft, a postdoctoral epidemiology researcher at the University of Basel in Switzerland. “It really illustrates the price you’re going to pay if you want to get up to the 60 percent or 70 percent that you’ll need for herd immunity, and I hope it really illustrates why that just isn’t a feasible plan.”
So let’s go back to that 70 percent herd immunity threshold. If the fatality rate is around 0.5 percent and 70 percent of Americans have to get sick before their immunity starts protecting others, that means more than 1.1 million people would die. In New York, even having 21 percent of the population exposed, if that serological survey is accurate, has overrun hospitals and led to the death of one in every 400 New Yorkers, while the vast majority of the population remains susceptible.
“That’s the cost of getting to 20 percent,” said Emma Hodcroft, a postdoctoral epidemiology researcher at the University of Basel in Switzerland. “It really illustrates the price you’re going to pay if you want to get up to the 60 percent or 70 percent that you’ll need for herd immunity, and I hope it really illustrates why that just isn’t a feasible plan.”
Obviously few here actually understands herd immunity so I’ll dumb it down.
Vulnerable population =. stay isolated , don’t let Cuomo put sick in rest homes
Population with minuscule chance of death = herd, don’t go out of your way to get sick but don’t cower in fear. More likely if you die it will be heart disease, cancer or an auto accident...l
There is NO guarantee there will EVER be a vaccine so if you aren’t high risk get out there, take reasonable precautions and go out and make a living and if you don’t then don’t be surprised if your state goes broke.
You can also quit citing models from people that thought mad cow would kill 100,000 when it killed less than 200. Did the lockdown in Italy work better than the less draconian approach in Sweden?
I think one point you are trying to make is that you didn’t read the article.
Since the new coronavirus is highly contagious (meaning a large percentage of the population would have to get it to slow its spread), the human toll of reaching herd immunity without a vaccine would be staggering. And that’s assuming that once a person gets sick, they stay immune for a long time. But at this point, we don’t know if that’s the case.
They are not totally sold that people are immune and how long they will stay immune with covid-19.
Since the new coronavirus is highly contagious (meaning a large percentage of the population would have to get it to slow its spread), the human toll of reaching herd immunity without a vaccine would be staggering. And that’s assuming that once a person gets sick, they stay immune for a long time. But at this point, we don’t know if that’s the case.
They are not totally sold that people are immune and how long they will stay immune with covid-19.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-ou...ty-against-covid-19-a-dangerous-misconception
A good short article from John Hopkins
A good short article from John Hopkins
I think the point is, you can cherry pick any data point you want and find an article that will support your viewpoint.
Doesn't make it valid. You're not a doctor, you've never worked in healthcare, you should probably stay in your lane.
The point is that eventually no matter the amount of deaths Society will have to reopen. A half million or a Million of the most vulnerable no matter how distasteful might have to be acceptable. The idea that a vaccine is going to save us might be a bit of wishful thinking in the next 8-12 months. This might be the new norm and people might just have to live with the Risk.
Is there inherent risk to just being alive?
And this is how we thank our "Greatest Generation". They knew what the word "sacrifice" meant.
Man, if not for Covid they would have lived forever...heck even with WuFlu 99.8% of them will still survive...
My mom got pretty sick with the flu when she was in her mid 80s. That was 7 years ago. She turns 93 this summer, still lives by herself, drives all over town, does her own shopping, and has spent time with 6 new great grandchildren since that flu hit.
Devaluing the lives of her generation is just awful. For some, It’s sinful.
1. No one is "devaluing" anyone. The fact is the most at-risk people are people over 60 with health problems. More often than not, those people aren't in the workforce anyway, so why are we shutting down the entire economy?
2. People who are at-risk should definitely have the option to stay at home and have supplies delivered to avoid infection. Give people all the information (without CNN fearmongering) and let them make informed decisions how to behave. Go ahead and provide social distancing/hygiene guidelines and let people take care of themselves.
3. Don't invoke sin. You don't get to mock God and religion and then try to weaponize it against people who actually believe. I mean yeah you CAN do it, but that's a low move and not to be taken seriously by anyone with half a brain.
I was forced to sit thru listening to this religious nonsense the first 18 years of my life.
And I recognize that you are a sinner.
Whatever that is. End of discussion.
I am a sinner, that is absolutely right.
Everything else you wrote is hyperbolic hateful nonsense.
1. That's exactly what you are doing...
2. Without societal cooperation, no one is safe. The only true leadership that we are getting is from the scientific community and they continue to be devalued by Trump and his minions.
3. You don't truly know what Duck or anyone else believes and you don't speak for God.
1. It's not. It's called triage.
2. Take care of yourself with the tools and information you have. Don't expect Daddy Gubmint to help you out.
3. You're right, I'm making inferences based on things he's said about religion. Notice I never called him an atheist or even referenced his "beliefs", I said he has mocked religion and the religious on here (which is true), and that if he cares so little about religion, he shouldn't try to weaponize it when it's convenient for him (also arguably true). Never claimed to speak for God, but keep putting words in my mouth.
Reading comprehension sir...
1. I'd love to believe that, but it's not. Trump has in effect washed his hands of the whole mess. (His hands are still dirty)
2.... unless your a large corporation with Heritage Society hookup. Good ole corporate welfare. Grover Norquist, where are you ?
3. I can buy a little bit of what you say but I often times question the so called religious on here and their "my way or the highway attitudes."
1. You're moving the goalposts. We were talking about posters on here and their empathy, or lack thereof, for the elderly and infirm. Trump has nothing to do with this conversation.
2. Discussing individual responsibility for one's health. Noce attempt to reframe the argument.
3. People who mock religion and then use it as a weapon (usually out of context) when convenient to "shame" religious people are at best hypocrites.
1. He has everything to do with this conversation.
2. You know that is a total misnomer... We are all dependent on healthcare.
3. You totally make my point..."my way or the highway."
Try not to be so self absorbed and repetitive, it makes you boring !
That is all...
I’ve asked this before with no response. How do you feel about the life of the unborn child?
It should be the same as you feel about the elderly on this thread.
1. Lol not this conversation. Involving him is a red herring.
2. Yes and preventative healthcare starts at the individual level. You are responsible for doing what you can to keep YOU healthy. If you know you're high risk for this virus, stay home, wear PPE if you can't stay home, wash your hands, social distancing...you know stuff YOU can control.
3. I'm not saying he "can't" do anything or trying to "get my way". I'm just saying non-religious people who try to weaponize religion against it's adherents aren't to be taken seriously. They're bad people.
unborn children are not born. When someone has a miscarriage I am sad as hell for them. When someone intentionally ends a pregnancy, it is none of my business.
I would put more credence in your concern for the unborn if you didn’t vote for people who fight like tigers to deny universal health care for families and food stamps for poor people.
The pro-birth party is absolutely not pro-life.
But still children. What's it called when you kill a child?
Conservatives are pro-personal responsibility.
It's not my responsibility to provide for you or anyone else. I am responsible for me and my family.
I don't want, or expect you to provide for me and mine.
You are contradicting yourself.
I don’t vote for one specific party.
I am somewhat conservative but probably more down the middle than anyone on here.
All I am looking for is common sense.
Yes. And I have it. No one in my family has ever gotten an abortion. We don’t believe in getting an abortion. We are against abortion.
But that issue does not dictate who we all vote for. The republicans have used it to get the catholic vote for years now. One, and only one of my sisters has voted republican for years because of that one issue. Guess what. She is so repulsed by Trump, she is voting for Biden.
If this issue is so important to you why don’t you go into counseling in the inner city or pass out the pill or condoms? Maybe go on a speaking tour. Bringing it up over and over on a message board isn’t changing any minds and your target audience isn’t here.
Republicans have had the White House, house, and senate and did nothing.
Why is that? Because they love the hot button wedge issue. They love your vote but they don’t freakin really care.
Interesting you bring this up, Mitch. What have the Dems for the African-American community? What about the Latino community?
Do you think giving all the illegal immigrants in California cash during this virus is a great use of tax dollars?
No, it has nothing to do with controlling the House or Senate. In order for Roe v. Wade to be overturned it would require a new ruling by the Supreme Court.
Using the "Republicans had control and did nothing" is a nonsense misdirection in order to control the conversation against people who either don't know any better or don't care to research it.
End of the day Roe v Wade has to be overturned by state decisions making it to the Supreme Court and the USSC deciding on it.
Oh btw, it is overwhelmingly red states that are making laws to curb abortion, those laws are the ones the Supreme Court will eventually be deciding on.
“Bringing it up over and over on a message board isn’t changing any minds and your target audience isn’t here.”
You are correct and really telling someone this???
You are correct and really telling someone this???
