This has been a little offseason project of mine. This was all inspired by a 2020 playoff game where the roster of 60 I coached on was depleted to just 24 due to COVID. We were having a pretty great season and we were playing for a ticket to the District Championship against the #6 team in the state. The problem? Our 24 kids couldn't match up with the opposition's 83. We played our hearts out, never trailing until late in the third quarter. We just did not have the depth to compete with the opposition. Now, I coach at a Class 1 school where this small roster size is an everyday reality. The differences in a team of 30 kids playing a team of 40-50 are huge.
This made me consider a tactic MSHSAA could employ for parity. What if we added a roster size multiplier to the enrollments of schools and classified them from there? These roster size desparities are an underrated factor in the lack of parity facing our game. We cannot control whether or not teams recruit, but we can control a team that is a couple of injuries away from forfeiting playing against a team that's three-deep at every position in big games.
In doing this, I formulated the current enrollments listed on MSHSAA and morphed them into a 9-12 estimate. From there, I listed the roster sizes of each school (also on MSHSAA). Subjectively, I found that the "ideal" roster size is 44 kids. In an ideal world with relatively even amounts of kids per grade, this could allow for teams to go two-deep on J.V. and maybe even afford a freshman/C-team. In doing this, every one number greater or less than 44 added 10 students to the 9-12 enrollment. So a school of 450 with 48 kids playing football would play as a school of 490 kids with this adjusted enrollment factor. This doesn't make huge differences compared to where we are now, but schools in high-participation conferences (Clarence Cannon, Big 8, etc.) are sometimes found playing "up" a division with this. Some schools that are greatly affected are the ones with the extremely inflated rosters. Three that come to mind are Smithville (123), Kearney (110), and Centralia (83) who all experience enrollment boosts of 790, 660, and 390 respectfully. This may seem unfair to them, but it isn't fair to their regular competition to play a team with 2-4x as many players as they do. We already have rules in place that prevent a public school from playing against a school twice its size in their classification. Why not apply that principle to the actual players on the field as well?
This actually has a similar effect on the private schools as the current rules in place. Not all private schools are built the same. St. Vincent, Springfield Catholic, and even Helias are different entities than DeSmet, CBC, or Lutheran North. Usually the schools who get complained about the most on here also boast great numbers compared to their competition. Lutheran North has 50 kids, Grandview Hillsboro has 27. Similar enrollments, but very different situations and rosters. With that said, it's equally important for enrollment size to be considered in this. If we're just classifying based off of roster sizes, Centralia and Carthage would be in the same classification. 83/1,000 kids is a different animal than 83/500. This formula considers both enrollment and roster size, not just one or the other.
Full Results & Enrollments Adjusted
For the district alignments, consider that MSHSAA will have 312 teams playing 11-man football in 2022. That is unless there is some sort of 8-man news I haven't read up on yet. You could keep it as 6 classes, with 52 in each. However, in what I found, having six classes makes for some very odd geography and it becomes tough to divide into districts. I'm not a fan of what MSHSAA currently does, which spots certain teams a BYE because they play in a 6-team district vs. 7-team districts. I'm a big fan of keeping every district even numerically and keeping geographic integrity. This is why I'm a bigger fan of four classes of 78 teams in each. Each class has six districts of thirteen teams.
Teams by District & Classification
To take things a step further, I'm also a big fan of playing your district. We all love non-conference showdowns like Blair Oaks/Maryville, but our state is a circus with scheduling. You have some conferences with literally five teams (Mississippi River Conference) and others that offer a full regular season slate of only conference games (COC, CCC). With 13-team districts, this gives every team 12 games. Before people come clamoring in about, how that's too many games, remember that each Class only has 6 districts. You win your 13-team district to make the playoffs. There's a quarterfinal, semifinal, and a state game. 15 games are still being played by the state finalists. Giving every team 12 games gives everyone a chance to play in November as well.
Sorry for the long post, it's been a lot of thought put into this. What do you guys think about it?
This made me consider a tactic MSHSAA could employ for parity. What if we added a roster size multiplier to the enrollments of schools and classified them from there? These roster size desparities are an underrated factor in the lack of parity facing our game. We cannot control whether or not teams recruit, but we can control a team that is a couple of injuries away from forfeiting playing against a team that's three-deep at every position in big games.
In doing this, I formulated the current enrollments listed on MSHSAA and morphed them into a 9-12 estimate. From there, I listed the roster sizes of each school (also on MSHSAA). Subjectively, I found that the "ideal" roster size is 44 kids. In an ideal world with relatively even amounts of kids per grade, this could allow for teams to go two-deep on J.V. and maybe even afford a freshman/C-team. In doing this, every one number greater or less than 44 added 10 students to the 9-12 enrollment. So a school of 450 with 48 kids playing football would play as a school of 490 kids with this adjusted enrollment factor. This doesn't make huge differences compared to where we are now, but schools in high-participation conferences (Clarence Cannon, Big 8, etc.) are sometimes found playing "up" a division with this. Some schools that are greatly affected are the ones with the extremely inflated rosters. Three that come to mind are Smithville (123), Kearney (110), and Centralia (83) who all experience enrollment boosts of 790, 660, and 390 respectfully. This may seem unfair to them, but it isn't fair to their regular competition to play a team with 2-4x as many players as they do. We already have rules in place that prevent a public school from playing against a school twice its size in their classification. Why not apply that principle to the actual players on the field as well?
This actually has a similar effect on the private schools as the current rules in place. Not all private schools are built the same. St. Vincent, Springfield Catholic, and even Helias are different entities than DeSmet, CBC, or Lutheran North. Usually the schools who get complained about the most on here also boast great numbers compared to their competition. Lutheran North has 50 kids, Grandview Hillsboro has 27. Similar enrollments, but very different situations and rosters. With that said, it's equally important for enrollment size to be considered in this. If we're just classifying based off of roster sizes, Centralia and Carthage would be in the same classification. 83/1,000 kids is a different animal than 83/500. This formula considers both enrollment and roster size, not just one or the other.
Full Results & Enrollments Adjusted
For the district alignments, consider that MSHSAA will have 312 teams playing 11-man football in 2022. That is unless there is some sort of 8-man news I haven't read up on yet. You could keep it as 6 classes, with 52 in each. However, in what I found, having six classes makes for some very odd geography and it becomes tough to divide into districts. I'm not a fan of what MSHSAA currently does, which spots certain teams a BYE because they play in a 6-team district vs. 7-team districts. I'm a big fan of keeping every district even numerically and keeping geographic integrity. This is why I'm a bigger fan of four classes of 78 teams in each. Each class has six districts of thirteen teams.
Teams by District & Classification
To take things a step further, I'm also a big fan of playing your district. We all love non-conference showdowns like Blair Oaks/Maryville, but our state is a circus with scheduling. You have some conferences with literally five teams (Mississippi River Conference) and others that offer a full regular season slate of only conference games (COC, CCC). With 13-team districts, this gives every team 12 games. Before people come clamoring in about, how that's too many games, remember that each Class only has 6 districts. You win your 13-team district to make the playoffs. There's a quarterfinal, semifinal, and a state game. 15 games are still being played by the state finalists. Giving every team 12 games gives everyone a chance to play in November as well.
Sorry for the long post, it's been a lot of thought put into this. What do you guys think about it?
