Class 4 District 5 - DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN

[Mister_Wizard]

1. Carl Junction
2. Camdenton
3. Webb City
4. Bolivar
5. Hillcrest
6. West Plains
7. Marshfield
8. McDonald County

Heading into the final week of the season, Mac appears to be a lock at 8 and the same can be said for Marshfield at 7.

Top 3 seeds will be the top 3 listed above, but not in that order necessarily. CJ could be 1 or 2, Cam any of the 3, and Webb with a glimmer of hope of climbing to #2.

I believe Bolivar will lose to Ozark and could fall as far as sixth. Hillcrest will get a ratings boost by playing class 6 Joplin and West Plains should be a solid favorite to beat 1-7 Rolla this week.

Big finish ahead - as Rock Hard Corn Frog pointed out the 1 and 2 seeds get a much easier first round game than 3 thru 6.

And ultimately somebody pretty good is traveling all the way to Camdenton, or the Lakers are facing one or perhaps two long trips to Jasper County.

 

[JNreturns]

1. Carl Junction
2. Camdenton
3. Webb City
4. Bolivar
5. Hillcrest
6. West Plains
7. Marshfield
8. McDonald County

Heading into the final week of the season, Mac appears to be a lock at 8 and the same can be said for Marshfield at 7.

Top 3 seeds will be the top 3 listed above, but not in that order necessarily. CJ could be 1 or 2, Cam any of the 3, and Webb with a glimmer of hope of climbing to #2.

I believe Bolivar will lose to Ozark and could fall as far as sixth. Hillcrest will get a ratings boost by playing class 6 Joplin and West Plains should be a solid favorite to beat 1-7 Rolla this week.

Big finish ahead - as Rock Hard Corn Frog pointed out the 1 and 2 seeds get a much easier first round game than 3 thru 6.

And ultimately somebody pretty good is traveling all the way to Camdenton, or the Lakers are facing one or perhaps two long trips to Jasper County.

I wish the second round on was all televised. Because it's gonna be a great show.

 

[AC100]

I wish the second round on was all televised. Because it's gonna be a great show.

Camdenton will almost certainly lose to Glendale. CJ will clinch first with a win ovet Nixa. If both lose who knows. Webb probably won't be able to get out of 3rd but the formula is complicatedm

 

[mizzoutiger13]

When Webb and Camdenton had the same record, Webb was ahead. The point system is hard to predict, but that leads me to believe that a Webb win plus a Camdenton loss will give WC the edge at the 2 seed.

 

[ChaoticFanatic]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but let's just say, hypothetically, if west Plains wins by 13+ for max points this week and moves past both bolivar and hillcrest, Hillcrest would get the 4th seed on a head to head since they beat WestPlains?
I don't if that's even possible with the points for west Plains to make that big of a jump, just saying IF it did happen, is that how it would shake out?

 

[AC100]

When Webb and Camdenton had the same record, Webb was ahead. The point system is hard to predict, but that leads me to believe that a Webb win plus a Camdenton loss will give WC the edge at the 2 seed.

The only issue is that Camdenton will get more credit for playing Glendale than Webb will get for playing Branson. It will be close.

 

[cardsbeatwriter]

It will most likely come down to points scored. Camdenton must lose by 13 or more and WC must win by 13 or more to give WC any chance at the 2 seed. Even then it will be close... the late Neosho touchdown may be very costly, it will be that close!

 

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

It will most likely come down to points scored. Camdenton must lose by 13 or more and WC must win by 13 or more to give WC any chance at the 2 seed. Even then it will be close... the late Neosho touchdown may be very costly, it will be that close!

Mister Wizard crunched the numbers and put the results in another thread but basically assuming he is correct (based on his other calculations I think he is) Webb City will barely edge Camdenton for the #2 seed if all of the below happens:

WC beats Branson by 13+
Camdenton loses to Glendale by 13+
Ozark beats Bolivar
Pittsburg beats Bonner Springs

It is hard to take anything for granted with WC right now but I think chances of winning by 13+ are pretty good. I think 2 and 3 will probably happen. Glendale looks like the best team in SWMO this year.

Bonner Springs is 2-4 so Pitt has a good chance of winning but that is probably what it comes down to.

If that scenario above plays out I predict the district match-ups will be as follows;
1 CJ vs 8 MC
4 Hillcrest vs 5 West Plains
3 Camdenton vs 6 Bolivar
2 WC vs 7 Marshfield

 

[Mister_Wizard]

It will most likely come down to points scored. Camdenton must lose by 13 or more and WC must win by 13 or more to give WC any chance at the 2 seed. Even then it will be close... the late Neosho touchdown may be very costly, it will be that close!

Webb does edge Camdenton for second, just BARELY, if both Ozark and Pittsburg (KS) also win this Friday (and assuming no overtime games in the OC).

 

[Mister_Wizard]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but let's just say, hypothetically, if west Plains wins by 13+ for max points this week and moves past both bolivar and hillcrest, Hillcrest would get the 4th seed on a head to head since they beat WestPlains?
I don't if that's even possible with the points for west Plains to make that big of a jump, just saying IF it did happen, is that how it would shake out?

Seems to me you are correct.

 

[mizzoutiger13]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but let's just say, hypothetically, if west Plains wins by 13+ for max points this week and moves past both bolivar and hillcrest, Hillcrest would get the 4th seed on a head to head since they beat WestPlains?
I don't if that's even possible with the points for west Plains to make that big of a jump, just saying IF it did happen, is that how it would shake out?

If they have the same record I think that's how it would play out.

 

[Mister_Wizard]

Is same record required in order for there to be a flip flop?

Elsewhere some were saying Neosho would pass Carthage if the Wildcats win their head to head this Friday.

 

[runbillyrun]

Is same record required in order for there to be a flip flop?

Elsewhere some were saying Neosho would pass Carthage if the Wildcats win their head to head this Friday.

NO - two teams that end next to each other (1-2, 2-3, 5-6, 7-8 etc) IF the lower seed defeated the higher in head to head then they 'flip flop'. Overall record no longer matters.

 

[AC100]

What

Is same record required in order for there to be a flip flop?

Elsewhere some were saying Neosho would pass Carthage if the Wildcats win their head to head this Friday.

What if CJ loses to Nixa? Can CJ drop from number 1?

 

[Mister_Wizard]

Different classes, so flip flop doesn't apply

 

[Mister_Wizard]

But yes CJ could drop to #2 behind Camdenton, just not due to the flip flop rule.

 

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

Is same record required in order for there to be a flip flop?

Elsewhere some were saying Neosho would pass Carthage if the Wildcats win their head to head this Friday.

Yes. Neosho is #2 in district right now and Carthage #1. Win or lose Carthage will have the better record and the most district points but the 2 seed can appeal and become the #1 seed if they win head to head.

 

[AC100]

But yes CJ could drop to #2 behind Camdenton, just not due to the flip flop rule.

If CJ loses by 13 and Camdenton loses by 13 would CJ lose the first spot because Glendale is a stronger opponent?

 

[Mister_Wizard]

No. According to my calculations, Camdenton would have to do somewhat better than CJ Friday night. It varies a bit depending on outcomes of Ozark and Pittsburg games - if both of them win then it looks to me like there's a 7 point window in CJ's favor. If Camdenton wins by 13, CJ needs to win by 6 or more. If Cam wins by 8, CJ needs to win (1 or more).

The window closes to only 3 if Bolivar beats Ozark and Pittsburg loses too, and there happens to be an overtime game in the Ozark Conference. A 13 point win by Camdenton would require a 10 point win by CJ. No overtime games? Then the window changes to 4 points, if Ozark and Pittsburg lose.

 

[AC100]

No. According to my calculations, Camdenton would have to do somewhat better than CJ Friday night. It varies a bit depending on outcomes of Ozark and Pittsburg games - if both of them win then it looks to me like there's a 7 point window in CJ's favor. If Camdenton wins by 13, CJ needs to win by 6 or more. If Cam wins by 8, CJ needs to win (1 or more).

The window closes to only 3 if Bolivar beats Ozark and Pittsburg loses too, and there happens to be an overtime game in the Ozark Conference. A 13 point win by Camdenton would require a 10 point win by CJ. No overtime games? Then the window changes to 4 points, if Ozark and Pittsburg lose.

Wow. Thanks for figuring that out.

 

[AC100]

Wow. Thanks for figuring that out.

It sounds like the bottom line is if Glendale beats Camdenton by 13 or more CJ is fine. I think that is the most likely outcome.

 

[Mister_Wizard]

If both CJ and Camdenton lose, then the point margin is 4. In other words if Camdenton lost by 9 or more, then CJ has it.

That improves to 5 if Pitt or Ozark wins.

And 7 if both Pitt and Ozark win. So a 1 point loss by Camdenton means CJ could lose by up to 8 and still have a higher rating.

(Always have to include the disclaimer: assuming no overtime games elsewhere among teams either has played, as those too are in the formula)

 

[Mister_Wizard]

The winner of this district plays the winner of district 6 in the state quarterfinals. Assuming each winner played the same number of home games during districts, who would host the 5/6 matchup? Is this a "bottom of the bracket" year for hosting, or do the bracket top teams get the advantage this year?

 

[mizzoutiger13]

I believe it is a bottom bracket year.

 

[mizzoutiger13]

I believe it is a bottom bracket year.

Webb City hosted Harrisonville last year when both were district one seeds and WC was the top side of the bracket.

 

[Mister_Wizard]

Agree, finally found it on mshsaa too. Applies when both teams have played the same number of home playoff games thus far, and if both hosted the district championship game or neither hosted. Can be a little confusing at first glance, but seems like a decent system.

If I were from Webb, I'd have it memorized I'm sure. (That's meant as a compliment)

 

[wcfootballfan]

"So, you're telling me there's a chance?"

 

[Mister_Wizard]

More like 1 in a million Lloyd

 

[wcfootballfan]

But, that's still a chance! All we need is one chance!

 

[cards64870]

Webb could win it all or lose in week 10 but they haven't strung enough wins together to convince anyone they can make a run. It's weird to think that teams are looking past WC this year. Maybe that's our only hope.

 

[Mister_Wizard]

Nobody who is about to play Webb, even this year, looks past them.

Great coaching, a defense that has been better than good all year, and running backs that can break it on any given run. That always gives a high school team a chance to at least win games 21-14.

 

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

Webb could win it all or lose in week 10 but they haven't strung enough wins together to convince anyone they can make a run. It's weird to think that teams are looking past WC this year. Maybe that's our only hope.

I don't think teams are looking past WC. I think they (correctly) see WC as the most beatable they have been in quite some time. That's not to say that when the smoke clears that WC won't be back on top but depending on how things shake out tonight it will be the first time since the new district format that WC won't basically have a bye week in week 10.

As a WC fan it is frustrating at times but in general it is pretty exciting that there are a number of teams that have a real shot this year.

 

[sw5890]

With the nearly perfect unbeatable streak over, teams this year are going into the WC game with some confidence that if they play their best they may actually have a chance. In years past I would imagine there was a significant mental obstacle to overcome, knowing that no one, including some of the biggest names from this state and others couldn't do it.

The thing WC fans should be proud of is that everyone is still talking about them even when they aren't looking poised to make a deep run into the playoffs.

 

[wcfanfourever]

As weak as class4 is this year I think we have as good a shot as anyone to make it to the title game. We may have an 8th grade QB pitching to that stud 7th grade kid but you got to do whatever it takes.

 

[wcfootballfan]

All Webb would have had to do all year long - HOLD ON TO THE BALL! Then everyone would of been talking once again about a trip to the championship. I believe (w/o going back to every game and checking stats) Webb out gained every team they played in total yards. They just can't get into the 20, 3 times like they did again Carthage in the first half and not score. Or turn it over 6 times against CJ and expect to win. Stop the turnovers, and Webb goes deep - hopefully deep enough to get back to CJ again - b/c that would be a great game again, with great high school football atmosphere!

 

[Mister_Wizard]

Pittsburg 20, Bonner Springs 8 at the half.

Webb: so you're telling me there's a chance indeed!

 

[mizzoutiger13]

Is there a max for the point differential? Glendale putting it on Camdenton right now.

 

[Mister_Wizard]

13 point max in any game

 

[mizzoutiger13]

Still a lot of variables, but right now looks like WC is going to sneak the 2 seed.

 

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

Webb does edge Camdenton for second, just BARELY, if both Ozark and Pittsburg (KS) also win this Friday (and assuming no overtime games in the OC).

If your calculations were correct then WC is (barely) the 2 seed. Pittsburg and Ozark won, there are no OT games in the OC and Glendale is up 28 late.