CCC title game, but probably more important SS has to win to maintain #1 seed over Bowling Green. Very interesting game.
Centralia 14 at South Shelby 48 Final
- Thread starter Cards1968
- Start date
Centralia needs this for district points otherwise they could fall considerably in seeding. South Shelby I consider is the favorite in this matchup
Centralia has a pretty firm grip on the #3 seed. Probably wouldn't hurt too many feelings to slip to #4 and avoid BO until the final. Don't see them getting any higher than #3 win or lose.
I would not agree on this. It is not known yet who will get the #1 seed. It will be a photo finish with SOS of the opponents being the difference maker unless Moberly can't get past Jeff City. So if then got Blair Oaks #2 and Centralia #3 then you got a collision course in week 2 of districts. If they want to avoid BO until the district final then you better start hoping for Jeff City to beat Moberly next week. So if you fall to #4 and Moberly loses to Jeff City then you still have BO in week 2 of playoffs as well.
It really doesn't matter - neither team is going to present BO with many problems.
Don't forget, Centralia will lose max points last week of the season in Opponents record.
I know I won't.
I know I won't.
Centralia failed to convert on 4th down at mid-field on their opening drive. Cardinals prompty score. 2 pt failed. 6-0 South.
After forcing a punt, Centralia takes it right down and scores just before halftime. 2 pt good. 26-8
Big kickoff return for South, but couldn't capitalize. 26-8 at half. South Shelby to get the ball.
Have you done the points on this one? I thought SS would be the 1 seed but wandered how close it was.
Here are the knowns:
South Shelby
8-0 = 20 points
Opponents record including Palmyra 40-24 = 16.25 points (still have previous 8 teams Week 9 result to factor in)
Point differential = 13 points (max)
Class Multiplier = 2.22 (repeating of course) including Palmyra
Total Points = 51.47 (current verified MSHSAA points through Week 8 = 52.29)
Bowling Green
8-0 = 20 points
Opponents record including North Callaway 30-34 = 14.69 points
Point differential = 13 points (max)
Class Multiplier = 3.33 (repeating of course) including North Callaway
Total Points = 51.02 (current verified MSHSAA points through Week 8 = 51.75)
Now, the easiest one to play with is margin of victory. Assuming Bowling Green wins by 13 or more, it only takes Palmyra keeping it within 8 to overcome the margin, Opponents record adjustments coming out equal. Problem is South Shelby already has a 1.56 point advantage there and should at minimum maintain that if not improve. Pretty much need a near if not outright upset by Palmyra to move Bowling Green ahead imo.
I did the math on this yesterday:
This is the projected numbers based on the most probable outcomes. Based upon the numbers, Palmyra basicly needs come within a couple points of South Shelby or beat them.
The difference that separates these 2 schools is the nonconference opponents of South Shelby, they have great records even though they are Class 1. That is enough to put them over the top in this race.
This is the projected numbers based on the most probable outcomes. Based upon the numbers, Palmyra basicly needs come within a couple points of South Shelby or beat them.
The difference that separates these 2 schools is the nonconference opponents of South Shelby, they have great records even though they are Class 1. That is enough to put them over the top in this race.
| Bowling Green | South Shelby | |||||
| Points | ||||||
| A | 20 | 20 | Win loss record | |||
| B | 3.333333 | 2.222222 | Playing Up Points | |||
| C | 14.58333 | 16.25 | SOS Points | |||
| D | 13 | 13 | Differential | |||
| Total Points | 50.91667 | 51.47222 | ||||
| Bowling Green | Class | Wins | losses | |||||
| opponent | ||||||||
| week 1 | louisiana | 1 | 2 | 7 | 110 | |||
| week 2 | Palmyra | 1 | 2 | 7 | 110 | |||
| week 3 | Lu St C | 4 | 3 | 6 | 120 | |||
| week 4 | Van Far | 1 | 5 | 4 | 140 | |||
| week 5 | Montgomery | | 2 | 6 | 3 | 150 | ||
| week 6 | South Cal | 2 | 6 | 3 | 150 | |||
| week 7 | Mark Twain | | 2 | 1 | 8 | 100 | ||
| week 8 | Wright City | | 3 | 6 | 3 | 150 | ||
| week 9 | North Callaway | | 2 | 2 | 7 | 110 | ||
81 | 1050 | 14.58333 | ||||||
| play up | 30 | 3.333333 | ||||||
| Differential | 117 | 13 | ||||||
| South Shelby | ||||||||
| week 1 | Milan | 1 | 8 | 1 | 170 | |||
| week 2 | Westran | 1 | 7 | 2 | 160 | |||
| week 3 | Brookfield | | 2 | 5 | 4 | 140 | ||
| week 4 | Monroe City | | 2 | 6 | 3 | 150 | ||
| week 5 | Clark County | | 2 | 6 | 3 | 150 | ||
| week 6 | Highland | 2 | 3 | 6 | 120 | |||
| week 7 | Macon | 3 | 0 | 9 | 90 | |||
| week 8 | Centralia | 3 | 8 | 1 | 170 | |||
| week 9 | Palmyra | 2 | 2 | 7 | 110 | |||
81 | 1170 | 16.25 | ||||||
| play up | 20 | 2.222222 | ||||||
| differential | 117 | 13 | ||||||
You add the numbers then subtract that by 90 in that case. (10 points for every win, 20 points for every loss). which basicly per MSHSAA rules takes the games that school was apart of out of the equation.
Though you have to make sure there was that amount of games. AKA Blair Oaks played a Kansas school, that school has only played 7 games so far. So you have to add up all wins and losses from those fields and then subtract 8 and then divide by that number of games.
took me 2.5 hours to get my spreadsheet i use to compute the numbers exactly correct.
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