Calpreps State Champion Predictions All Classes
- Thread starter mizzoutiger13
- Start date
Also how about that the top 4 of Class 4 has been better than the top 4 of class 5 over the past 5 or 6 years with some exceptions?
You may be confusing it with calperps, which gives totally different findings.
Look at the Top 5 teams in Class 5 for the past 7 years. 60% are from KC. 20% from St Louis...and the rest are from SW/Central Mo. Just FYI, football is a team sport, and St Louis is a relatively minor player in this team sport in Missouri. Good thing they have private schools though, or the impact would be almost nonesxistent.
Two years ago WC basically had 2 division 1 players and was the best team in the state regardless of class and ranked in the top 15 in the country. While # of Division 1 prospects is relevant it is far from a predictor on who will win.
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Yes. Which is why this is all taken with a big grain of salt, but it's very interesting to say the least.
Question: In the OP. Is all the projected district winners in the upper 1/2 of the enrollment teams. I know some of them are but I don't think any of them or in the 700, 800, or lower 900 enrollment numbers. Very seldom do we see any teams in those enrollment numbers to ever make it far and definitely not to the championship game. Seems like this is the only class where that happens.
The biggest disparity in relative size from the smallest schools to the largest is in Class 4. And no, the smaller schools rarely make it to the semis.
I guess it depends on how you look at relative size... in shear numbers its Class 6 where there is a 1024 student difference between the largest school and the smallest school.... if you go by percentage, its Class One not Class 4 . Class one has the biggest school more than twice the size of the smallest school... its the only class like that. (besides 8 man)
National rankings are the most valid. Very scientific.
We weren't talking number differences in enrollment that is pretty obvious. We are talking about the disparity of the teams itself. This is the only class where schools in the lower half of the enrollment for that class this being 700's to the low 900's,. ever makes it to the title game, and most times not even to the semi's. Just seems odd.
I think at least part of that is the good schools in that size range have been in Webb City's district.. ex. Bolivar and the past couple versions of CJ before they topped 1000 this year.
You might want to look at total students, not with the qualifier. Largest student population is 2557 with Blue Springs. That 2800 number is Desmet, all boys, doubled with multiplier. That number you say looks differently then doesn't it.
I said all along watch out for Hayti, but I believe it will be Lincoln vs Valle in the championship.
Wonder if mshsaa ever has taken that into account or has even ever noticed that in Class 4. I've always said class 6 only having 32 is beyond dumb. They should make that class at least bigger..bring class 5 up to 64 that would bring those higher class 5's into class 6 and the higher class 4's into class 5..make class 4 your catch all and I don't think there would be that much disparity in schools who are from 600 or so to 900.
Point taken and note I did not say WC was one of the best 15 teams in the country. In 2014 the Class 6 title game was CBC 31 Rock 24, with CBC stopping a bid by Rock to tie the game in the final minute. WC beat Rock 40-14.
The Class 5 championship was Battle 25 Nixa 22 Battle lost to C4 semifinalist Helias 29-14, Webb City beat Nixa 47-7. Parkway North had lost 29-0 in their district semifinals BTW.
My assertion of the point that WC was the beat team in the state regardless of Class in 2014 has a lot of supporting evidence.
I'm willing to guess there were at least a couple schools that year that managed to have 3 or more future D-I players which is back to my original point.
The system was set up in 6 classes at a time when the number of programs playing football was increasing by a few each cycle. If that trend from about 6 years ago had continued there would be 64 teams in classes 1-5 and Class 6 would grow until it had 64 teams.
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Sorry to be nitpicky but Helias Catholic was a quarterfinalist (lost 23-20 in OT to Kearney) but point(s) taken...........
True, but it was a defacto semifinal game. I wouldn't imply that Helias wasn't pretty clearly the 3rd best team in Class 4 in 2014 but even in that case they probably win Class 5 in 2014.
Disparity between the average enrollment of the top 3 vs. the bottom three in each Class.
CLASS 4 has the biggest disparity.
Class 6 51%
Class 5 34%
Class 4 72% (1,304 v. 755)
Class 3 59%
Class 2 39%
Class 1 49%
Parkway North was in class 5 district and there is huge difference up here in
class 5 and 4 . Play MICDS class 4 or Chaminade class 5 the difference
is huge, that is why they never play each other. The teams in Parkway North
district outside of Parkway Central , Parkway North would never schedule
the competition isn't there. Just follow the games in their district and see what
North and Central does to those good class 4 teams it will not be competitive. MICDS
St. Dominic both in North District both ranked in class 4 will get beat by 21 to 28
points by both North and Central. Webb in the past , Kearney now are in class 4 but
they are not class 4 type teams. Huge difference in a good class 4 team and a good
class 5 team.
class 5 and 4 . Play MICDS class 4 or Chaminade class 5 the difference
is huge, that is why they never play each other. The teams in Parkway North
district outside of Parkway Central , Parkway North would never schedule
the competition isn't there. Just follow the games in their district and see what
North and Central does to those good class 4 teams it will not be competitive. MICDS
St. Dominic both in North District both ranked in class 4 will get beat by 21 to 28
points by both North and Central. Webb in the past , Kearney now are in class 4 but
they are not class 4 type teams. Huge difference in a good class 4 team and a good
class 5 team.
Parkway North has 400 more students than MICDS and St. Dominic. Class 4 has a huge
enrollment disparity. North and Central should never be in class 4 but the enrollment
by MSHSAA has them in there. Can't imagine how excited the players are to get to play
teams so much smaller than them. North will have 80 kids playing where MICDS and
St.Dominic will have 40 on the varsity.
enrollment disparity. North and Central should never be in class 4 but the enrollment
by MSHSAA has them in there. Can't imagine how excited the players are to get to play
teams so much smaller than them. North will have 80 kids playing where MICDS and
St.Dominic will have 40 on the varsity.
"I knew class 4 Webb City, and these traditional STL-area class 4 schools are no Webb City!"
Point is, comparing Parkway North's opponents to other class 4 schools from around the state is apples and oranges. For example, you mention rosters of 40 players vs North's 80. Webb dresses out nearly 100, and that includes zero or minimal freshmen.
And if Webb doesn't win their district this year, then that means an even better team would be in Parkway North's path to the 'ship.
I'm fine with the boasts that PN is a good team. But there's a lot of talented teams they'll have to hurdle, with the best half dozen or so of class 4 capable of playing with or beating just about any class 5 team in Missouri this year.
Point is, comparing Parkway North's opponents to other class 4 schools from around the state is apples and oranges. For example, you mention rosters of 40 players vs North's 80. Webb dresses out nearly 100, and that includes zero or minimal freshmen.
And if Webb doesn't win their district this year, then that means an even better team would be in Parkway North's path to the 'ship.
I'm fine with the boasts that PN is a good team. But there's a lot of talented teams they'll have to hurdle, with the best half dozen or so of class 4 capable of playing with or beating just about any class 5 team in Missouri this year.
Looking back the last 8 there has been many teams that have made the Class 5 championship game and a few whos enrollment was in the bottom 30% of that class.
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Lol Troll. Lincoln is terrible. Pretty easy to go undefeated when you play the little sisters of the blind every week. Last year they were the worst undefeated team I have ever seen in my entire life. I doubt they beat Skyline in districts.
You're right, they'll probably smoke their own district. Nobody else sees what you see that makes you think since they were Class 5, they'll automatically beat everyone else in Class 4 on the way to the state game, just because they were Class 5. Parkway North has done nothing to make me believe that they're a true contender. I'd be more inclined to believe in Parkway Central, at least they did something in Class 5.
I think Lincoln in the replacement for Tipton of past years. Undefeated regular seasons then lose in the quarters or semis due to a week schedule.
Good analogy. There are others that fall into that category. Usually even before qtrs or semis, though. Lexington is trying to use that pattern recently also.
There is a reason why their head coach left the program after last year buddy! No knock on Marceline at all, but they are not nearly as good as they were last season. Time will tell. Good luck to both great programs.
No, it's 49%...but I don't think that is a relevant point anyway, among the larger classes, it has the largest disperity. Class 1 is skewed when 8 man school's play up.
Reading all of this is certainly entertaining, but I am glad that the gridiron is still the ultimate proving ground. Not one game was won or lost by a computer simulation or with chatboard chatter. Only 2 more days until playoffs begin. I can't wait!
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while we disagree on the numbers... I agree with how you want the classes broke down
