Class 3 District 4 Points

[bman_turbo2000]

Moberly currently leads in points due to their conference opponents mostly being Class 4. Their 1 loss along with their play up points has put them in position to get the #1 seed but they must win against Jefferson City in Week 9. If they lose and Blair Oaks wins even by 6 points against Southern Boone then Blair Oaks will get the #1 seed by .07 of a point. Here is the math:

Moberly loses by 1 point and Blair Oaks must win by 6 points.

Moberly - 49.56
Blair Oaks - 49.63

Moberly wins by 1 point and Blair Oaks wins by max differential 13:

Moberly - 50.88
Blair Oaks 50.41

#3 seed will depend if Southern Boone wins against Blair Oaks and if so by how much. If Southern Boone loses they will get the #4 seed and Centralia will get the #3 seed (I expect them to easily beat Macon).
So there you have it. No more gray areas.

 

[Wheels 1]

Moberly currently leads in points due to their conference opponents mostly being Class 4. Their 1 loss along with their play up points has put them in position to get the #1 seed but they must win against Jefferson City in Week 9. If they lose and Blair Oaks wins even by a point against Southern Boone then Blair Oaks will get the #1 seed by .7 of a point. Here is the math:

Moberly loses by 1 point and Blair Oaks wins by just 1 point:

Moberly - 49.31
Blair Oaks - 50.04

Moberly wins by 1 point and Blair Oaks wins by max differential 13:

Moberly - 50.80
Blair Oaks 50.37

#3 seed will depend if Southern Boone wins against Blair Oaks and if so by how much. If Southern Boone loses they will get the #4 seed and Centralia will get the #3 seed (I expect them to easily beat Macon).
So there you have it. No more gray areas.

Could you look at class 2 dist 7 if you have time and see if Bowling Green can get the 1 seed. I dont think they can if both South and BG win as both should. Thanks

 

[bman_turbo2000]

Could you look at class 2 dist 7 if you have time and see if Bowling Green can get the 1 seed. I dont think they can if both South and BG win as both should. Thanks

give me a few hours. It would take a bit. There is about 30+ calculations that have to be exact just to get the right numbers of what it is currently, then I have to calculate all of their opponents week 9 results but most probable results and then go into Bowling Green's points based upon minimum vs maximum differential. Its a ton of math.

 

[Wheels 1]

give me a few hours. It would take a bit. There is about 30+ calculations that have to be exact just to get the right numbers of what it is currently, then I have to calculate all of their opponents week 9 results but most probable results and then go into Bowling Green's points based upon minimum vs maximum differential. Its a ton of math.

Don't worry about it if it takes that long. I was just curious.

 

[bman_turbo2000]

Didn't take as long as I thought. Bowling Green won't have much of a chance.

Both should get max differential in week 9, Non conference opponents for bowling green wont do well with their opponents either.

Projected final points:

South Shelby: 51.47
Bowling Green: 50.91

It pays to play up in competition. It helps alot when your non conference opponents do well. Bowling Green suffered from their non conference opponents who did not do well.

 

[KHSDOGS]

Did you take the strength of schedule calculation into consideration when you came up with the numbers.

 

[bman_turbo2000]

Did you take the strength of schedule calculation into consideration when you came up with the numbers.

my numbers are correct. you can not calculate district points at all correctly without every piece and all of the calculations exact. I double check my work after I run through them in excel.

 

[Wheels 1]

Didn't take as long as I thought. Bowling Green won't have much of a chance.

Both should get max differential in week 9, Non conference opponents for bowling green wont do well with their opponents either.

Projected final points:

South Shelby: 51.47
Bowling Green: 50.91

It pays to play up in competition. It helps alot when your non conference opponents do well. Bowling Green suffered from their non conference opponents who did not do well.

Thanks

 

[AC100]

I was wondering if Carl Junction would pass Harrisonville in class 4 district 7 if they both lose by the max but I guess I am not good enough at math. Specifically the opponents SOS.

 

[bman_turbo2000]

I was wondering if Carl Junction would pass Harrisonville in class 4 district 7 if they both lose by the max but I guess I am not good enough at math. Specifically the opponents SOS.

I just glanced at their schedule and it is not possible. Carl Junction gains a little due to play up points but since their opponents both have good win / loss records already the difference wont be enough to overcome that much. Not worth it to do the math on that.

 

[HBL Pirates fan_1990]

give me a few hours. It would take a bit. There is about 30+ calculations that have to be exact just to get the right numbers of what it is currently, then I have to calculate all of their opponents week 9 results but most probable results and then go into Bowling Green's points based upon minimum vs maximum differential. Its a ton of math.

Could you look at Class 4 District 4 if you have time and see if Hannibal can past either Holt and Warrenton after next weekend, I am no mathematician and please and thank you!!

Holt 48.46
Warrenton 47.66
Hannibal 46.73

 

[KHSDOGS]

my numbers are correct. you can not calculate district points at all correctly without every piece and all of the calculations exact. I double check my work after I run through them in excel.

How do you know the results of each of their opponents for the final game of the season? If one of the schools had their opponents win most of their final games and the other schools opponents lost most of their games that would effect their district points total. While the number is small, in your scenario it could make a difference.

 

[bman_turbo2000]

Could you look at Class 4 District 4 if you have time and see if Hannibal can past either Holt and Warrenton after next weekend, I am no mathematician and please and thank you!!

Holt 48.46
Warrenton 47.66
Hannibal 46.73

I am no mathematician either but I spent several hours last weekend getting an excel document to compute the numbers right so that I can predict a few outcomes.
I should start charging for this stuff.. It will take time. Mizzou game first! then data reviews.

 

[bman_turbo2000]

How do you know the results of each of their opponents for the final game of the season? If one of the schools had their opponents win most of their final games and the other schools opponents lost most of their games that would effect their district points total. While the number is small, in your scenario it could make a difference.

its actually not hard. conference opponents beat each other up. so that is +1 on win and +1 on loss. If a conference member is playing a non conference those make a difference. and non conference games make a difference, and play up points make a difference, and then differential makes a difference as well. When you compute it you can get a good idea what will or will not make a difference

 

[bman_turbo2000]

I am no mathematician either but I spent several hours last weekend getting an excel document to compute the numbers right so that I can predict a few outcomes.
I should start charging for this stuff.. It will take time. Mizzou game first! then data reviews.

Projected numbers for Hannibal:

Hannibal			Class	Wins	losses
	opponent
week 1	Helias		5​	8​	1​	170​
week 2	Jeff City		4​	5​	4​	140​
week 3	Troy		6​	6​	3​	150​
week 4	Fulton		4​	0​	9​	90​
week 5	Mexico		4​	2​	7​	110​
week 6	Kirksville		4​	4​	5​	130​
week 7	Moberly		3​	7​	2​	160​
week 8	Marshall		4​	2​	7​	110​
week 9	Battle		5​	3​	6​	120​
					81​	1080​	15​
		play up	40​				4.444444​
		Differential	84​			9.333333​

Projected numbers for Warrenton:

Warrenton
week 1	zumwalt south	5​	4​	5​	130​
week 2	Washington	5​	4​	5​	130​
week 3	Owensville	3​	3​	6​	120​
week 4	St Charles	4	1​	8​	100​	​
week 5	St Charles West	3​	3​	6​	120​
week 6	Union	4	2​	7​	110​	​
week 7	Winfield	3	3​	6​	120​	​
week 8	Orchard Farm	3​	5​	4​	140​
week 9	Mexico	4	2​	7​	110​	​
					81​	990​	13.75​
		play up	20​				2.222222​
		differential	100​			11.11111​

Side by Side:

	Hannibal		Warrenton
Points
A	18.88889​		20​		Win loss record
B	4.444444​		2.222222​		Playing Up Points
C	15​		13.75​		SOS Points
D	9.333333​		11.11111​		Differential
Total Points	47.66667​		47.08333​

Hannibal passes Warrenton on points.

I will do Holt's numbers and post them shortly

 

[bman_turbo2000]

Holt will hold their position. Their playup points are quite high.

Holt
week 1	Troy	6	6​	3​	150​	​
week 2	Liberty	5	6​	3​	150​	​
week 3	Washington	5​	3​	6​	120​
week 4	Zumwalt South	5​	4​	5​	130​
week 5	Zumwalt North	5​	5​	4​	140​
week 6	North Point	5​	6​	3​	150​
week 7	Zumwalt East	5​	1​	8​	100​
week 8	Jackson	6	8​	1​	170​	​
week 9	Timberland	4​	2​	7​	110​
					81​	1100​	15.27778​
		play up	100​				11.11111​
		differential	45​			5​

Holt
16.66667​		Win loss record
11.11111​		Playing Up Points
15.27778​		SOS Points
5​		Differential
48.05556​

 

[bman_turbo2000]

FYI: I am not taking anymore requests for data reviews.

 

[Veer2Eternity]

FYI: I am not taking anymore requests for data reviews.

id like to know if the webb city 3rd grade team b wins by more than 13 if they will have the bye over the bears?

 

[AC100]

I had a district from 1991 and was just curious how it would have turned out if done the current way. Thanks.

 

[bman_turbo2000]

id like to know if the webb city 3rd grade team b wins by more than 13 if they will have the bye over the bears?

 

[bman_turbo2000]

I had a district from 1991 and was just curious how it would have turned out if done the current way. Thanks.

you got jokes huh.
I am guessing you have zero clue how long it took to get the algorithms and equations correct to be able to compute the darn district points. It is not easy. There are people around the state that are quite curious this year on seeding because some of the points are that close. Beating a team by 1 point vs 10 or 13 points in the final week can be the difference between 1 seed and another.

Others wanted to know why a 7-1 team is light years ahead of another school that is 8-0 currently. Knowing how this works helps coaches plan out scheduling as well as other factors. Put the jokes aside man, many hours was put in to be able to have this asset document for use.

 

[AC100]

you got jokes huh.
I am guessing you have zero clue how long it took to get the algorithms and equations correct to be able to compute the darn district points. It is not easy. There are people around the state that are quite curious this year on seeding because some of the points are that close. Beating a team by 1 point vs 10 or 13 points in the final week can be the difference between 1 seed and another.

Others wanted to know why a 7-1 team is light years ahead of another school that is 8-0 currently. Knowing how this works helps coaches plan out scheduling as well as other factors. Put the jokes aside man, many hours was put in to be able to have this asset document for use.

Well...ok.

 

[Veer2Eternity]

you got jokes huh.
I am guessing you have zero clue how long it took to get the algorithms and equations correct to be able to compute the darn district points. It is not easy. There are people around the state that are quite curious this year on seeding because some of the points are that close. Beating a team by 1 point vs 10 or 13 points in the final week can be the difference between 1 seed and another.

Others wanted to know why a 7-1 team is light years ahead of another school that is 8-0 currently. Knowing how this works helps coaches plan out scheduling as well as other factors. Put the jokes aside man, many hours was put in to be able to have this asset document for use.

I think it's silly they give more credit for playing up. Just use a 'sagarin' type system and it will all wash out in the end.
Shouldn't have to play class 5 jabroniU to get a top seed in the playoffs when Class3Power01 is right down the road.

 

[bman_turbo2000]

I think it's silly they give more credit for playing up. Just use a 'sagarin' type system and it will all wash out in the end.
Shouldn't have to play class 5 jabroniU to get a top seed in the playoffs when Class3Power01 is right down the road.

When a team is in a conference of mostly Class 4 teams drops down to Class 3 then any other team that is in the district has to play at a high level just to overcome the free points the other school got just for being in a "higher" level conference.

 

[AC100]

id like to know if the webb city 3rd grade team b wins by more than 13 if they will have the bye over the bears?

Does Webb have 2 teams per grade or 3? Are they evenly split or is it basically an A and B?

 

[Veer2Eternity]

When a team is in a conference of mostly Class 4 teams drops down to Class 3 then any other team that is in the district has to play at a high level just to overcome the free points the other school got just for being in a "higher" level conference.

Yep. It's not realistic at all.

Which contest would be more telling of your relative strength as a team:
Class 2 Lamar or Class 5 Springfield Central?

 

[bman_turbo2000]

Yep. It's not realistic at all.

Which contest would be more telling of your relative strength as a team:
Class 2 Lamar or Class 5 Springfield Central?

you cant compare those 2. You have a Class 5 punching bag where BAD Class 3 teams are beating the crap out of you and the other consistently plays like a wanna be LN or Cardinal Ritter in Public school clothing beating teams at all levels. So there is nothing to compare

 

[Veer2Eternity]

you cant compare those 2. You have a Class 5 punching bag where BAD Class 3 teams are beating the crap out of you and the other consistently plays like a wanna be LN or Cardinal Ritter in Public school clothing beating teams at all levels. So there is nothing to compare

So why does marionville get 342342342352352343 points for scheduling that punching bag while teams that play tougher teams their own class dont get a boost?

Get rid of the class boost. It's not logical.

 

[bman_turbo2000]

So why does marionville get 342342342352352343 points for scheduling that punching bag while teams that play tougher teams their own class dont get a boost?

Get rid of the class boost. It's not logical.

rules are rules. that school is just an oddity compared to some. Lets say Marionville beat a real good Class 5 team. Should he not get awarded a boost for playing tougher teams from higher classes period. I think its fair. What is not fair is when a school is in a conference of completely higher class and their non conference is higher class and so they get a huge boost for free.
Your speaking to the choir and this choir has no say in it.

 

[bman_turbo2000]

So why does marionville get 342342342352352343 points for scheduling that punching bag while teams that play tougher teams their own class dont get a boost?

Get rid of the class boost. It's not logical.

btw, tougher teams in your class does give you a boost in SOS. the boost is not as strong and there is a reason from that:

Conference opponents: when they play conference games then in your SOS your going to see +1 on the loss for school A and +1 on the win column for school B. So it doesn't matter who gets it as it will give the same points to you. Non conference opponents give the most points. As you can play juggarnaughts for all non conference opponents, win, and that is a significant boost. AKA Blair Oaks, Maryville, and LN play each other.

Differential gives a decent boost as well. Beat all of your opponents by max points +13 and divide that by the number of games played.
its fair but of course people are going to complain by those loopholes.

 

[Veer2Eternity]

rules are rules. that school is just an oddity compared to some. Lets say Marionville beat a real good Class 5 team. Should he not get awarded a boost for playing tougher teams from higher classes period. I think its fair. What is not fair is when a school is in a conference of completely higher class and their non conference is higher class and so they get a huge boost for free.
Your speaking to the choir and this choir has no say in it.

Shouldn't matter the class. It will all work out by about week 8 if we used a sagarin type rating.

 

[Graphic Edge Guy]

What if Coach Nickerson just had Rifleman fall on the ball...or even take a safety against Walnut Heights??? Would AmPipe have gotten in???