Warts
- Thread starter vbsideout
- Start date
You mean like the four misplays in the first three innings tonight??? The "stats" show one error. Lynn survives his teammates and a shot off the head. He's a gamer Jack.
I really think that the Birds have to sign Lynn. He's been a solid 2 type pitcher and should be better down the road. Throw Weaver or one of their young studs in a package to get a stud hitter. You got to give up something if you want to attract a stud hitter.
He's not the same guy he once was. And he hasn't gotten better as the season's gone on. He's been super, super lucky on balls in play. The ERA is a mirage.
Lynn projects to be the sixth or seventh best SP the Cards have for 2018 once Reyes is back and Weaver is up. He needs to step it up a lot over the next few months to justify being resigned, especially if he wants a long term deal. You can buy 4th starter caliber 1.5 win SP pretty easily in the FA market.
Weaver isn't untouchable but you also will have to replace Wacha and Waino at some point. My gut is the Cards don't really want to trade him or Reyes unless the deal is amazing, especially when you consider how often SP get hurt.
OF is probably the most natural place for us to trade from overall. Possibly a ML infielder too.
I'm going to use 3 pitchers from 2015. You tell me who was better, based on being a winning pitcher
1) 17-9
2) 13-5
3)14-12
Who was the best pitcher?
When Lance Lynn pitches, the St Louis Cardinals frequently win. Its all just a coincidence.
His Fip and Fap demand he be let go. Winning games over a period of 5 years mean nothing.
I get that you want to trade every young player for proven major leaguers, but come on.
Carlos Martinez wasn't proven in 2013. He's our best SP now. No guy is "proven" in their first 50 innings. Both Reyes and Weaver had fine peripherals when they were up. Reyes was downright dominant. Weaver is immolating AAA this year. Both of these guys look more than ready to be in a rotation right now.
Reyes is as good a prospect as this team has had in the last generation. They aren't trading him unless the offer is insane, especially coming off TJ where his value is down a little. Movement is a little less important when you throw 100.
You're signing a guy for what you expect him to do next year, not for what he did for the last five years. Lynn is not the same player post TJ.
He's not the same guy he was in 2014. that's like saying you should pay $20 M for John Lackey next year because he was awesome that one year for us.
There's also a question of whether you need to invest a lot of money in a mid level starter when you already have 3 more years of Leake vs. dedicating that money to the lineup given the rest of the SP you have under contract for the next few years.
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Certainly it's correlated, but, yeah, it's not that meaningful on its own.
Lynn was also 12-11 in 2015 on a 100 win team even though he was good. W-L record has some pretty significant luck factor in it.
You'd also trade a major leaguer or two. The Cards have a lot of average guys. Do you really need all the outfielders and infielders that we have?
Tough not to be a winning pitcher when the offense scores 5 runs a game when you start (see Lynn, Lance in 2017.) Why is Wacha 9-4? Because the offense scores 5.6 runs a game when he's on the bump.
Lynn's not terrible, but he's not the borderline #2 he was from 2013-2015 right now. He's a #4 type starter now. Cards have enough SP talent to make keeping that kind of guy questionable when you could use the money better.
This is just proof as to how ridiculous the W/L stat is.
1) Colby Lewis with a near 5 ERA and mid 4 FIP. 6K/9 and 1.14 HR/9
2) Drew Hutchison with a near 6 ERA, mid 4 FIP, only threw 150 innings in 28 starts
3) Mad Max with a 2.7 ERA, 2.7 FIP, 229 innings. Could have won the Cy Young if not for Arrieta or Kershaw
And a bonus pitcher....
Corey Kluber was 9-16 and was one of the best pitchers in the league
This is his first year back from TJ. Somewhere in your mountainous volume of trivia you will find most pitchers are better the second year after TJ. Here is our point that you stat jack asses dont get. Lynn is a competitor. When he pitches the st louis cardinals win. We like him. We know exactly what we have in him. We have him now. We dont have to give up any players to acquire him.
Lets have Weaver, Reyes AND Lynn in our rotation.
It's a nice problem to have a surplus of quality pitching. Martinez is a stud in the making. Many people say he needs to learn to "pitch", I think he just needs to go out there and throw whatever Yadi throws down. Martinez thinks too much and needs to just throw. Reyes could very well be our next set up or closer if Rosie falters or gets traded in the offseason. Rosie looks like the really good Rosie so I say we keep him because when right he is a top level reliever at a good cost. Pitching Is in a solid place for the present and future. If Fowler keeps hitting for power like this, I say move him to a corner outfield spot and bring up Bader or Sierra to patrol center. Grichuk, Piscotty, Diaz and a pitching prospect need put on the block for a defensive SS and move Dejong over to 3rd or super sub. Simmons from LA would fit the bill!!
Moving DeJong to 3rd is something that's crossed my mind a few time too but they can't do it now. That should probably happen next year if he's still on this team.
I like this. A lot. CMart/Lynn/Reyes/Leake/Weaver/Waino/Wacha. Two to the pen if all healthy (prefer that be Waino and Wacha). Flaherty has some place too. Just can't ever have too much pitching, and some of these guys could prove to be valuable in late innings. 2017 Birds have held on for no other reason than quality SP. And now the offense is just exploding. With a halfway decent pen and a good defensive SS, this formula is spot on.
Held on for an ugly win and the Cubbies are down 3 in the 7th. This team with all of it's issues could be tied for 1st place tonight. Did anybody else wonder why there was no urgency on Carp's part to pick up the ball he dropped? I think he had the ball in his grip but the replay didn't seem to think so. If he had just been a split second quicker to grab it that inning wouldn't have been quite so 'interesting.'
Thats the third double play ball this week that Wong has either bobbled or stumbled costing us the DP. But he gets no error and I bet the almighty metrics dont take this into consideration with regard to Wongs defense and the pitchers having to overcome an unnecessary obstacle.
He recovered from the stumble and had what should have been an easy out at 1st if Carp hadn't dropped the ball, OR if he had just picked it up instead of looking at his glove. 2 outs and a runner on 2nd makes that situation much less stressful.
Def Val has him as the 29th out of 40 for 2nd base with 250 AB
Def WAR has him 22nd out of 27 for 500 innings played at 2nd.
Negative DRS, USR, UZR150
So yea, metrics say he sucks
I'm guessing you have forgotten the 3 DP's they had last night to keep Waino in a game he should never have started. He admitted he felt the issue above his elbow while he was warming up. His slow motion pitching motion and REALLY slow pitches was so bad it kept the hitters off balance just enough to keep them from scorching him last night.
Looks like the Birds will be tied for 1st place, Cubs down by 6 in the 8th.I'm guessing you have forgotten the 3 DP's they had last night to keep Waino in a game he should never have started. He admitted he felt the issue above his elbow while he was warming up. His slow motion pitching motion and REALLY slow pitches was so bad it kept the hitters off balance just enough to keep them from scorching him last night.
Surely the Cubs will wake up but they have opened a door that looked like it was slammed shut 10 days ago. I sure didn't see an 8 game winning streak coming for the Birds or the Cubs losing 7 out of 10. Could make the last month and a half of this a lot more fun to watch.
It is almost two years now. He got hurt in 2015. He has not gotten better as the season has gone on. Some guys end up not being the same.
Gonna be tough to do that when you have Martinez Waino and Leake under contract plus Wacha is arbitration. Can't start seven guys. Given the long term control of Martinez leake Reyes and weaver the cards don't really need to lock in another fourth starter at 10 percent of the payroll.
This wins thing is myopic and bad roster construction
I don't like it when you realize you have to give him 3-4 years. Can't dedicate 20 percent of your payroll to leake and Lynn. You already have the ok guy who eats 200 innings year in and year out
You can always go buy a lance Lynn on the FA market if you need one.
Defense stats can move a lot year to year. Probably should use a 2-3 average for a guy with his experience
You should read about the metrics before posting. Converting plays is a huge factor in how they are calculated.
I dont care about the metrics. I can simply watch the game and tell you while wongs range is decent and he can make some flashy plays his inability to make routine plays is a killer. Until recently he has been just horrible about not tagging runners, especially not using a swipe tag when appropriate. He has shown improvement in that area. Metric smetrics.
Why does he stand BEHIND 2nd base when a runner is stealing? Get in front of the base, get the throw quicker and get the tag on him.
