From Tigerboard: Great post.
This long - but most of it is player's names.
I saw a story the other day that had tracked all the 5-stars since 2008
-- the author documented all the players that had completed eligibility
from the '08, '09 and '10 classes. Of those 5-stars, 50% were drafted. I
thought that was shockingly low.
But it made me think about 5-stars and 4-stars, i.e. the real "difference makes" per the fanboard experts.
I'm going to make your eyes and head hurt with numbers here but bear with me.
My final summary will be that MU does a very good job identifying which
Missouri 4-star and 5-star players are going to be good college players
-- and are almost uncanny in their ability to "miss" on 4-star Missouri
players that end up being busts.
Critics have scoffed before at my contention that sometimes you offer a
kid out of political necessity and then, via your recruiting, you make
it clear that the kid isn't a priority. A few quick examples would be
Chase Rome, Will Compton, Brandon Bourbon. All were kids that MU offered
and then saw commit elsewhere "over" MU - but all were kids that MU was
fine seeing not accept the offer.
Other "misses" were true misses - kids MU recruited heavily but
ultimately were spurned - Clayborne, LaMark Brown, Wingo, for example.
But there is this: IF all 4-stars are equal, then the rate of college
success for Missouri 4-stars SHOULD be very close to the same for both
the 4-stars that commit to MU and the 4-stars that don't.
In other words, the "hit rate" on 4-stars should be the same whether you sign with MU or your don't.
But the hit rate isn't even close, as you will see should you choose to read on.
The fact is, Missouri 4-stars that sign at MU "hit" at a rate almost
4-times that of in-state 4-stars that don't sign with MU. What is that?
Is it all player development? I doubt it.
Is it possible that the MU staff knows far, fAR, FAR more about in-state kids than does Rivals? Yeah, that's possible.
Now, if MU's staff knows something that Rivals doesn't about in-state
kids, is it possible that MU could know something about out-state kids
that Rivals doesn't know?
Very interesting question IMO.
For now, a look at all Missouri 4-star and 5-star players since 2003
(that's as far as I could go back with Rivals database without being a
member).
2003
MU 4-stars: D. Terrell and Luellen
Non-MU 4-stars: Will Paul (Michigan); Mauroney (Minnesota)
Big MU Miss: Mauroney
2004 (last year of expanded 4-stars)
MU 4-stars: Patton, Temple, Riggs, Humphrey, Van Alexander
Non-MU 4-stars: Brett Gallimore (Michigan - 0 career starts, didn't play SR year)
MU misses: none
2005
MU 4-stars: None
Non MU 4-stars: DJ Hord (ND); Brooks (NU)
MU misses: none
2006
MU 4-stars: Maclin
Non MU 4-stars: Freeman (kSU); Clayborne (Iowa)
Big MU Miss: Clayborne - wanted to go to MU, swayed away by "community"
in light of Damian Nash experience. Freeman wasn't coming to MU with
Chase Daniel on the roster and his dad getting a job with the Kansas
Republican Party.
2007
MU 4-stars: Keck
Non MU 4-stars: White (UGA); LeMark Brown (kSU); Gray (UGA)
MU misses: Brown - although MU wanted him badly - kSU told him he could play WR; MU told him his future was on Defense.
2008
MU 5-star: Gabbert
MU 4-stars: Jones
non MU 4-stars: Compton (NU); Ladner (CA)
MU misses: Compton (I'm being generous)
2009
MU 5-star: Richardson
Non MU 4-stars: Wingo (Ark); Scheelhaase (Ill); Ball (Wisky)
Big MU miss: Ball
2010
MU 4-Stars: Demien, Lucas, Ealy, T. Gabbert
non MU 4-Stars: Terry (kU); Millard (OU); Bourbon (kU); Rome (NU)
MU miss: Millard - although MU recruited Millard for DE - but you need kids like Millard to stay home.
2011
non MU 4-Star: D. Miller (kU)
MU misses: none.
2012
MU 5-star: DGB
MU 4-star: Boehm
Non MU 4-stars: Pipkin (Michigan); Neal (OU)
MU misses: none
2013
MU 4-star: Abbington
non MU 4-star: Elliot (tOSU); Ramirez (kSU)
Big MU miss: Elliot
2014
MU 4-star: Bauer
non MU 4-star: Wallace (Ark); Johnson (FSU); Peavey (Ark); Harrison (NU - went baseball)
MU miss: Johnson - although Johnson was clear as early as his sophomore year he was going out-of-state. We'll see on Wallace.
2015
MU 4-stars: Lock, Doherty
non MU 4-star: Ofodile
TBD 4-star: K. Davis
MU miss: we'll see.
Summary:
Since the 2002 recruiting season and as of the 2015 class, MU will be
either 21 or 22 of 49 (depends on Davis) for In-State Rivals 4-Stars and
2 for 2 on In-State Rivals 5-Stars. Prior to the 2015 Class, MU is 19
for 45.
That's less than HALF the state's 4-Stars! Fire Pinkel! Right? Well, maybe not .
Of the 31 4-Star Rivals Players that MU "missed" on prior to 2015, 7 are
Big Misses, ie very productive college players for their teams:
Maroney, Clayborne, Ball, Millard, Elliot, Johnson.
Note: only Millard was NOT a St. Louis area player. Ahem, St. Louis - we're looking at you again.
But regardless, if 7 of those 31 are Big Misses, that means 24 of the 31
MU "misses" weren't really "misses" at all. I don't mean they just
weren't college stars - they barely registered a blip on their college
teams.
Say that again: 24 of the 31 Missouri 4-Stars that MU "missed" on were significant busts. That's a 77% bust rate.
Turn it around: of the MU 4-star Signees, how many were "misses" on the
field? This is harsh and I don't like criticizing MU players but to be
fair: Patton, Humphrey, Keck, T. Gabbert, Demien - for whatever reason -
were never able to contribute on the field like we would have thought
coming out of high school. So, of the 19 Missouri 4-Stars that MU
signed, 5 were "misses" - add in the three 5-stars - and 5 of the 22 4/5
Stars were misses or 23%.
Now, if 4/5-star in-state players that MU doesn't sign are busting at a
77% clip, and 4/5-star in-state players that MU does sign are busting at
23% - that tells you something.
Either kids have a higher success rate when coming to MU (and should
therefore arguably choose the home school!!), or MU is just darn lucky
in the way they happen to sign the states 4-star and 5-star talent.
Or maybe, Pinkel and Staff are pretty good at identifying and signing the right in-state talent.
This long - but most of it is player's names.
I saw a story the other day that had tracked all the 5-stars since 2008
-- the author documented all the players that had completed eligibility
from the '08, '09 and '10 classes. Of those 5-stars, 50% were drafted. I
thought that was shockingly low.
But it made me think about 5-stars and 4-stars, i.e. the real "difference makes" per the fanboard experts.
I'm going to make your eyes and head hurt with numbers here but bear with me.
My final summary will be that MU does a very good job identifying which
Missouri 4-star and 5-star players are going to be good college players
-- and are almost uncanny in their ability to "miss" on 4-star Missouri
players that end up being busts.
Critics have scoffed before at my contention that sometimes you offer a
kid out of political necessity and then, via your recruiting, you make
it clear that the kid isn't a priority. A few quick examples would be
Chase Rome, Will Compton, Brandon Bourbon. All were kids that MU offered
and then saw commit elsewhere "over" MU - but all were kids that MU was
fine seeing not accept the offer.
Other "misses" were true misses - kids MU recruited heavily but
ultimately were spurned - Clayborne, LaMark Brown, Wingo, for example.
But there is this: IF all 4-stars are equal, then the rate of college
success for Missouri 4-stars SHOULD be very close to the same for both
the 4-stars that commit to MU and the 4-stars that don't.
In other words, the "hit rate" on 4-stars should be the same whether you sign with MU or your don't.
But the hit rate isn't even close, as you will see should you choose to read on.
The fact is, Missouri 4-stars that sign at MU "hit" at a rate almost
4-times that of in-state 4-stars that don't sign with MU. What is that?
Is it all player development? I doubt it.
Is it possible that the MU staff knows far, fAR, FAR more about in-state kids than does Rivals? Yeah, that's possible.
Now, if MU's staff knows something that Rivals doesn't about in-state
kids, is it possible that MU could know something about out-state kids
that Rivals doesn't know?
Very interesting question IMO.
For now, a look at all Missouri 4-star and 5-star players since 2003
(that's as far as I could go back with Rivals database without being a
member).
2003
MU 4-stars: D. Terrell and Luellen
Non-MU 4-stars: Will Paul (Michigan); Mauroney (Minnesota)
Big MU Miss: Mauroney
2004 (last year of expanded 4-stars)
MU 4-stars: Patton, Temple, Riggs, Humphrey, Van Alexander
Non-MU 4-stars: Brett Gallimore (Michigan - 0 career starts, didn't play SR year)
MU misses: none
2005
MU 4-stars: None
Non MU 4-stars: DJ Hord (ND); Brooks (NU)
MU misses: none
2006
MU 4-stars: Maclin
Non MU 4-stars: Freeman (kSU); Clayborne (Iowa)
Big MU Miss: Clayborne - wanted to go to MU, swayed away by "community"
in light of Damian Nash experience. Freeman wasn't coming to MU with
Chase Daniel on the roster and his dad getting a job with the Kansas
Republican Party.
2007
MU 4-stars: Keck
Non MU 4-stars: White (UGA); LeMark Brown (kSU); Gray (UGA)
MU misses: Brown - although MU wanted him badly - kSU told him he could play WR; MU told him his future was on Defense.
2008
MU 5-star: Gabbert
MU 4-stars: Jones
non MU 4-stars: Compton (NU); Ladner (CA)
MU misses: Compton (I'm being generous)
2009
MU 5-star: Richardson
Non MU 4-stars: Wingo (Ark); Scheelhaase (Ill); Ball (Wisky)
Big MU miss: Ball
2010
MU 4-Stars: Demien, Lucas, Ealy, T. Gabbert
non MU 4-Stars: Terry (kU); Millard (OU); Bourbon (kU); Rome (NU)
MU miss: Millard - although MU recruited Millard for DE - but you need kids like Millard to stay home.
2011
non MU 4-Star: D. Miller (kU)
MU misses: none.
2012
MU 5-star: DGB
MU 4-star: Boehm
Non MU 4-stars: Pipkin (Michigan); Neal (OU)
MU misses: none
2013
MU 4-star: Abbington
non MU 4-star: Elliot (tOSU); Ramirez (kSU)
Big MU miss: Elliot
2014
MU 4-star: Bauer
non MU 4-star: Wallace (Ark); Johnson (FSU); Peavey (Ark); Harrison (NU - went baseball)
MU miss: Johnson - although Johnson was clear as early as his sophomore year he was going out-of-state. We'll see on Wallace.
2015
MU 4-stars: Lock, Doherty
non MU 4-star: Ofodile
TBD 4-star: K. Davis
MU miss: we'll see.
Summary:
Since the 2002 recruiting season and as of the 2015 class, MU will be
either 21 or 22 of 49 (depends on Davis) for In-State Rivals 4-Stars and
2 for 2 on In-State Rivals 5-Stars. Prior to the 2015 Class, MU is 19
for 45.
That's less than HALF the state's 4-Stars! Fire Pinkel! Right? Well, maybe not .
Of the 31 4-Star Rivals Players that MU "missed" on prior to 2015, 7 are
Big Misses, ie very productive college players for their teams:
Maroney, Clayborne, Ball, Millard, Elliot, Johnson.
Note: only Millard was NOT a St. Louis area player. Ahem, St. Louis - we're looking at you again.
But regardless, if 7 of those 31 are Big Misses, that means 24 of the 31
MU "misses" weren't really "misses" at all. I don't mean they just
weren't college stars - they barely registered a blip on their college
teams.
Say that again: 24 of the 31 Missouri 4-Stars that MU "missed" on were significant busts. That's a 77% bust rate.
Turn it around: of the MU 4-star Signees, how many were "misses" on the
field? This is harsh and I don't like criticizing MU players but to be
fair: Patton, Humphrey, Keck, T. Gabbert, Demien - for whatever reason -
were never able to contribute on the field like we would have thought
coming out of high school. So, of the 19 Missouri 4-Stars that MU
signed, 5 were "misses" - add in the three 5-stars - and 5 of the 22 4/5
Stars were misses or 23%.
Now, if 4/5-star in-state players that MU doesn't sign are busting at a
77% clip, and 4/5-star in-state players that MU does sign are busting at
23% - that tells you something.
Either kids have a higher success rate when coming to MU (and should
therefore arguably choose the home school!!), or MU is just darn lucky
in the way they happen to sign the states 4-star and 5-star talent.
Or maybe, Pinkel and Staff are pretty good at identifying and signing the right in-state talent.
