Predictions

[millerbleach]

I'm just an unsophisticated redneck conservative so I need to know what you educated experts think.
How many US fatalities from Covid-19 when it is all done?

I'll give my best guess with reasoning.
7000.
Higher than my head says but we have a healthcare system that allowed us to develop a large elderly population unlike some of these social healthcare countries that consider elderly as dispensable.

 

[Neutron Monster]

I'm just an unsophisticated redneck conservative so I need to know what you educated experts think.
How many US fatalities from Covid-19 when it is all done?

I'll give my best guess with reasoning.
7000.
Higher than my head says but we have a healthcare system that allowed us to develop a large elderly population unlike some of these social healthcare countries that consider elderly as dispensable.

I'll take the over given the spread to date. Sadly. I don't think it's particularly difficult to take the over, either. There are going to be millions of cases in the US, and at even a 1% death rate, that puts you in the five figures. You have to consider the massive problems we have had with undertesting...you can't assume that the death total reported to date is anything other than an undercount.

I think we can avoid being Spain or Italy, but I don't see how we can look at Europe and think that we're going to avoid seeing hundreds of deaths a day in the very near future.

Personally, I'd be interested in seeing a CDC model on this, but when see something like Dr. Gottlieb's comments to day, where he talks about a leak in late April...the worst is yet to come.

 

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

I'll take the over given the spread to date. Sadly. I don't think it's particularly difficult to take the over, either. There are going to be millions of cases in the US, and at even a 1% death rate, that puts you in the five figures. You have to consider the massive problems we have had with undertesting...you can't assume that the death total reported to date is anything other than an undercount.

I think we can avoid being Spain or Italy, but I don't see how we can look at Europe and think that we're going to avoid seeing hundreds of deaths a day in the very near future.

Personally, I'd be interested in seeing a CDC model on this, but when see something like Dr. Gottlieb's comments to day, where he talks about a leak in late April...the worst is yet to come.

I hope I’m wrong but the rate the fatalities are growing we could be at 500+ a day by next weekend and could be over 1000 a day in 2 weeks. Now I do think the social distancing efforts will probably curb some of that but I’ll be surprised if the number isn’t over 20,000 when it is all done. We should have a good idea in about a week how the trend is going.

 

[MGHS]

15-25 thousand in this wave....Come Oct. and the 2nd wave I'd say another 2-10 thousand.

 

[millerbleach]

I'll take the over given the spread to date. Sadly. I don't think it's particularly difficult to take the over, either. There are going to be millions of cases in the US, and at even a 1% death rate, that puts you in the five figures. You have to consider the massive problems we have had with undertesting...you can't assume that the death total reported to date is anything other than an undercount.

I appreciate you taking the "over" but that is not exactly an estimate. At least you went on record with something. Would 5 figures be worth shutting down the country? It is a lot of deaths but how many of those wouldn't have made it through the year already? All I have said is the "crisis" doesn't warrant the pandemonium. We will end up with less deaths than the Swine Flu probably and we did virtually nothing about it.

Anyone remember the forecasts of tens of thousands dying in Katrina?

 

[Neutron Monster]

I appreciate you taking the "over" but that is not exactly an estimate. At least you went on record with something. Would 5 figures be worth shutting down the country? It is a lot of deaths but how many of those wouldn't have made it through the year already? All I have said is the "crisis" doesn't warrant the pandemonium. We will end up with less deaths than the Swine Flu probably and we did virtually nothing about it.

Anyone remember the forecasts of tens of thousands dying in Katrina?

You're discussing two different things between your OP and now:

- What will the death toll be?
- What would it be if we didn't shut things down?

Those are two very different questions.

There's also a separate question that your economic question ignores, which is how would people's behavior have evolved even if the government didn't shut things down? Most large companies killed off travel and conventions before the States locked things down. If you were really in a situation where going in public was life threatening...business as usual was over anyway. The only question was would it happen in two weeks or would it happen now via government mandate to try to make it less painful.

A lot of this economic shutdown would be happening by personal choice as is. I wouldn't be sitting down in a restaurant right now if they were open. I wouldn't be going to sporting events or on a plane. My office was closed before the County suggested we quarantine in place. Yes, the amount of distancing is more extreme than it would have been, but the downtown in restaurants, travel, events, etc. would still be brutal and in need of strong action.

 

[millerbleach]

You're discussing two different things between your OP and now:

- What will the death toll be?
- What would it be if we didn't shut things down?

Those are two very different questions.

There's also a separate question that your economic question ignores, which is how would people's behavior have evolved even if the government didn't shut things down? Most large companies killed off travel and conventions before the States locked things down. If you were really in a situation where going in public was life threatening...business as usual was over anyway. The only question was would it happen in two weeks or would it happen now via government mandate to try to make it less painful.

A lot of this economic shutdown would be happening by personal choice as is. I wouldn't be sitting down in a restaurant right now if they were open. I wouldn't be going to sporting events or on a plane. My office was closed before the County suggested we quarantine in place. Yes, the amount of distancing is more extreme than it would have been, but the downtown in restaurants, travel, events, etc. would still be brutal and in need of strong action.

There wasn't ANY of this with the Swine Flu that will end up being as/more deadly than this. The press made this monster at the urging of libs!
The question remains, how many lives saved would warrant the utter destruction of daily life and the economy? What is the cost in personal fear and hoarding?

 

[Neutron Monster]

A quick look at Italy tells you that this sucker can kill and devastate in a way the swine flu never did. It’s not a good comparison

 

[millerbleach]

A quick look at Italy tells you that this sucker can kill and devastate in a way the swine flu never did. It’s not a good comparison

The numbers can't lie.....unless the experts are.

 

[Draftpik]

The numbers can't lie.....unless the experts are.

Yes and previous outbreaks, a shut down wasn't even on the table. Not even close.

 

[Neutron Monster]

The numbers can't lie.....unless the experts are.

If your position is the data are made up there’s no point in discussing it. Go take a walk in the ICU and tell me how that works out.

 

[Neutron Monster]

Yes and previous outbreaks, a shut down wasn't even on the table. Not even close.

That seems like something worth some personal introspection. Why are trump’s medical advisors and original FDA and homeland security leaders advocating for this? Hmm. The people who know something consider this different than anything we’ve seen in our lifetimes. Maybe you should pay attention to them!

when Tom bossert and Scott gottlieb are shredding the idea of reopening the country next week, maybe we should read what they are saying and think about it.

 

[millerbleach]

If your position is the data are made up there’s no point in discussing it. Go take a walk in the ICU and tell me how that works out.

Not my position. I am the one using the numbers. The numbers don't warrant the reaction. You are the one using the "what if" scenarios.

 

[Draftpik]

That seems like something worth some personal introspection. Why are trump’s medical advisors and original FDA and homeland security leaders advocating for this? Hmm. The people who know something consider this different than anything we’ve seen in our lifetimes. Maybe you should pay attention to them!

when Tom bossert and Scott gottlieb are shredding the idea of reopening the country next week, maybe we should read what they are saying and think about it.

If you look at the evidence of what's in stimulus bill, you must clearly admit Democrats are not taking this seriously.

 

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

If you look at the evidence of what's in stimulus bill, you must clearly admit Democrats are not taking this seriously.

It’s is partially that but more accurately they see it as an opportunity and they are trying to exploit it to get a bunch of agenda items passed.

If it isn’t going to stimulate the economy and help people that most need it than it is probably better that nothing gets passed.

 

[Neutron Monster]

It’s is partially that but more accurately they see it as an opportunity and they are trying to exploit it to get a bunch of agenda items passed.

If it isn’t going to stimulate the economy and help people that most need it than it is probably better that nothing gets passed.

I'd rather have a meh bill than no bill. We need something.

 

[Neutron Monster]

Not my position. I am the one using the numbers. The numbers don't warrant the reaction. You are the one using the "what if" scenarios.

You're using numbers badly is the problem. Our policy makers have to make decisions on projections, not on raw historical case counts.

 

[millerbleach]

You're using numbers badly is the problem. Our policy makers have to make decisions on projections, not on raw historical case counts.

What about the numbers am I using wrong? You are far more likely to be killed in a car wreck this year than by the virus,
About one in ten thousand Italians will die from this and the U S is much better equipped to handle it.

 

[3Rfan]

If you look at the evidence of what's in stimulus bill, you must clearly admit Democrats are not taking this seriously.

This is true for sure but don't forget McConnell/pubs don't want the provision dems have in there to protect us from the big corps doing the same things they did in the '08 bailouts. I believe dems call it creating a slush fund for big business.

 

[Draftpik]

This is true for sure but don't forget McConnell/pubs don't want the provision dems have in there to protect us from the big corps doing the same things they did in the '08 bailouts. I believe dems call it creating a slush fund for big business.

Its not a bailout. You love windmills while people suffocate? Thanks Nancy

 

[3Rfan]

Its not a bailout. You love windmills while people suffocate? Thanks Nancy

I didn't say it is, I said we don't want big companies buying back stocks with the money they get. Although if it was a 'bailout' in '08 I don't know why it isn't that in '20, just happening for different reasons.