Wash, rinse, repeat here we go again: This is the SIXTH straight year these two have played twice but just the second since the new Sheriff arrived in KTown. Last year was close for about one half of the first quarter then Smithville completely dominated from then on, something I don't nearly expect this go around.
FACTORS FAVORING SMITHVILLE:
1) Since the Warriors joined the Suburban Blue in 2018 they have been to FOUR final fours and won ONE championship two years ago PLUS have not been eliminated by a public school any of those runs. In other words this is now one of Missouri's ELITE HSFB programs and that will be extremely difficult for Kearney to overcome Friday.
2) Home field advantage. As most if not all of you know I travel all around looking for the best games of each week. Among my list of most difficult environments for a visitor to come in and win THIS ONE ranks at or very near the top in the entire NWMO region. Again Smithville's last loss at home to a public school was their nemesis (a subject for another time) Platte County when they collapsed in the second half October 2018 after being in full control the first one. Granted they did not play some years but Kearney has not been close to beating Smithville any visit since 2011.
3) HC Ambroson probably has assembled the best staff in the KC Metro (a major, major mouthful) and their experience will pay off in key moments in any game.
4) The confidence factor. Smithville is 10-1 vs. Kearney since the aforementioned joining the Sub Blue. I sincerely doubt anyone over that way believes that trend will change any time soon.
FACTORS FAVORING KEARNEY:
1) Senior leadership. Kearney has lots and lots of it and last year's experience should have left a very bitter taste in their mouths. Don't be deceived by the Week 3 result it was tainted by about as significant a rash of key injuries as you will see in this sport. Pay particular attention to RB #6 Emmons who is the definition of a gamer/workhorse and could carry this team onward and upward Friday.
2) The blowout rematch factor. I warn, warn and warn about this every season and many times it verifies. Even the elite teams tend to drop just a smidge when rematching a team they either blew away the season prior or earlier in the same one. Ambroson won't be able to sell the "us vs. the World underdog" narrative this time around.
3) All around athleticism. This program is definitely on the upswing and not just at the aforementioned Senior level. The RB corps is deep and talented so are the D Linemen and LBs and everyone knows about their prowess in other sports (please no Joey comments, thanks!).
So given all those items what are the concerns I've seen this year you ask? Here are a couple key ones:
Smithville is not playing nearly as well down the stretch in "overmatch" games as the past three years. I am particularly concerned about their ability to stop the run and overall defensive speed. This showed itself vs. Grandview in particular, a result I still have trouble wrapping my head around.
Kearney has shown tendencies to start slow even against overmatched teams (giving up big plays and first scores vs. Ruskin, Grandview and Ray South all games I attended in person) plus seems to have discipline/pen issues time and again. Much as everyone can be correct saying those will go away when the chips are all down I tend to believe your bad habits magnify in big games instead.
OVERALL SYNOPSIS: My expectations going into this game are polar opposite of last year when I all but knew Kearney had awakened the green monster in the regular season and they would have to match an extreme energy level to have a chance. This Friday I expect these two to face off more at eye level in a back and forth game that could actually resemble, score wise, the Smithville-Platte County shootout from which the Warriors were smarting which also contributed to the Week 3 blowout. As posted earlier my heart says Kearney breaks through but my head says Smithvillle guts this one out and moves on let's say 37-34.
Whatever happens GOOD LUCK to both fine teams, staffs and communities! It should be lots and lots of fun on a perfect evening for HSFB!
FACTORS FAVORING SMITHVILLE:
1) Since the Warriors joined the Suburban Blue in 2018 they have been to FOUR final fours and won ONE championship two years ago PLUS have not been eliminated by a public school any of those runs. In other words this is now one of Missouri's ELITE HSFB programs and that will be extremely difficult for Kearney to overcome Friday.
2) Home field advantage. As most if not all of you know I travel all around looking for the best games of each week. Among my list of most difficult environments for a visitor to come in and win THIS ONE ranks at or very near the top in the entire NWMO region. Again Smithville's last loss at home to a public school was their nemesis (a subject for another time) Platte County when they collapsed in the second half October 2018 after being in full control the first one. Granted they did not play some years but Kearney has not been close to beating Smithville any visit since 2011.
3) HC Ambroson probably has assembled the best staff in the KC Metro (a major, major mouthful) and their experience will pay off in key moments in any game.
4) The confidence factor. Smithville is 10-1 vs. Kearney since the aforementioned joining the Sub Blue. I sincerely doubt anyone over that way believes that trend will change any time soon.
FACTORS FAVORING KEARNEY:
1) Senior leadership. Kearney has lots and lots of it and last year's experience should have left a very bitter taste in their mouths. Don't be deceived by the Week 3 result it was tainted by about as significant a rash of key injuries as you will see in this sport. Pay particular attention to RB #6 Emmons who is the definition of a gamer/workhorse and could carry this team onward and upward Friday.
2) The blowout rematch factor. I warn, warn and warn about this every season and many times it verifies. Even the elite teams tend to drop just a smidge when rematching a team they either blew away the season prior or earlier in the same one. Ambroson won't be able to sell the "us vs. the World underdog" narrative this time around.
3) All around athleticism. This program is definitely on the upswing and not just at the aforementioned Senior level. The RB corps is deep and talented so are the D Linemen and LBs and everyone knows about their prowess in other sports (please no Joey comments, thanks!).
So given all those items what are the concerns I've seen this year you ask? Here are a couple key ones:
Smithville is not playing nearly as well down the stretch in "overmatch" games as the past three years. I am particularly concerned about their ability to stop the run and overall defensive speed. This showed itself vs. Grandview in particular, a result I still have trouble wrapping my head around.
Kearney has shown tendencies to start slow even against overmatched teams (giving up big plays and first scores vs. Ruskin, Grandview and Ray South all games I attended in person) plus seems to have discipline/pen issues time and again. Much as everyone can be correct saying those will go away when the chips are all down I tend to believe your bad habits magnify in big games instead.
OVERALL SYNOPSIS: My expectations going into this game are polar opposite of last year when I all but knew Kearney had awakened the green monster in the regular season and they would have to match an extreme energy level to have a chance. This Friday I expect these two to face off more at eye level in a back and forth game that could actually resemble, score wise, the Smithville-Platte County shootout from which the Warriors were smarting which also contributed to the Week 3 blowout. As posted earlier my heart says Kearney breaks through but my head says Smithvillle guts this one out and moves on let's say 37-34.
Whatever happens GOOD LUCK to both fine teams, staffs and communities! It should be lots and lots of fun on a perfect evening for HSFB!
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