Jeb

[Neutron Monster]

https://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/poll-jeb-falls-4_1039884.html

With polls like these, the money in the R party is going to fall in line behind Rubio as the savior of the party from Trump/Carson/Cruz

 

[Duck_walk]

I had hoped this would happen to both Bush and Clinton. Clinton is still in the drivers seat, but the fund raising success of Sanders sends a clear message that most people in this country don't want Hillary either.

I voted twice for Bill Clinton but watching him on CNN really creeps me out. They need to be sent out to pasture.

 

[wcowherd]

Im fine with that. The more I watch Rubio the more I think he's an empty suit.

 

[Kenny56]

Im fine with that. The more I watch Rubio the more I think he's an empty suit.

And Hillary?

 

[wcowherd]

I think she's pretty intelligent.

 

[millerbleach]

You would.

 

[millerbleach]

https://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/poll-jeb-falls-4_1039884.html

With polls like these, the money in the R party is going to fall in line behind Rubio as the savior of the party from Trump/Carson/Cruz

I have always been a Rubio supporter. Even when everyone said he was for amnesty. I never heard him say anything that didn't strongly insist on securing the boarder first. When the group Rubio was associated with wouldn't agree to securing the boarder as the first step, he pulled out. Marco really thought lending himself to the process could bring about a solution to the problem.
It must pain you to have been so wrong about Bush, and the outsiders.

 

[The Rumor]

I have always been a Rubio supporter. Even when everyone said he was for amnesty. I never heard him say anything that didn't strongly insist on securing the boarder first. When the group Rubio was associated with wouldn't agree to securing the boarder as the first step, he pulled out. Marco really thought lending himself to the process could bring about a solution to the problem.
It must pain you to have been so wrong about Bush, and the outsiders.

That is incredible revisionist history. Everything in that post is made up. Rubio voted for the bill that passed the senate. The sole reason he opposes it now is because he is running in the primary and he needs to sound tougher.

Not to mention border security is the most overplayed issue in the entire primary - the net rate of illegal immigration from Latin America is zero, partly because we have thrown a ton of money into border security already. At this point, spending more money at the border is a waste of money. Border security is the get tough on crime issue of the 2010s - politicians are in a race to support as much legislation as his humanly possible whether or not it makes sense. A decade from now we are going to be asking why we are wasting so much money on the border.

How was I wrong about bush? Please define what I said. I've never maintained he was the inevitable nominee, just that the establishment will eventually back a traditional candidate that is the winner. I still think that.

 

[The Rumor]

I had hoped this would happen to both Bush and Clinton. Clinton is still in the drivers seat, but the fund raising success of Sanders sends a clear message that most people in this country don't want Hillary either.

I voted twice for Bill Clinton but watching him on CNN really creeps me out. They need to be sent out to pasture.

Hillary still raised more money than him, you know that right?

 

[Duck_walk]

Hillary still raised more money than him, you know that right?

Yes. But she was the overwhelming favorite against a man only people like me knew about 10 months ago. For the fundraising to be that close shows a lot of Dems don't want her.

 

[The Rumor]

Yes. But she was the overwhelming favorite against a man only people like me knew about 10 months ago. For the fundraising to be that close shows a lot of Dems don't want her.

It's the same reason why Carson raised a lot of money - he has a base. It's not a sign he belongs as the nominee of a party.

 

[Duck_walk]

It's the same reason why Carson raised a lot of money - he has a base. It's not a sign he belongs as the nominee of a party.

That not my point. They don't want Sanders. My point is, they might settle for Hillary, but they don't really want her.

 

[millerbleach]

How was I wrong about bush? Please define what I said. I've never maintained he was the inevitable nominee, just that the establishment will eventually back a traditional candidate that is the winner. I still think that.

The mo sports history doesn't go that far back but you started with him then switched to Paul and have now gone to Marco (doesn't bode well for Marco). This quote from you gives some insight though.

I was more convinced of that 3 months ago than I am now. I think he has a bigger weakness than I expected.
12 Neutron Monster, Jun 5, 2015

 

[The Rumor]

lol no I have never ever ever claimed Rand Paul was going to win the nomination. I claimed he is trying to be more electable than his dad. It turns out he needed to keep a more narrow focus on his base like his dad did.

I never claimed Jeb was inevitable either. I have never claimed ANY R is inevitable this round. I pointed out (correctly) that Jeb would raise a ton of money and that he would be the initial choice of the establishment leaders. That turned out to be true. But, he has been unable to capitalize on that.

I will say I have been surprised how poorly he is doing. He has a base out there that isn't supporting him. He has run an awful campaign though. I've been shocked at how poorly he has done on the stump. I'm shocked he wasn't ready to answer the most obvious question about Iraq. Jeb seems very rusty - an example of someone who has been off the campaign trail for too long and someone who surrounded themselves with a team that is too old.

I have been on record for a long time saying Marco is the most electable R in a general election. I think that is still true.

 

[The Rumor]

That not my point. They don't want Sanders. My point is, they might settle for Hillary, but they don't really want her.

Hillary has never been a candidate who inspired love and devotion. She's more dick Nixon than JFK

 

[millerbleach]

lol no I have never ever ever claimed Rand Paul was going to win the nomination. I claimed he is trying to be more electable than his dad. It turns out he needed to keep a more narrow focus on his base like his dad did.

Wrong. You not only said you thought he would win the nomination, you started a thread to say so. Here's your OP in that thread:

"Take this very seriously. Not only does Rand have the monetary and vote backing of the libertarian right, he's making in roads with at least part of the establishment.

If I had to bet today, I would bet he is the Republican nominee. He's going to have funds, he's got 20%+ of the electorate who voted for his dad in the bag, and he's a sound bite machine".

You were equally strong about Bush being the nominee previously.

 

[Neutron Monster]

I was a lot higher on Rand before than I am now. I thought he had a real chance if he could keep his base lined up in Iowa and NH. It turns out they disappeared.

I have never claimed anyone had a real lock on the R nom, though. I still think it's pretty open.

 

[millerbleach]

It has always been "pretty open" but you keep finding new "establishment" horses to try to push out front. If it has to be an insider, Marco is one I can support. I still think it will not be an insider though. Once the outsider votes consolidate around one guy, that will be a solid block to overcome.

 

[Neutron Monster]

To the best of my knowledge, a non-establishment candidate has never led the online betting lines for the 2016 R nom, nor have the Rs nominated an insurgent candidate in a long time.

Odds are still reasonably strong that an establishment R ends up with the nom.