Flu stats...Just fyi... (don't shoot the messenger)

[you_dont_know_me]

in the 2017-18 flu season, America AVERAGED 4,000 deaths per week (16k/month) for the 4 main months of flu season. Dec.-March. The flu. Approximately 61,000 deaths total and over 45 Million infections. No ticker, no alarm sounded. Just saying.

Didn't make a headline. Wasn't a live ticker for us.

If we had a live ticker for heart disease deaths on every major news outlet...how would that affect us?

I'm NOT saying this isn't something to pay attention to. I just think we don't know as much as we think we do.

Be wise, calm, rational and lets see where the data takes us.

Most of the people being tested have severe cases, we don't really know when the virus arrived, and we have NO idea how many people are infected.

This is 100 minutes long, but you can get the gist in the first 30 minutes or so. The rest is pretty compelling too I thought. It was done about 5 days ago. Just something to think about.

https://youtu.be/uOSYOZy_XHk

 

[kaskaskiakid]

It is starting to look like we are not going to see tens of thousands of deaths. But the problem now is hospital space and ventilators.

 

[you_dont_know_me]

It appears the ventilator problem is being addressed. The guy in that video uses the illustration that the elephant flees the cat because it is annoying, causing the elephant to jump off a cliff. I sure hope that’s not what we are doing.

My hope: people see at the end of this we were all fools for buying into hysteria. Doesn’t mean that we will, or that the virus is as innocent as I want it to be.

 

[millerbleach]

My hope: people see at the end of this we were all fools for buying into hysteria. Doesn’t mean that we will, or that the virus is as innocent as I want it to be.

The virus is NOT innocent! It is bad but the response is simply overblown. There will be thousands of deaths that no one wants. We simply can't prevent the spread of a virus. There are measures that should be taken to save some elderly exposure and all the other measures will SLOW the spread but not stop it. What is the value of that slowing? What is the cost of that slowing?

 

[you_dont_know_me]

The virus is NOT innocent! It is bad but the response is simply overblown. There will be thousands of deaths that no one wants. We simply can't prevent the spread of a virus. There are measures that should be taken to save some elderly exposure and all the other measures will SLOW the spread but not stop it. What is the value of that slowing? What is the cost of that slowing?

Innocent was a poor choice of word on my part. It will kill and harm but no more than the flu and quite possibly a lot less!

 

[Draftpik]

Innocent was a poor choice of word on my part. It will kill and harm but no more than the flu and quite possibly a lot less!

We still don't know. Quite possible is the key. So is I don't know.

 

[millerbleach]

We still don't know. Quite possible is the key. So is I don't know.

We see no evidence it will be worse. Likely similar at best. Can't see ANY evidence it will reach Swine Flu numbers of 60 million U S.
The point wasn't that Covid isn't bad! The point was.....where did the hysteria come from?

 

[you_dont_know_me]

Check this article headline out...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/tv/news/c...sitive-for-coronavirus/ar-BB11Sun0?li=BBnbfcL

never mind she had been battling cancer and had been on medical leave for over a month.

Spin, Twist, Spin.

 

[kaskaskiakid]

I read Dr Fauci said today the worst is yet to come. Our biggest cities seem to be getting hit hard right now. I'm skeptical like many but MO cases doubled this weekend, maybe because more tests findings are coming in. I think MO is better off right now than many places.

 

[Draftpik]

I read Dr Fauci said today the worst is yet to come. Our biggest cities seem to be getting hit hard right now. I'm skeptical like many but MO cases doubled this weekend, maybe because more tests findings are coming in. I think MO is better off right now than many places.

Do you think the economy will be hurt by a pandemic?

 

[kaskaskiakid]

yes

 

[Neutron Monster]

A lot of terrible score board reading and backwards thinking in this thread.

1. The US spends billions on substantial flu mitigation every year. Get your shots, people!

2. A higher death year for the flu is cherry picked here, the normal year isn't 60k.

3. https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...worsened-but-the-trajectory-is-still-unclear/ We should listen to experts, not look at what the death count is to date (which is undercounted and also backwards looking, when what matters is the future.) Note that no expert on this topic is expecting something like 5,000 deaths; their estimates are clustered in the 5-6 figure range (granted, lower six figures due to interventions to date)

4. The US is on track to have more than 60,000 people die of the virus even in a situation where we have effectively shut much of the country down. You can't shut the country down, have 60,000 people die, and say SEE, IT IS ANOTHER FLU!!! What would the death total be if you operated like a normal winter? That's the comparison that matters.

There's a reason the President is talking about 100k-200k deaths. That's what our government's best estimate has been even with many of the actions to date.

I don't mean to be a Pollyanna but most of you are really understating how severe this is for elderly and heavily affected populations. 100k deaths even with the country shut down tells us this is very dangerous and very good at spreading.

 

[Neutron Monster]

We see no evidence it will be worse. Likely similar at best. Can't see ANY evidence it will reach Swine Flu numbers of 60 million U S.
The point wasn't that Covid isn't bad! The point was.....where did the hysteria come from?

It came from the best experts telling our leaders what the death count would be if they didn't shut things down, and also from the realization that people wouldn't leave their houses anyway when things became bad.

And then they saw things get bad in Seattle and NYC and started acting.

 

[Neutron Monster]

Do you think the economy will be hurt by a pandemic?

Of course. But it would be damaged strongly even if the government didn't issue stay at home orders.

 

[Neutron Monster]

It appears the ventilator problem is being addressed. The guy in that video uses the illustration that the elephant flees the cat because it is annoying, causing the elephant to jump off a cliff. I sure hope that’s not what we are doing.

My hope: people see at the end of this we were all fools for buying into hysteria. Doesn’t mean that we will, or that the virus is as innocent as I want it to be.

If people don't feel like we overdid it, based upon what is happening in places like Milan, NYC, and Madrid...holy cow, then we failed in our response.

 

[kaskaskiakid]

Spot on Neutron!!