Final point on 2015. Maddon is a genius.
- Thread starter Duck_walk
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Matt Holliday of Sept/Oct 2015 isn't the same player he was in July 2014. He was clearly not healthy. That's the real complaint I have (and likely Eagles, too)
7 game series is nearly a total crapshoot. 5 game one is even moreso.
I do think the Cubs will look to find a 3rd starter who is above league average this offseason, though, to help their playoff chances next year
You're going to most like see the Cubs trade someone like Baez or a blocked minor league guy for a starter. Someone like a Tyson Ross or Carlos Carrasco
Almora might get moved as well. Plus a few Rule 5 guys who have way too much value to let go for free
My memory ain't what it used to be but I'm pretty sure Holliday was on fire before he got hurt the 1st time. I am in no way claiming he was great when he came back after the 2nd stint on the DL but he was when the season started. Carp hit .260 as opposed to the Carp that hit .300, had 50 doubles and got the offense started. A leadoff HR is nice but that doesn't always get an offense going like fouling off 5 or 6 close pitches to get a walk or a base hit. When a pitcher just can't get a guy out it wears on them every time he comes up. That was NOT the Carp we saw this season.
Holliday is old and past his prime.
Yadi is old and past his prime.
Jhonny is not an RBI guy.
Heyward is not an RBI guy.
VB has been shouting it from the top of Tom Sauk mountain all summer. This team needs an RBI guy. A slugger. A Cespedes type hammer to bat in the middle of the lineup.
Jhonny's numbers with RISP are awful his whole tenure here. Holliday had 3 HR, on pace to hit 8 before his first injury. Major drop off of power.
Yadi is old and past his prime.
Jhonny is not an RBI guy.
Heyward is not an RBI guy.
VB has been shouting it from the top of Tom Sauk mountain all summer. This team needs an RBI guy. A slugger. A Cespedes type hammer to bat in the middle of the lineup.
Jhonny's numbers with RISP are awful his whole tenure here. Holliday had 3 HR, on pace to hit 8 before his first injury. Major drop off of power.
HR's are NOT the end all be all. He was hitting and driving in runs before he got hurt.
His HR total is a sign he is not hitting the ball with the power he once had. He was walking and getting hit frequently before his injury because he had a long onbase streak of 40 plus games. But his xbh (power), slugging % numbers were not up. Come on man.
He hits the freakin ball 100+mph on a regular basis and he isn't fast. If you don't think a 3 hole hitter should hit line drives I can't help you. By your logic Carp should have been the cleanup man all year. We saw what happened when he was not in the leadoff spot and it wasn't pretty but your leadoff man can just can't strikeout 150 times. That has to be unacceptable to even the most avid metrics folks.
Among lead off man, Carp had the highest onbase % in the NL.
At the end of his career, Lou Brock was among the MLB highest for most career K's. How did he do?
Not as well as he could have if didn't strikeout much. Carp went from a very tough out to striking out 150 times. That is NOT a positive thing. Strikeouts are NOT just another out!
It's not 1950 anymore, we have very good data on the impact of a K, and it's not nearly what you make it out to be.
Carp was pretty clearly our best hitter this year once you account for playing time.
Carp was pretty clearly our best hitter this year once you account for playing time.
Ok so cut down on the strikeouts and be even better. I don't care what year it is, NOTHING good happens when you strikeout. If you put the ball in play a lot of things have go well for the defense to get an out, and even then you might advance a runner or drive him in. There is NO good argument for a strikeout being just another out. It's jusy plain dumb to say otherwise.
Seriously. Go beat your head off the wall. It will be less painful than what you're about to set in motion. Trust me.
What does saber metrics say about a strikeout with a runner on 2nd or 3rd with no outs? If it says that's just another out then I have less faith in their stats than ever. Surely in all their wisdom it would say that was a very bad at bat.
I have mentioned that scenario in this discussion before. It's also good if a pitcher that can't hit a lick strikes out with a runner on 1st rather than roll into a DP, but even in that case the defense has to do 3 or more things right. If you put the ball in play something good just might happen. If you don't your hoping for a wild pitch or past ball ti bail you out on your K.
So you don't want to know the value of a strikeout from a Saber standpoint? Well there's your answer. I can't help you anymore than to tell you exactly where to look.
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Hehe. It's never ending man. I've finally learned my lesson. But it is maddening.
Can any of you tell me that you honestly believe that a strikeout is just another out and doesn't hurt your team more than a ball that is put in play? If so there is no hope for you as baseball fan. There are many more things that can happen that are good if you hit the ball that just can't happen with a strikeout. So we won't even agree to disagree because that is just plain ridiculous. Movin on to basketball season.
I can, but choose not to with you. If you couldn't open your mind the other 699 times it's been discussed on here, #700 isn't going to change anything. I dig you, I really do, but I have zero interest in discussing something you A) Don't understand. B) Because of A you dismiss its validity.
A strike out can be a better AB than a pop up or ground out, If, like you say, it wears out the pitcher.
However, there were a whole lot of 8th inning man on second, no outs, situations when a ground ball or deep fly to the right side would have been preferred to a Grichuk or Peralta K.
I assume that is 3R's point. Small ball can still be important when you don't have any 30 HR guys on your entire roster.
However, there were a whole lot of 8th inning man on second, no outs, situations when a ground ball or deep fly to the right side would have been preferred to a Grichuk or Peralta K.
I assume that is 3R's point. Small ball can still be important when you don't have any 30 HR guys on your entire roster.
Yes my point is you can move a runner up a base, drive in a run or maybe force the defense into a mistake that does even better than that. If you strikeout you have done NONE of those things and didn't make the defense make a play, which even the pros can, and do, mess up. I don't care what ANY stat program shows, putting the ball in play is far and away better than a strikeout. Now eagle tell me who it is that doesn't understand. Ask the Cubs if they would have preferred that a NY batter strikeout or hit a flyball/line drive to left field.
Who woulda thunk.....a rookie catcher learning the outfield on the fly misplayed a couple balls
He also left one on the score board....remember that?
It doesn't take a stat program to understand this. Feel free to google it, but even Kershaw said it was incredible how hard he had to work against the Cubs.....even though he was collecting strikeouts. You know why? Because they worked every at bat. That leads to increased strikeouts. It also increases the odds of knocking a Kershaw or Greinke out of the game in the 6th inning because they've reached 100 pitches already.
But you still won't grasp that concept. You'll continue to argue. You'll continue to be wrong. Enjoy
He also left one on the score board....remember that?
It doesn't take a stat program to understand this. Feel free to google it, but even Kershaw said it was incredible how hard he had to work against the Cubs.....even though he was collecting strikeouts. You know why? Because they worked every at bat. That leads to increased strikeouts. It also increases the odds of knocking a Kershaw or Greinke out of the game in the 6th inning because they've reached 100 pitches already.
But you still won't grasp that concept. You'll continue to argue. You'll continue to be wrong. Enjoy
3R has never said don't work the count to help get pitch count up. What he says is when the out is made a ball in play almost always has a better chance of something positive than a K. And he's right. That's not the rocket science you guys are making it out to be.
I don't care what a rookie playing out of position did or didn't do, it was NOT a slam on his defense. I'm saying if the batters that hit the ball to LF had struck out he would not have had the opportunity to misplay the ball. BTW the idea behind working the count and fouling off pitches is to stay alive and hope to get a mistake pitch you can hit hard somewhere MUCH more than to run up the pitch count. It doesn't matter who on the defense boots a ball, the team would rather have had that batter strikeout than put the ball in play. If you think that is wrong there is NO stat that can help you.
