My point was, it IS an issue. Kids who are not good academically in say, Missouri, don’t have local juco options. Most of them don’t play football after HS. In Mississippi, that athletic kid who ain’t really ready for college can continue playing at the juco level and either improve academically or get two years in and then get to sign with a D-1 team. Do you understand now?
so per capita they have more D-1 players.
I understand, but this is a case where two things are true at the same time.
If you only judged the two states by how many players signed with D1 schools on actual signing day, Mississippi has more total players year in and year out, though Missouri has closed the gap in recent years. Which means, since Missouri has more than twice the population, that Mississippi produces significantly more per capita. That was the premise of the OP as well, the stars aren't being assigned retroactively. They're being assigned during the athletes HS career.
If you add in all the guys who eventually go on to play Division I football after JUCO that originate from Mississippi, then, the per capita numbers start becoming absurd.
The reality is that all those state's in that region produce more D1 players, on actual signing day, than Missouri, whether they have a JUCO program in their state or not.
Louisiana and Alabama produce significantly more D1 players than Missouri despite having smaller populations, Tennessee produces more despite having a similar population, and Georgia produces more Division I signees per capita. All on actual signing day. Louisiana, Alabama and Tennessee do not have a JUCO playing football in their state that I am aware of ... Georgia has one.
So there is more going on there than just the play JUCO football in Mississippi. That fact may influence the overall numbers of how many players are actually playing D1 football at any given moment, but not the way stars are assigned in high school or the number of players who sign on signing day.
On the flip side, Kansas has nearly as many JUCOs playing football as Mississippi, nearly the exact same population, yet they are producing roughly 1/10 the number of D1 players on signing day.
So obviously, the JUCO thing has some limitations.