Update on C-Virus

[MGHS]

As I've told you before my GF is on a CDC task force here. We had our first Positive first in the County second in the state. I knew this a Day or so ago but Couldn't talk about it until they released it to the press. There is also another possible positive as well.

They had a Big meeting brought in a specialist and nothing as really changed on the dangers, risk etc. except they are a bit concerned that even though younger people are not getting it that the exposure could cause very minute scaring in the Lungs that could lead to issues in older life.

Other than that the fatality rate numbers have changed a bit..80yr up to 18%,70yr 10% and 60yr 6% all others the same 50yr 1.3% the rest of the age groups less than 1%.

So if you are old it's not a good thing, but everyone else it's not a Extinction level event. Still their main concern is panic and everyone flooding facilities etc. They literally shut off their C-Virus hotline...because of the panic traffic and stupidity. Some of the Stories are great though....

 

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

Thanks for the update. So far statistically the fatality rate is close to 7% in Washington St (mostly at one rest home) and about .8 % for rest of the country.

 

[Neutron Monster]

It's better than being old, but "less than 1%" is not that great. The natural rate of mortality is under 1% a year until you reach your late 60s and under 0.1% until you reach age 50 (ignoring the first year of life here.)

At even a 20% spread in the US, you'd be talking about a pretty meaningful amount of excess mortality - years worth of excess deaths at middle ages.

 

[Veerman_12]

It's better than being old, but "less than 1%" is not that great. The natural rate of mortality is under 1% a year until you reach your late 60s and under 0.1% until you reach age 50 (ignoring the first year of life here.)

At even a 20% spread in the US, you'd be talking about a pretty meaningful amount of excess mortality - years worth of excess deaths at middle ages.

It's primarily killing those in their 70's and those with significantly weakened immune systems. Hardly anyone in "middle age" is dying and if they are it's because they already had health problems.

Not saying that makes them expendable, but let's not act like it's killing people who weren't already high risk.

 

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

It's better than being old, but "less than 1%" is not that great. The natural rate of mortality is under 1% a year until you reach your late 60s and under 0.1% until you reach age 50 (ignoring the first year of life here.)

At even a 20% spread in the US, you'd be talking about a pretty meaningful amount of excess mortality - years worth of excess deaths at middle ages.

I believe it is going to eventually spread to most of the population which means more fatalities and it is serious but the response to it in this country has been unprecedented. I think/hope the fatality rates will continue to decrease over time. Most estimates are that we are looking at next summer before there is a vaccine.

 

[Neutron Monster]

It's primarily killing those in their 70's and those with significantly weakened immune systems. Hardly anyone in "middle age" is dying and if they are it's because they already had health problems.

Not saying that makes them expendable, but let's not act like it's killing people who weren't already high risk.

It depends upon the infection rate and mortality rate. If 10% of the people get it and it's a 0.1% change, that's 1 in 10,000 people - not earthshattering overall. If it's 50% infections and 0.5%-1%, you're talking 1 in 200-400 people in those age groups. That's a substantive impact on society to lose that many middle aged people.

It's terrible for the elderly to die, but the economic impact of the death of a 50 year old with kids is much more meaningful.

 

[Veerman_12]

It depends upon the infection rate and mortality rate. If 10% of the people get it and it's a 0.1% change, that's 1 in 10,000 people - not earthshattering overall. If it's 50% infections and 0.5%-1%, you're talking 1 in 200-400 people in those age groups. That's a substantive impact on society to lose that many middle aged people.

It's terrible for the elderly to die, but the economic impact of the death of a 50 year old with kids is much more meaningful.

If.

 

[Neutron Monster]

If.

Absolutely. I would hope that our leaders are receiving the best estimates they can get, and that they will evolve their views over time as we learn more

 

[kaskaskiakid]

I'm not getting too excited until I actually know someone who is infected. I can avoid crowds for a couple months. Good excuse to go fishing.

 

[3Rfan]

I'm not getting too excited until I actually know someone who is infected. I can avoid crowds for a couple months. Good excuse to go fishing.

Watch out for those flying Carp, I hear they're dangerous.

 

[Stop n Go]

In other news...

 

[Neutron Monster]

I'm not getting too excited until I actually know someone who is infected. I can avoid crowds for a couple months. Good excuse to go fishing.

It certainly doesn't seem like STL is yet where NYC or Seattle is. Thankfully. But that's also a reason to avoid crowds and be smart as you note - we have an advantage that we should protect

 

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

In other news...

View embedded media

Could have been working on Corona vaccine...

 

[millerbleach]

And morel hunting...

I hear morels increase the severity of Coronavirus! I am trained in the proper removal and disposal of them if you see any let me know and i'll help rid you of the threat!

 

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

Based on the numbers at the moment the fatality rate has been 6.25% in Washington State largely based on the one facility and about 0.86 % in the rest of the country. I expect as tests go out you will see the number of cases balloon but that will lead to a declining fatality rate.

Just be prepared for the onslaught of stories about how much this has spread.

 

[millerbleach]

Based on the numbers at the moment the fatality rate has been 6.25% in Washington State largely based on the one facility and about 0.86 % in the rest of the country. I expect as tests go out you will see the number of cases balloon but that will lead to a declining fatality rate.

Just be prepared for the onslaught of stories about how much this has spread.

Yes.
As the number of people tested rises, it will look like massive spread but it will also show the mortality rate to plummet. Neither will be totally factual since the infection numbers are likely skewed very low now without testing and the mortality rate is skewed very high now because only those very ill are being tested.

 

[Draftpik]

Yes.
As the number of people tested rises, it will look like massive spread but it will also show the mortality rate to plummet. Neither will be totally factual since the infection numbers are likely skewed very low now without testing and the mortality rate is skewed very high now because only those very ill are being tested.

Nobody knows what will happen. When they say they do..

 

[Texascap]

Yes.
As the number of people tested rises, it will look like massive spread but it will also show the mortality rate to plummet. Neither will be totally factual since the infection numbers are likely skewed very low now without testing and the mortality rate is skewed very high now because only those very ill are being tested.

The statistics of South Korea and Italy are interesting. I'm sure you already know they tested 3,700 per million in South Korea compared to 830 by Italy. Italy's death rate is 10 times higher. Although testing in Korea prevented the spread it doesn't necessarily correlate with fewer deaths in a relatively stable health care system. Italy's outbreak occurred among a higher senior population and more very old women that smoke, while SK outbreak occurred among young non-smoking women.

 

[Arcola]

They just shut down all restaurants, bars, and recreation center in Greene county starting tomorrow they will only be allowed to deliver or do curb side pick up.

 

[MGHS]

They just shut down all restaurants, bars, and recreation center in Greene county starting tomorrow they will only be allowed to deliver or do curb side pick up.

Another positive in Greene CO today as well moving total to 4..as of 5pm

 

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

Yes.
As the number of people tested rises, it will look like massive spread but it will also show the mortality rate to plummet. Neither will be totally factual since the infection numbers are likely skewed very low now without testing and the mortality rate is skewed very high now because only those very ill are being tested.

This looks like it is happening. Statistically it is down to about 1.4% in the US, still about .8% outside of Washington St. Obviously even ,8 is a pretty big rate. Hopefully keeps creeping down.

 

[Neutron Monster]

This looks like it is happening. Statistically it is down to about 1.4% in the US, still about .8% outside of Washington St. Obviously even ,8 is a pretty big rate. Hopefully keeps creeping down.

Difficult to evaluate US results given the stats are both in progress (some current positives will die - you have to evaluate retroactively, not while in progress - see the Italian data for a great example of this) and underreported by so much (we didn't test people who didn't meet super stringent criteria, who weren't that sick, or who died before they were eligible for testing.) Plus there is a risk that mortality rises as case counts rise if the health system is unable to handle the cash count.

I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just saying that you absolutely do not have the data to draw the conclusion that you're reaching, in particular because you're evaluating someone today who is in the ICU with COVID as someone who hasn't died. That's a very bad assumption.

 

[Stop n Go]

For some odd reason, we never tend to here the good news. I guess good news doesn’t get clicks.

 

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

Difficult to evaluate US results given the stats are both in progress (some current positives will die - you have to evaluate retroactively, not while in progress - see the Italian data for a great example of this) and underreported by so much (we didn't test people who didn't meet super stringent criteria, who weren't that sick, or who died before they were eligible for testing.) Plus there is a risk that mortality rises as case counts rise if the health system is unable to handle the cash count.

I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just saying that you absolutely do not have the data to draw the conclusion that you're reaching, in particular because you're evaluating someone today who is in the ICU with COVID as someone who hasn't died. That's a very bad assumption.

I’ve used the same formula from the outset. You are right some infected are going to die but the trend line is going in the right direction. There are also I suspect a large number yet to be tested that have had this and recovered possibly with no idea that had it. Maybe a large part of the population are only carriers. Testing those individuals at this Obviously a lot comes down to how much of the population get the virus but there is a huge difference between say a 1% fatality rate and one that is say .6%.

 

[Draftpik]

I read a study pointing to the downside of testing large numbers of the population. All tests have degree of failure. In theory the study argues the number of false positive results could outnumber the false negatives results.
Which reiterates my point, we need to mitigate by getting all the supplies and ICU space ready, and move away from the South Korea model as soon as possible. We don't have reliable data as it stands, and even if we have all the data from the tests it won't necessarily help us.

 

[Neutron Monster]

I read a study pointing to the downside of testing large numbers of the population. All tests have degree of failure. In theory the study argues the number of false positive results could outnumber the false negatives results.
Which reiterates my point, we need to mitigate by getting all the supplies and ICU space ready, and move away from the South Korea model as soon as possible. We don't have reliable data as it stands, and even if we have all the data from the tests it won't necessarily help us.

The value of mass testing is that you can limit some of the economic carnage. If you know who is sick you can actually put them in quarantine instead of quarantining everyone. That's really, really valuable, and a reason to spend a nearly bottomless pit of cash on testing.

 

[Draftpik]

The value of mass testing is that you can limit some of the economic carnage. If you know who is sick you can actually put them in quarantine instead of quarantining everyone. That's really, really valuable, and a reason to spend a nearly bottomless pit of cash on testing.

Definitely.

 

[vbsideout]

It's a hoax. Last I heard there were 15 cases soon to be 1

 

[Draftpik]

It's a hoax. Last I heard there were 15 cases soon to be 1

That's a new one. Never heard that till now. Good one.

 

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

The value of mass testing is that you can limit some of the economic carnage. If you know who is sick you can actually put them in quarantine instead of quarantining everyone. That's really, really valuable, and a reason to spend a nearly bottomless pit of cash on testing.

This looks like it is happening. Statistically it is down to about 1.4% in the US, still about .8% outside of Washington St. Obviously even ,8 is a pretty big rate. Hopefully keeps creeping down.

A ton of new cases but the fatality rate is now just under 1.3%. Hopefully keeps moving down though my rough math seems to have the rate to be about .8% still since the initial outbreak in Washington. It looks like the Epicenter is now NYC.

 

[millerbleach]

A ton of new cases but the fatality rate is now just under 1.3%. Hopefully keeps moving down though my rough math seems to have the rate to be about .8% still since the initial outbreak in Washington. It looks like the Epicenter is now NYC.

Germany has done massive testing and have 20,000 confirmed cases. They also have 60 deaths! What is that rate? While many more of the confirmed will die, it shows the death rate isn't as great as stated and mass testing shows it.
The flu mortality rate is much lower than coronavirus because they estimate the number of flu victims because they know most flu victims aren't tested. Do the same with Covid 19 and the rate would be similar or maybe lower.

 

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

Germany has done massive testing and have 20,000 confirmed cases. They also have 60 deaths! What is that rate? While many more of the confirmed will die, it shows the death rate isn't as great as stated and mass testing shows it.
The flu mortality rate is much lower than coronavirus because they estimate the number of flu victims because they know most flu victims aren't tested. Do the same with Covid 19 and the rate would be similar or maybe lower.

That is why I “think” the mortality rate will drop over time. We may not really know for weeks. At the same time the fatality rate in Italy remains very high.

 

[Stop n Go]

That is why I “think” the mortality rate will drop over time. We may not really know for weeks. At the same time the fatality rate in Italy remains very high.

Italy has the second highest population of older people at 23%.

 

[millerbleach]

At the same time the fatality rate in Italy remains very high.

So is their average age.

 

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

# of cases are still growing quickly but statistically it is down to 1.15%. Would be better if both numbers were lower but at least the latter number is trending down.

 

[Neutron Monster]

Guys, all of this analysis of cases versus deaths is totally meaningless given deaths are a lagging statistic. Italy reported huge numbers of cases. Then huge numbers of deaths. Germany and others are behind Italy. You simply cannot look at a place like the UK or New York and think that the death rates are meaningful at all right now. Look at the transition in the Spanish reporting data over the last week. You'd think the virus has suddenly become deadlier. No, it hasn't...it's just that the reporting of deaths on cases identified 7-14 days is finally happening.

 

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

Guys, all of this analysis of cases versus deaths is totally meaningless given deaths are a lagging statistic. Italy reported huge numbers of cases. Then huge numbers of deaths. Germany and others are behind Italy. You simply cannot look at a place like the UK or New York and think that the death rates are meaningful at all right now. Look at the transition in the Spanish reporting data over the last week. You'd think the virus has suddenly become deadlier. No, it hasn't...it's just that the reporting of deaths on cases identified 7-14 days is finally happening.

It is far from exact. It is just measuring trends. Yes, some current cases are going to result in death. Spain and Italy have had a spike in deaths in part because they have been overwhelmed with cases. In Italy one doctor said they aren’t even giving respirators your patients over 60. That is going to make death rates spike.

 

[Draftpik]

Guys, all of this analysis of cases versus deaths is totally meaningless given deaths are a lagging statistic. Italy reported huge numbers of cases. Then huge numbers of deaths. Germany and others are behind Italy. You simply cannot look at a place like the UK or New York and think that the death rates are meaningful at all right now. Look at the transition in the Spanish reporting data over the last week. You'd think the virus has suddenly become deadlier. No, it hasn't...it's just that the reporting of deaths on cases identified 7-14 days is finally happening.

Then we should look at the Princess Cruise example? 15% infection rate, 3% hospitalization, 0.1% morality rate. It's adjusted demographically for Americans.
Honest question? What's the death rate if unemployment is 40%. Bloomberg News the Fed is predicting 30%. The Great Depression was 26%? This 30% is highest in history.

 

[Neutron Monster]

Then we should look at the Princess Cruise example? 15% infection rate, 3% hospitalization, 0.1% morality rate. It's adjusted demographically for Americans.
Honest question? What's the death rate if unemployment is 40%. Bloomberg News the Fed is predicting 30%. The Great Depression was 26%? This 30% is highest in history.

Princess was a great sample of what happens when extensive testing and extensive treatment in a world class health system are available.

that may not be a great sample for a place like Italy or NYC where the health system is overwhelmed.

We absolutely should recognize that economic carnage has consequences for our national health. It’s a big part of the reason to deficit spend. Our historical inclination is to underspend. We are literally killing people if we are too timid now.

the private market economic stats are going to be bleak for q2 and probably q3. They are what they are. We should care that the poverty level doesn’t rise too much and that the death rate is muted.

its also a reason to spend a crazy amount of money on research and testing. One month less of social distancing is worth a number of lives and a lot of economic activity.

 

[vbsideout]

So are we now conceding this is not a hoax as our King told his minions at his last rally.?