This is WAR

[Duck_walk]

2017 WAR: Carlos 3.1. Lynn 2.8. Wacha 1.2. Wainwright .8. Weaver .8.

Lackey 1.1. Jon Lester 1.0.

But we cant make a serious offer to a guy who worked his guts out for us. Lets go bargain basement. Roll the dice. Mayers to the rescue.

 

[wccards21]

Not sure where you got your numbers, but Lester was nearly a 3 WAR pitcher

 

[Duck_walk]

Not sure where you got your numbers, but Lester was nearly a 3 WAR pitcher

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lestejo01.shtml

 

[wccards21]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lestejo01.shtml

Ahhhhhhhh. I don't care for BBRef myself. So carry on.

 

[3Rfan]

Ahhhhhhhh. I don't care for BBRef myself. So carry on.

You can find stats to suit your purpose on almost anything, there are so many out there they become pretty worthless.

 

[wccards21]

You can find stats to suit your purpose on almost anything, there are so many out there they become pretty worthless.

I just prefer Fangraphs

Much easier webpage to use on mobile device. Also, their formula for WAR is much more balanced, compared to Ref. It's a fine site, just a personal preference.

However, Ref's splits data is incredible. Breakdowns of individual performance per stadium or per specific hitters/pitchers

 

[Neutron Monster]

I just prefer Fangraphs

Much easier webpage to use on mobile device. Also, their formula for WAR is much more balanced, compared to Ref. It's a fine site, just a personal preference.

However, Ref's splits data is incredible. Breakdowns of individual performance per stadium or per specific hitters/pitchers

Fangraphs uses fielding independent pitching stats to determine WAR. BB Ref does not. This causes major differences in their WAR calculations.

Fangraphs liked Lester a fair amount but doesn't think he is a stud anymore, but it didn't think all that much of Lynn (1.4 total), because Lester had better peripherals (K/BB/% of fly balls resulting in HR). Lynn was the #6 Cardinals SP by WAR at fangraphs, because he walks too many guys to have a mediocre K rate, and he gives up the most fly balls of any Cardinals SP (a bad thing in the 2016-2017 juiced ball world)

You should probably look at both of them, but the Fangraphs one is generally considered closer to the cutting edge/how MLB teams actually evaluate talent, where teams are trying to evaluate pitching on a more neutral basis. BBRef likes using a consistent calculation for all years of their data that is easy to generate.

WAR is kind of a tough stat overall (trying to do a lot at once) and sometimes you're better off just digging into the basic rates - K, BB, flyball/groundball rates. When you look at these, signing Lynn is really a bet that he can turn back into the guy from 2013-2015, not a bet that he can repeat 2017 over and over, because he wasn't that great in 2017. He's managed to lose over a K per nine innings in a league where everyone is striking out more, his walk rate has ticked up to being unacceptable, and he's giving up tons of flyballs that are leaving the park. He was a #4-#5 starter last year, not the #2-#3 that he was prior to the injury.