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The Republican Party is Dying

Gubbba Bump Shrimp

Well-Known Member
Aug 15, 2016
1,038
174
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#1: The Republican Party’s voter base is continually shrinking.

Think about it — while they hold a majority in the House thanks to gerrymandering, the Senate is not held by the GOP and neither is the White House. In fact, no Republican candidate has easily won the White House since 1988 when George H.W. Bush beat Michael Dukakis in a landslide.

#2: Themselves.

The Republican Party is becoming even more extreme. It wasn’t acceptable to openly accuse the President of treason and call for impeachment for imaginary crimes ten or twenty years ago – at least in the rank and file part of the party. Yes, I know that Bill Clinton lied under oath about making sexy times with Monica Lewinsky, but that was an actual case of proven perjury and not the delusions of some far right nuts who believe President Obama went back in time and forged his own birth certificate.

#3: Libertarians.

No, not the Rand Paul style of fake libertarianism which has become popular within the GOP lately, but the collection of people who are not tied to one political party or another. These are voters who reject the concepts of endless war and warrantless surveillance signed off on by the majority of Republicans as well as many Democrats. They may not be libertarians in the most ideologically pure manner, but there are some voters (myself included) who believe both in affordable or even free healthcare for all and the right for law-abiding citizens to keep and bear arms, within reason.

#4: The Tea Party.

Similar to point #2, when you allow extremist factions greater power in order to keep votes and donations coming in, eventually something goes wrong. Having been a child prop for the religious right and watching the fringe elements push for ever more control, it was obvious that the radical element would take control of the party bus once given the opportunity. Remember, these aren’t people who can be reasoned or bargained with. They view the federal government, our national credit rating, and the world’s economy as hostages to be taken and used as negotiating tools in exchange for pushing their agenda, which even includes disenfranchising female voters.

#5: Greed.

Sheer, unadulterated greed. For years we’ve been told that with more corporate profits, the wealth would eventually “trickle down.” Yet with the current economic status of the middle class and record corporate earnings, we can finally dismiss “trickle down” economics as being the load of 2 ton bull feces that it really is.

#6: Progress.

Despite everything the GOP has done to try to stifle the growth of third parties and keep minorities from voting, it’s not like Hans Brinker sticking his finger in that Dutch dike to keep the sea from swallowing everything. Eventually, they will lose. Old ideas fall by the wayside. Old prejudices die out with the people who hold them.

#7: Demographics.

Every year, new voters join the rolls and every year, older voters leave the rolls due to the eventual march of time and mortality. Younger voters don’t remember the days before desegregation, and they’re not as likely to respond positively to the racial, homophobic or xenophobic “dog whistles” used by candidates or media pundits.

#8: Ted Cruz.

Yes, Ted Cruz. Sure there are other nut jobs that have driven the GOP close to going over the ideological cliff, but Ted Cruz reminds me of Major Kong riding a falling hydrogen bomb in the famous movie “Dr. Strangelove.” No single politician wanted it as badly and did more to ensure the government’s shutdown than Ted Cruz. Just like Major Kong, he’s whooping and hollering all the way to oblivion, to the end of the Republican Party – and there’s nothing they can do about it.
 
#1: The Republican Party’s voter base is continually shrinking.

Think about it — while they hold a majority in the House thanks to gerrymandering, the Senate is not held by the GOP and neither is the White House. In fact, no Republican candidate has easily won the White House since 1988 when George H.W. Bush beat Michael Dukakis in a landslide.

#2: Themselves.

The Republican Party is becoming even more extreme. It wasn’t acceptable to openly accuse the President of treason and call for impeachment for imaginary crimes ten or twenty years ago – at least in the rank and file part of the party. Yes, I know that Bill Clinton lied under oath about making sexy times with Monica Lewinsky, but that was an actual case of proven perjury and not the delusions of some far right nuts who believe President Obama went back in time and forged his own birth certificate.

#3: Libertarians.

No, not the Rand Paul style of fake libertarianism which has become popular within the GOP lately, but the collection of people who are not tied to one political party or another. These are voters who reject the concepts of endless war and warrantless surveillance signed off on by the majority of Republicans as well as many Democrats. They may not be libertarians in the most ideologically pure manner, but there are some voters (myself included) who believe both in affordable or even free healthcare for all and the right for law-abiding citizens to keep and bear arms, within reason.

#4: The Tea Party.

Similar to point #2, when you allow extremist factions greater power in order to keep votes and donations coming in, eventually something goes wrong. Having been a child prop for the religious right and watching the fringe elements push for ever more control, it was obvious that the radical element would take control of the party bus once given the opportunity. Remember, these aren’t people who can be reasoned or bargained with. They view the federal government, our national credit rating, and the world’s economy as hostages to be taken and used as negotiating tools in exchange for pushing their agenda, which even includes disenfranchising female voters.

#5: Greed.

Sheer, unadulterated greed. For years we’ve been told that with more corporate profits, the wealth would eventually “trickle down.” Yet with the current economic status of the middle class and record corporate earnings, we can finally dismiss “trickle down” economics as being the load of 2 ton bull feces that it really is.

#6: Progress.

Despite everything the GOP has done to try to stifle the growth of third parties and keep minorities from voting, it’s not like Hans Brinker sticking his finger in that Dutch dike to keep the sea from swallowing everything. Eventually, they will lose. Old ideas fall by the wayside. Old prejudices die out with the people who hold them.

#7: Demographics.

Every year, new voters join the rolls and every year, older voters leave the rolls due to the eventual march of time and mortality. Younger voters don’t remember the days before desegregation, and they’re not as likely to respond positively to the racial, homophobic or xenophobic “dog whistles” used by candidates or media pundits.

#8: Ted Cruz.

Yes, Ted Cruz. Sure there are other nut jobs that have driven the GOP close to going over the ideological cliff, but Ted Cruz reminds me of Major Kong riding a falling hydrogen bomb in the famous movie “Dr. Strangelove.” No single politician wanted it as badly and did more to ensure the government’s shutdown than Ted Cruz. Just like Major Kong, he’s whooping and hollering all the way to oblivion, to the end of the Republican Party – and there’s nothing they can do about it.
How old is that thing? It says republicans do not control the Senate.
 
Republican party has been dying a slow death, Trump is moving things along a lot quicker.
Pew Research
(59%) of the discussions about the election have mostly been about the candidates’ personalities and comments; fewer (32%) say they have focused on specific issues and policy positions. In this regard, voters are having conversations about the election that reflect what they say they are seeing from the campaign and news coverage of the election.In June, 65% of voters said the presidential campaign “is not focused on important policy debates,” and in a separate survey, 55% of adults said there was too little news coverage of the candidates’ stances on issues.
 
Pew Research
(59%) of the discussions about the election have mostly been about the candidates’ personalities and comments; fewer (32%) say they have focused on specific issues and policy positions. In this regard, voters are having conversations about the election that reflect what they say they are seeing from the campaign and news coverage of the election.In June, 65% of voters said the presidential campaign “is not focused on important policy debates,” and in a separate survey, 55% of adults said there was too little news coverage of the candidates’ stances on issues.

Virtually exactly what I said in another thread. If the debates focus on policy and issues facing the American people, Hillary will crucify Trump.

If Gary is included, since he's running virtually entirely on the issues he may win the whole thing.
 
Republican party has been dying a slow death, Trump is moving things along a lot quicker.

At the national level the GOP is a mess but the GOP controls 30 state legislatures with the DEMs controlling 12, 7 are split. (Nebraska has a unicameral legislature but may as well be considered GOP).

The GOP has 31 governors to 18 for DEMs.

So I would say the GOP as a whole isn't dying but there are some at the national level that aren't doing it any favors.
 
At the national level the GOP is a mess but the GOP controls 30 state legislatures with the DEMs controlling 12, 7 are split. (Nebraska has a unicameral legislature but may as well be considered GOP).

The GOP has 31 governors to 18 for DEMs.

So I would say the GOP as a whole isn't dying but there are some at the national level that aren't doing it any favors.
The GOP brand has certainly been hurt by this years choice of nominee.
 
Virtually exactly what I said in another thread. If the debates focus on policy and issues facing the American people, Hillary will crucify Trump.

If Gary is included, since he's running virtually entirely on the issues he may win the whole thing.
I agree in part that Hillary will win in a policy issue debate. For in part, the same reason that Trump will lose to her, Gary will lose too. Not for Gary's lack of knowledge or experience but in the basic reality that the American people are a long way from conservative brand of policies.
For me, I actually agree on some Johnson's policies, but he doesn't seem to that great holding on to Libertarian principles when it comes to a number of issues that conservatives see as a deal breaker. In reading about Johnson, I feel aiken to disagreeing with him more on his leftist lean, rather than his fiscal policies.
 
I agree in part that Hillary will win in a policy issue debate. For in part, the same reason that Trump will lose to her, Gary will lose too. Not for Gary's lack of knowledge or experience but in the basic reality that the American people are a long way from conservative brand of policies.
For me, I actually agree on some Johnson's policies, but he doesn't seem to that great holding on to Libertarian principles when it comes to a number of issues that conservatives see as a deal breaker. In reading about Johnson, I feel aiken to disagreeing with him more on his leftist lean, rather than his fiscal policies.

That's the thing though, I think the American people would absolutely be on board if he explains the fiscally conservative aspects correctly.

The rational 40% of us who consider ourselves moderate hopefully would see the benefits of having Gary in the White House, congress would almost be forced to do their job because who do they side with? They can't make a big show on CNN, MSNBC, of Fox over well we rejected legislation simply because he's in the opposite party.

I think it would do a lot for some of the partisan gridlock. I think enough conservatives (if they use their brains) will be appeased by tax cuts, fiscal conservatism, and gun rights. Admittedly there are a lot who won't go for the pro-choice message, but there are enough who aren't single issue voters who will.

Ultimately if the debate focuses on policy and isn't allowed to turn into a mud slinging contest, Gary has arguably the best policy for the greatest amount of people. Also his honesty and genuine nature will turn a lot of people on who are unfamiliar with seeing honesty in politics.

I don't see any way that Trump can win if they stick to the issues and stick to policy questions.
 
The GOP has to be remade. The country is rapidly moving away from being a country run by old white men. The question is who is the leader to do it?
 
The GOP brand has certainly been hurt by this years choice of nominee.

The GOP as a national party is largely responsible for this years choice of nominee.

That said, it is tough to say the GOP is a dying party when it is winning the majority of elections at the state and local levels. Missouri for example used to be a true swing state and now for the most part it is red. The DEM nominee for governor is even positioning himself as someone who has fought against the the Obama administration.
 
The GOP as a national party is largely responsible for this years choice of nominee.

That said, it is tough to say the GOP is a dying party when it is winning the majority of elections at the state and local levels. Missouri for example used to be a true swing state and now for the most part it is red. The DEM nominee for governor is even positioning himself as someone who has fought against the the Obama administration.
What happens is MO is emblematic of national trends in voting patterns among rural white people in a quasi-Southern state, not really a sign of the GOP having a great plan for the future. Take Reynolds County: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reynolds_County,_Missouri#Federal . Yes, Rs are doing much better there, but Reynolds County is a terrible proxy for how America is changing. It's 95% white with no population growth and an aging population. MO's change is aligned with the death of the D party in places like Arkansas. The change in America is better represented by changes in cities and suburbs in places like this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mecklenburg_County,_North_Carolina#Law.2C_government_and_politics - this is why the Ds are winning in VA/NC and are coming on strong in GA. These are diverse places with more educated populations. They are where the population growth is in the US.

It is true that Rs are doing better in state/local elections, but the underlying trend problem still exists. Rs are not doing better with young people and minorities in state and local elections. For example, a lot of their success in governor's races has to do with the fact that most of those races take place off cycle from Presidential elections when older people and white people are more likely to vote.

There's no question there are some real bright spots and some people who seem more emblematic of what the future could be - Brian Sandoval, John Kasich, and Nathan Deal come to mind. Haslam, too.
 
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The most terrifying thing about this election, from an R standpoint, is that in addition to writing off minorities, they are trading away support from college educated whites (a growing population) for support non-college educated whites (a shrinking population).

It's like they have done everything possible to shrink the pie and to give every single segment of the population that is growing a bad opinion of the party.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/partisan-loyalty-begins-at-age-18/ http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/02/the-liberal-millennial-revolution/470826/ http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...ow-age-affects-attitudes-and-voting-behavior/ This sort of thing is terrifying for Republicans.
 
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The most terrifying thing about this election, from an R standpoint, is that in addition to writing off minorities, they are trading away support from college educated whites (a growing population) for support non-college educated whites (a shrinking population).

It's like they have done everything possible to shrink the pie and to give every single segment of the population that is growing a bad opinion of the party.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/partisan-loyalty-begins-at-age-18/ http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/02/the-liberal-millennial-revolution/470826/ http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...ow-age-affects-attitudes-and-voting-behavior/ This sort of thing is terrifying for Republicans.

This sort of thing SHOULD BE terrifying for Republicans...and likely would be if they were smart enough to realize there's a problem.
 
Long term trend isn't fixed. He still lost minorities badly and bled college + whites.

He wins because demographic change is happening slower in the Midwest and because noncollege whites decided to vote like a minority group.

He's up <2% in a whole lot of EVs. His coalition is tenuous.
 
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With Ca, NY, Chicago, and Phil. in their pocket, the popular vote is only a story if the Dem doesn't win it.
 
With Ca, NY, Chicago, and Phil. in their pocket, the popular vote is only a story if the Dem doesn't win it.
Clinton would probably be President if she won the popular vote by 3 points. It's tough to get the electoral vote vs popular vote gap much wider, although it probably won't look any cleaner until the Ds are truly competitive in Texas

One of the big differences between 2008 and 2012 vs 2016 is how many EVs were in states with margins of victory that are going to be under 5%. And also under 10% for that matter.
 
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