Is losing 10,000,000 jobs an inconvienence? Dr. Fauci
- Thread starter Texascap
- Start date
I cut him a little slack because he isn’t an economist but there is a finite amount of time an economy can shut down even in a deadly pandemic.
I liked his explanation of the model's. CNN and NBC both changed his explanation to what amounts to a lie.
I guess we will find out. Sweden chose to not ruin their economy. Their Drs. are freaking. We shall see.
Overwhelmed hospitals and exponential growth of infections and ultimately deaths aren't going to help them.
Of course Sweden gave up their country to jihadis, so they're screwed anyway.
It simply is not his responsibility to worry about economics. He is giving advice on how to stop the virus spread. His advice should be only part of the equation of whether to shut anything down.
Get rid of the gotcha Trump reporters and replace them with business and economic journalist that can ask good questions.
We can't have manufacturing plants running with 1,000 employees mingling together with people who may not know they're infected.
Nope. Not every situation will warrant opening up. Since we know you can get it from breathing the air of an infected person, masks are a no brainer. I have seen many people at the store now wearing masks and gloves. This was before we knew the transmission is so easy.
Why have the changed their mind on wearing masks? ALL the expert doctors were saying don't wear a mask unless you have symptoms because it won't be very affective unless it's the top notch stuff and it will make you touch your face more. Do they really think people can stop touching their face? We all do it and don't even think about it.
Unless you change your gloves all the time and every time you touch something that's contaminated it's just like not having them on, gloves they get contaminated just like skin then you touch face, arm or something else or someone else and you still spread any contaminate. It just makes people feel better and safer.
I see women at the Grocery wearing gloves and touching everything, the fruit, meat etc. then they touch their Hair dig in their purse to get Cell Phone and talk on it, they dig in the freezer section this and that....their gloves are not doing them any good at all except they feel emotionally better and are ignoring good Hygiene practice.
I see women at the Grocery wearing gloves and touching everything, the fruit, meat etc. then they touch their Hair dig in their purse to get Cell Phone and talk on it, they dig in the freezer section this and that....their gloves are not doing them any good at all except they feel emotionally better and are ignoring good Hygiene practice.
Saw a guy at the supermarket in a mask at the deli. He pulled down his mask to eat the sample slice of meat. I about peed laughing at him.
Also, I have no idea why Schnucks was still giving out deli meat sample slices last week. Insane.
There continues to be this big fallacy that the government is the only reason people are staying home. This is a major failure of your analysis and one that needs serious rethinking before you can draw any meaningful conclusions.
Why did the NBA and NHL end games before the Feds pushed for 15 days of social distancing? Why did air travel decline by 50% in a week right before the Feds asked for social distancing? Etc. People and large employers were already making profound changes to their travel habits. And it would only get worse as the virus spread. Who on earth would go to the gym in NYC right now? Who would take a plane right now? Etc.
I'm not saying we'd have a full shutdown, but I am saying you'd see profoundly depressed economic activity as is, with that activity further declining as the virus cases spread. The feds were just pushing that shut down forward to try to limit the virus carnage to avoid overloading the health care system. That seems reasonable to me.
I think you're focused on the wrong question. The question isn't why did state and local shut down. That one is pretty obvious and seems to be a pretty easy decision given the experience in Europe and the US in places that delayed lockdowns. The question is, what/when can we loosen restrictions to try to lessen the economic downturn.
The places in Europe that delayed (UK, Netherlands, Sweden) aren't looking great right now. But it is interesting to have test cases.
I read your responses. What is our metric for success? Say in 3 months? The models have so many variables and they end in August. What study is Fauci and Birx using to get their adjusted numbers? Washington? A mixture? Are we primarily using New York data? Is California in the equation? LA seems to be ready. What does the second wave look like? When restrictions for the younger population are lifted to return to work with masks, what does that look like? Are we all going to eventually get the virus? We know what it looks like now but what does it look like three weeks? 3 months? Fall? When do health and economic experts weigh loss of savings, job, stock cash in, life savings versus the death toll? What is the đeath toll for bankruptcy and poverty? Is the second wave going to kill more? Does it die in the summer heat? Is this seasonal?
The policy right now, this is bad, a bunch of people are dying and more will die, stay home.
Do we develop a herd immunity? The vaccine is a year away. Europe is rioting.
We don't know anything more than what's in front of us right now.
Dr Oz said a bandana will give protection. Lol.
Last edited:
BTW, I remember, it was like 5 minutes ago that everyone sort of all jumped on board as the dominoes fell in regard to the shut downs. Decisions were made brace before the Fed reacted. As a nation we've been in this mode of thinking for a long time
Given the size and scale of the US, it seems likely that restrictions will be eased on a local/state basis versus a national basis. Seattle will probably be ready before Miami or Atlanta. NYC, actually may be ready before a number of other places, plus it may have the highest % of residents who have immunity (well, there or New Orleans.)
If you have better testing of cases and better testing for immunity/antibodies, that makes it more plausible to open up at least partially without a vaccine.
No question it's a lot of estimation/forecasting and there are a range of outcomes. We had an initial shock that we were managing through. What is to come in June, July, August, etc. is something our policy makers should be working on. Hopefully we can also get some help from a drug, from weather, better understanding of how the disease transmits, or better protective gear.
I would guess our metric for success that is most relevant is a decline in cases, hospitalizations, and death. Death and hospitalizations are lagging indicators (you get sick before you go to the hospital, let alone before you die), so if those are coming down, that means your city must be doing better and/or we have found treatments that are effective.
The number of deaths prevented down the road here would be nice. Nobody is asking simple questions at the press conferences.
No. They don't know. At best, it will be a guess. If somehow they tripped over the number, they'd screw it up.
Jim Acosta is really good at asking questions.
Similar threads
