Great move by the Cards
- Thread starter Drop.Tine
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I wouldn't say that; Walden may well close for the Cardinals in 2015 given Rosie's struggles and Jenkins is one of our better remaining prospects (although he's probably not MLB ready until 2017 at the earliest and he has a bad health history).
You want an example of how MLB has changed to valuing pre-FA years to almost an absurd degree - an All-star OF and a top tier setup man with a huge K rate were just traded for a back of the rotation SP and a minor league prospect. Why? Because Heyward is a FA in 1 year, Walden in 2, whereas Miller is 4 years away and Jenkins is 6 years away.
In terms of impact on the 2015 MLB teams, this is just highway robbery, something like a 4-5 win difference unless Miller makes a huge leap. Braves appear to be giving up on 2015.
There's also the potential for the Cards to be even better if they make the follow up move I expect - I have to think they're going to acquire another SP.
You want an example of how MLB has changed to valuing pre-FA years to almost an absurd degree - an All-star OF and a top tier setup man with a huge K rate were just traded for a back of the rotation SP and a minor league prospect. Why? Because Heyward is a FA in 1 year, Walden in 2, whereas Miller is 4 years away and Jenkins is 6 years away.
In terms of impact on the 2015 MLB teams, this is just highway robbery, something like a 4-5 win difference unless Miller makes a huge leap. Braves appear to be giving up on 2015.
There's also the potential for the Cards to be even better if they make the follow up move I expect - I have to think they're going to acquire another SP.
Heyward didn't help that, yeah.
I'm surprised at how little the Braves got for Heyward and Walden. Hard to believe they couldn't get more than Miller. Keep in mind Heyward will get a QO if the Cards don't sign him so they'll get a 1st rounder back that offsets Jenkins.
Clearly the Braves have given up on 2015, that's the only explanation. Save close to $10 M this year + get Miller and lose a draft pick. I don't think I'd trade my best player for that; hard to believe they couldn't have done better than that.
I wonder if the ATL scouts love Miller.
I'm surprised at how little the Braves got for Heyward and Walden. Hard to believe they couldn't get more than Miller. Keep in mind Heyward will get a QO if the Cards don't sign him so they'll get a 1st rounder back that offsets Jenkins.
Clearly the Braves have given up on 2015, that's the only explanation. Save close to $10 M this year + get Miller and lose a draft pick. I don't think I'd trade my best player for that; hard to believe they couldn't have done better than that.
I wonder if the ATL scouts love Miller.
I'd like to have seen them get some more pop, yes, versus getting more OF D. But, you've got a finite set of options available in terms of value to the club. Mo must have considered this the best option. I don't know that I could disagree with him when I see the end result.
Heyward may be our new leadoff hitter given the stories we've seen about moving where Carp hits. Heyward 1st then Carp 2nd seems like a good fit.
Heyward is tremendously undervalued by looking at BA for a couple of reasons:
- He excels at everything that isn't in BA (good walk rate, ok power, good speed, unbelievable defender, pretty good health record outside of getting beaned in the face.
- He's only 25 years old; using career average is misleading for players when you're grabbing their pre-peak years in an average.
This deal comes down to a few things (in order of meaning)
- Does Shelby actually develop? That's the real wild card. If he becomes a stud, this deal sucks. I think his ceiling is lower than I used to think it was, but he is a young guy with 4 years of team control left.
- Do the Cards extend Heyward? I think they made this deal with the intention of re-signing him. Cards really don't have that much money committed long-term. He's young enough that you aren't crying about giving him a 6-7 year deal.
- Does Heyward refind his power stroke? Heyward who hits 20-25 HR is a borderline MVP candidate.
Heyward may be our new leadoff hitter given the stories we've seen about moving where Carp hits. Heyward 1st then Carp 2nd seems like a good fit.
Heyward is tremendously undervalued by looking at BA for a couple of reasons:
- He excels at everything that isn't in BA (good walk rate, ok power, good speed, unbelievable defender, pretty good health record outside of getting beaned in the face.
- He's only 25 years old; using career average is misleading for players when you're grabbing their pre-peak years in an average.
This deal comes down to a few things (in order of meaning)
- Does Shelby actually develop? That's the real wild card. If he becomes a stud, this deal sucks. I think his ceiling is lower than I used to think it was, but he is a young guy with 4 years of team control left.
- Do the Cards extend Heyward? I think they made this deal with the intention of re-signing him. Cards really don't have that much money committed long-term. He's young enough that you aren't crying about giving him a 6-7 year deal.
- Does Heyward refind his power stroke? Heyward who hits 20-25 HR is a borderline MVP candidate.
What I like is that he is a good baseball player and a great athlete.
Everyone was all excited watching the Royals because they have athletic
outfielders. We just upgraded our athleticism my man.
And watching Shelby throw 60 pitches thru 2 innings was very
unpleasant
Everyone was all excited watching the Royals because they have athletic
outfielders. We just upgraded our athleticism my man.
And watching Shelby throw 60 pitches thru 2 innings was very
unpleasant
Probably so but I think if Grichuk played a full season he would hit at least .260, have 15 to 20 HR's, steal 20 or more bases, he's a RH hitter and he can play defense. We never hit lefties well yet we keep putting more LH hitters in the lineup. BTW if this dude is a power guy why on earth would they want him to leadoff and put Carp behind him when we need some pop in the middle of the lineup? What's your batting order look like after this trade?
I would take the under on every number you cited about grichuk. He didn't hit .260 in either AA or AAA and he's never stolen 20 bases in a season in the minors. Let's be realistic the guy isn't peak Brian Jordan; he's a backup OF with some pop right now who has the potential to be a good player.
He's put up an OBP of about .305 over the past two seasons across all levels. Keep some perspective.
He's put up an OBP of about .305 over the past two seasons across all levels. Keep some perspective.
I don't have issue with the Heyward deal, just with the folks on here that wanted a RH power bat and didn't care about defense claiming this a great deal. Not sure we need another .260 average, 20 HR guy and one that hits from left side to boot, but at least he is good defensively. Grichuk hit 4 or 5 HRs in VERY limited plate appearances in the bigs. What's your batting order with Heyward in RF? I don't get the leadoff idea.
This post was edited on 11/17 9:28 PM by 3Rfan
This post was edited on 11/17 9:28 PM by 3Rfan
Stretch that out to 500 or more AB's and he's right up there where I said he "could" be. We don't have any earth shattering HR hitters and we didn't get one in this trade. He will no doubt be a good addition but he is NOT what Mo said he was looking for. Unless something else changes that makes 5 lefties out of 8 hitters in the everyday lineup, 3 infielders and 2 outfielders. What order they will hit in I have no idea.
Maybe they're planning to trade Jay and ?? for a RH power bat to play some 1st base and PH? Maybe they're ready to put Rosie on the block since they got another power arm type guy that could close? I don't see them making Rosie a starter but I guess they could move him to the 8th inning since they don't plan to bring Neshek back.
Maybe they're planning to trade Jay and ?? for a RH power bat to play some 1st base and PH? Maybe they're ready to put Rosie on the block since they got another power arm type guy that could close? I don't see them making Rosie a starter but I guess they could move him to the 8th inning since they don't plan to bring Neshek back.
Not sure what Heyward is going to do, but he is a known vs hoping on Grichuk and I feel that is a big plus. The thing I like is that Walden is also a known quality and a pretty good one so that should free up a spot for Carlos in the rotation. I think MO is just getting started and the Cubs lost out on the catcher they wanted so all in all I'd say it was a good day. Pirates also lost their catcher! Go Birds!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I don't have a problem with another bat/good defender in the outfield, I just thought it should be a RH bat, which is what Mo said he wanted. Who wants 5 LH hitters in the lineup every day? I guess you take the deals that are offered, not the ones you would like to be offered. Like I said maybe they plan to package Jay and another pitcher in a deal for a big RH bat that can play 1st base and PH and put Bourjos in CF.
I'd be on board for that. Just think those RH corner bats are hard to find. Seems like, these days, if they're worth a darn they're in the everyday lineup.
True story...but giving up a 1st rounder for a 35 yr old bit part (albeit a really freaking nice bit)...I'm not sold he's worth that much.
Giving up a first round draft pick for cuddyer is nuts.
Hayward is also 2-3 wins better than cuddyer right now.
Hayward is also 2-3 wins better than cuddyer right now.
Don't get me wrong I would much rather have Heyward, but this lineup is really top loaded with left handed batters. If we could get lucky maybe Bourjos can contribute more next year. I do like the idea of Jay lf, Bourjos cf, and Heyward rf late in the game Best late inning defensive of in the league, maybe all of baseball. Of course they would all have to be on the team
I'm starting to think Heyward might get some time in CF and that the Cards may still be in the market for a corner OF.
For this to happen, one of Jay or Bourjos would likely be traded.
For this to happen, one of Jay or Bourjos would likely be traded.
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