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Fowler and Marp

Eagles_Ball

Eagles_Ball

Well-Known Member
Dec 19, 2003
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And to a lesser extent Wong...but not that much lesser.

Need your help here NM....Do these guys have to accept a demotion to the minors to try to get right? I can't remember how that all works.
 
Eagles_Ball said:
And to a lesser extent Wong...but not that much lesser.

Need your help here NM....Do these guys have to accept a demotion to the minors to try to get right? I can't remember how that all works.
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Yes. And it will never happen. So then you're stuck with DFA and maybe a trade...... Which also won't happen
 
wccards21 said:
Yes. And it will never happen. So then you're stuck with DFA and maybe a trade...... Which also won't happen
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I feel like Marp might...Fowler, no way...Wong, I can't see it. But wouldn't be too expensive to DFA him.

I searched the last few years...lowest averages in MLB were always .200+. Only about a dozen or so players hit below .230. And nearly all of those guys hit around 25ish HRs. I feel like Marp, Fowler, and Wong don't exactly fit the banger model. Sigh. Hey, Marp got two hits today. I'm sure he's close to figuring it out. o_O
 
Eagles_Ball said:
I feel like Marp might...Fowler, no way...Wong, I can't see it. But wouldn't be too expensive to DFA him.

I searched the last few years...lowest averages in MLB were always .200+. Only about a dozen or so players hit below .230. And nearly all of those guys hit around 25ish HRs. I feel like Marp, Fowler, and Wong don't exactly fit the banger model. Sigh. Hey, Marp got two hits today. I'm sure he's close to figuring it out. o_O
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Wong you could dump and not be bothered. Fowler money will hurt

I'm not sure what you guys did to him. Good thing for him though is, if he is ever released.....he will never go hungry. He eats and drinks for free in Chicago for life:D:D
 
Eagles_Ball said:
Hey, Marp got two hits today. I'm sure he's close to figuring it out. o_O
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That's been the issue. Marp and Fowler do something positive just often enough to keep them hanging on. Fortunately that's been enough to help win enough games to stay in it to this point. You have to think if these guys could just get in the neighborhood of their career avg the team would be in good shape. But I'm not sure how much Marp has left. He's looking awfully Allen Craigish. Everything he does looks like a struggle.
 
oldroundballer said:
That's been the issue. Marp and Fowler do something positive just often enough to keep them hanging on. Fortunately that's been enough to help win enough games to stay in it to this point. You have to think if these guys could just get in the neighborhood of their career avg the team would be in good shape. But I'm not sure how much Marp has left. He's looking awfully Allen Craigish. Everything he does looks like a struggle.
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As soon as I post that he hits his second double of the day. HE'S BACK BABY!! ;)
 
Eagles_Ball said:
And to a lesser extent Wong...but not that much lesser.

Need your help here NM....Do these guys have to accept a demotion to the minors to try to get right? I can't remember how that all works.
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They could refuse the option given their service time exceeds 5 years.
 
Eagles_Ball said:
I feel like Marp might...Fowler, no way...Wong, I can't see it. But wouldn't be too expensive to DFA him.

I searched the last few years...lowest averages in MLB were always .200+. Only about a dozen or so players hit below .230. And nearly all of those guys hit around 25ish HRs. I feel like Marp, Fowler, and Wong don't exactly fit the banger model. Sigh. Hey, Marp got two hits today. I'm sure he's close to figuring it out. o_O
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Well, you're looking at full season stats vs. guys with about 35 games, you have to keep that in mind. With all the people on the Cards - good and bad - it's tough to draw overwhelming conclusions from 120-150 at bats.

Both are struggling. But Carp has me a lot more concerned. His K rate is way up,

Fowler has been insanely unlucky on balls in play (a sub .150 coming into today.) His BB and K rates were pretty consistent with last year, and his contact rates/swinging strike rate/hard hit rate haven't changed all that much.

Both of these guys are trending towards being rather replaceable. Pham and Ozuna are locked in, which leaves Fowler competing for one spot. Carp can pretty easily be replaced at one of the infield positions by a better player.
 
Neutron Monster said:
Well, you're looking at full season stats vs. guys with about 35 games, you have to keep that in mind. With all the people on the Cards - good and bad - it's tough to draw overwhelming conclusions from 120-150 at bats.

Both are struggling. But Carp has me a lot more concerned. His K rate is way up,

Fowler has been insanely unlucky on balls in play (a sub .150 coming into today.) His BB and K rates were pretty consistent with last year, and his contact rates/swinging strike rate/hard hit rate haven't changed all that much.

Both of these guys are trending towards being rather replaceable. Pham and Ozuna are locked in, which leaves Fowler competing for one spot. Carp can pretty easily be replaced at one of the infield positions by a better player.
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Not sure I'd call Ozuna locked in. While he is getting some hits I don't think the Cards paid him $9 M to be a .250 singles hitter from the clean up spot. He's got the Ks for it but only 5 doubles and 3 HRs so far probably isn't what they had in mind from him.
 
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You want to be a GM? Take a look at some Cards payroll versus production or DL.

Those on the DL:
Waino - $19.5 M
Yadi - $20.0 M
CMart - $11.7 M
Gregerson - $5 M

Those not producing much:
Marp - $13.7 M
Fowler - $16.5 M
Wong - $4 M
Holland - $14 M
Cecil - $7.7 M

That's roughly $112 M that they're getting very little or nothing from. Yikes....

I didn't realize Jed got a raise but at least he's doing a little for his $9 M. When he gets a chance.

Thank goodness for Pham, JMart and DeJong who are raking in a cool $2.3 M between them. And of course Bud Chuck who's getting $3 M. You think he sends Holland a bill every time he has to clean up his mess? lol
 
130 to 150 atbats is a large hole to dig out of. To have a decent year they will need to hit .350 for 6-8 weeks. Do you see that happening?
 
oldroundballer said:
Not sure I'd call Ozuna locked in. While he is getting some hits I don't think the Cards paid him $9 M to be a .250 singles hitter from the clean up spot. He's got the Ks for it but only 5 doubles and 3 HRs so far probably isn't what they had in mind from him.
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He's going to get a very long leash.
 
Sam_Tarley said:
130 to 150 atbats is a large hole to dig out of. To have a decent year they will need to hit .350 for 6-8 weeks. Do you see that happening?
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The past is the past. What matters is if their expected production for the rest of the season is enough on its own to justify playing them.
 
oldroundballer said:
You want to be a GM? Take a look at some Cards payroll versus production or DL.

Those on the DL:
Waino - $19.5 M
Yadi - $20.0 M
CMart - $11.7 M
Gregerson - $5 M

Those not producing much:
Marp - $13.7 M
Fowler - $16.5 M
Wong - $4 M
Holland - $14 M
Cecil - $7.7 M

That's roughly $112 M that they're getting very little or nothing from. Yikes....

I didn't realize Jed got a raise but at least he's doing a little for his $9 M. When he gets a chance.

Thank goodness for Pham, JMart and DeJong who are raking in a cool $2.3 M between them. And of course Bud Chuck who's getting $3 M. You think he sends Holland a bill every time he has to clean up his mess? lol
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No question we need more out of our high dollar guys, although the average MLB team has a bad distribution of dollars vs. production since young, valuable players like DeJong and Pham tend to be tremendously underpaid, and lots of FA/extension into FA year contracts run for far too long (see Waino)

Yadi and CMart coming back would make it look a little more reasonable. And Cecil is back now.
 
Sam_Tarley said:
So your answer is no.
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My answer is your question starts with a flawed premise that makes the point irrelevant to the Cardinals as to whether or not these two belong on the field.

The Cards shouldn't play Jedd Gyorko tomorrow because he's hitting .300 in 2018 just as they shouldn't not play Fowler for hitting .150 or whatever. You should play them or not play them based upon your organization's best estimate of their future performance over the rest of the season. If that means Gyorko plays and Carp sits, fine, that may be the right answer. But it's not "Carp and Fowler would have to hit .350 for a month to get back to their 2017 performance." They get back to their 2017 performance by hitting .260 with decent OBP and acceptable power starting tomorrow, not by running hot for 6 weeks.
 
Neutron Monster said:
My answer is your question starts with a flawed premise that makes the point irrelevant to the Cardinals as to whether or not these two belong on the field.

The Cards shouldn't play Jedd Gyorko tomorrow because he's hitting .300 in 2018 just as they shouldn't not play Fowler for hitting .150 or whatever. You should play them or not play them based upon your organization's best estimate of their future performance over the rest of the season. If that means Gyorko plays and Carp sits, fine, that may be the right answer. But it's not "Carp and Fowler would have to hit .350 for a month to get back to their 2017 performance." They get back to their 2017 performance by hitting .260 with decent OBP and acceptable power starting tomorrow, not by running hot for 6 weeks.
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Sam seems a little too straight lined for that. But I like his addition to the board. Ducky and 3R needed some allies. Especially since VB joined the dark side with me!
 
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Neutron Monster said:
My answer is your question starts with a flawed premise that makes the point irrelevant to the Cardinals as to whether or not these two belong on the field.

The Cards shouldn't play Jedd Gyorko tomorrow because he's hitting .300 in 2018 just as they shouldn't not play Fowler for hitting .150 or whatever. You should play them or not play them based upon your organization's best estimate of their future performance over the rest of the season. If that means Gyorko plays and Carp sits, fine, that may be the right answer. But it's not "Carp and Fowler would have to hit .350 for a month to get back to their 2017 performance." They get back to their 2017 performance by hitting .260 with decent OBP and acceptable power starting tomorrow, not by running hot for 6 weeks.
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Oh contraire pierre. Perhaps if Fowler were hitting .210 you might reasonably expect his performance to return to his norm the rest of the season. But he is hitting .158. Very few players who have hit that low over 25% of the season have flipped a switch and had the type of performance you are projecting.
Very seldom are they allowed to keep their job.

Be it injury, age, or happenstance Mr. Fowler's performance level is nearly unheard of in the game. His running speed is down. His contact rate is down. His exit velocity is down. Based on this data his projected average the rest of this season is barely over .200. Next you will tell me we can expect Waino to go on a winning streak.
 
Sam_Tarley said:
Oh contraire pierre. Perhaps if Fowler were hitting .210 you might reasonably expect his performance to return to his norm the rest of the season. But he is hitting .158. Very few players who have hit that low over 25% of the season have flipped a switch and had the type of performance you are projecting.
Very seldom are they allowed to keep their job.

Be it injury, age, or happenstance Mr. Fowler's performance level is nearly unheard of in the game. His running speed is down. His contact rate is down. His exit velocity is down. Based on this data his projected average the rest of this season is barely over .200. Next you will tell me we can expect Waino to go on a winning streak.
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Lots of players have done so. Granderson, Swanson, and Buxton all did last year. Schwarber hit .120 last May. Nick Castellano was terrible last May. Matt Davidson was horrendous to end the season. Fowler has been extraordinarily unlucky, and luck evens out over time.

Some players show drastic declines due to aging or injury. As of yet, Fowler doesn't look like one of them when you look at K rates, how hard he's hitting the ball, etc. He may not be exactly who he was last year, but he's better than he's been.
 
Sam_Tarley said:
Oh contraire pierre. Perhaps if Fowler were hitting .210 you might reasonably expect his performance to return to his norm the rest of the season. But he is hitting .158. Very few players who have hit that low over 25% of the season have flipped a switch and had the type of performance you are projecting.
Very seldom are they allowed to keep their job.

Be it injury, age, or happenstance Mr. Fowler's performance level is nearly unheard of in the game. His running speed is down. His contact rate is down. His exit velocity is down. Based on this data his projected average the rest of this season is barely over .200. Next you will tell me we can expect Waino to go on a winning streak.
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And they're still swapping games with catchers in Yada's absence. Why wouldn't they use this time to see what Kelly can do as an everyday player? Time to find out if he can be next man up behind the plate. Who knows what this injury might do to Molina.
 
3Rfan said:
And they're still swapping games with catchers in Yada's absence. Why wouldn't they use this time to see what Kelly can do as an everyday player? Time to find out if he can be next man up behind the plate. Who knows what this injury might do to Molina.
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Kelly is on the DL.
 
Fowler's is not hitting into much bad luck like the others you listed. Look at the numbers. He is really bad.
 
3Rfan said:
I missed that one, what's wrong with him?
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Kelly has hamstring problem. Today DeJong and Bowman hit DL. This is insane. I guess I have to quit hoping Marp and Fowler hit the DL or we will be the Memphis Redbirds. DeJong's injury could be the one we have the least coverage for and the one that will really hurt!
 
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vbsideout said:
Kelly has hamstring problem. Today DeJong and Bowman hit DL. This is insane. I guess I have to quit hoping Marp and Fowler hit the DL or we will be the Memphis Redbirds. DeJong's injury could be the one we have the least coverage for and the one that will really hurt!
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I found the Kelley deal on the card's website but still didn't know about DeJong. :eek:
 
Neutron Monster said:
Carpenter must have read the posts and found some motivation. 7 doubles in 6 games
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Wish Dex would read them too. Or Little League would free Harrison Bader. Gotta be a tad uncomfy when two of your three best OF'ers are making the minimum. Just glad Marp finally picked it up. Nice timing too with Dejong going on the DL.
 
Eagles_Ball said:
Wish Dex would read them too. Or Little League would free Harrison Bader. Gotta be a tad uncomfy when two of your three best OF'ers are making the minimum. Just glad Marp finally picked it up. Nice timing too with Dejong going on the DL.
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We really needed it.
 
Eagles_Ball said:
Wish Dex would read them too. Or Little League would free Harrison Bader. Gotta be a tad uncomfy when two of your three best OF'ers are making the minimum. Just glad Marp finally picked it up. Nice timing too with Dejong going on the DL.
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Not sure you can blame MM for playing Carp or Fowler too much. They both have spent more time on the bench than I thought possible in order to play Bader and now O'Neil. Another test tonight doesiPham get a day after striking out 6 times in a row? If so I would call that improvement:cool:
 
vbsideout said:
Not sure you can blame MM for playing Carp or Fowler too much. They both have spent more time on the bench than I thought possible in order to play Bader and now O'Neil. Another test tonight doesiPham get a day after striking out 6 times in a row? If so I would call that improvement:cool:
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The Fowler thing has gotten me, especially since Little League doesn't pay attention to metrics. He supposedly goes with his gut, and his gut shouldn't have been telling him to play Fowler over Bader lately. Fowler is pretty worthless right now.
 
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