COC week 5

[Invalid_67]

Early I know, but who does everyone got?

Branson (1-3) @ Carl Junction (1-3)
Carthage (1-3) @ Neosho (0-4)
Ozark (1-3) @ Webb City (3-1)
Nixa (4-0) @ Joplin (3-1)
Willard(3-1) @ Republic (3-1)

My personal picks:
Branson
Carthage
Webb City
Nixa
Republic

 

[Flint222]

Carl Junction
Carthage
Webb city
Joplin
Republic

 

[The Last Black Man In Missouri]

Branson
Carthage
Webb City
Nixa
REPMO

 

[I2R I]

CJ
Carthage
Webb City
Joplin
Republic

Taking Joplin at Home for the upset. Probably unwise as I think it is home coming?

 

[Invalid_67]

I could see the Joplin upset happening.

 

[Stimie69er]

CJ
Carthage
Webb City
Joplin
Republic

Taking Joplin at Home for the upset. Probably unwise as I think it is home coming?

Joplin had there homecoming early in week 3.

 

[Flint222]

I'm picking Joplin upset too

 

[I2R I]

Joplin had there homecoming early in week 3.

Thanks. Figuring Joplin would cruise, I went to Republic that week for what I thought would be a close game but Republic win. WC played well but Republic gave away the first half of that game. Still picked Joplin to win last Friday but as the Monkeys say; “Now I’m a believer “. I will definitely be at Junge this week thinking we have a puncher’s chance again Nixa.

 

[BoosterBosko]

Careful, everyone. This poster is using a picture of Billy-Bob. His number was 69 and he has passed away. This might not be the real Billy-Bob...

 

[sw5890]

I'll go with Branson over CJ in a close one. I might be wrong in basing that partly on the only common opponent (Carthage) which Branson won convincingly and CJ lost convincingly. However those games were very different. Branson really hasn't had much offensive performance, though they have played a more difficult schedule IMO.

Carthage just like I said last week should win as long as they prevent turnovers and big mistakes, and minimize penalties. I'm guessing a similar outcome as vs CJ.

Webb City will have zero trouble with Ozark. I'm not sure why so many people thought missing 2 backs was going to matter vs a short handed Joplin team.

Nixa and Joplin is clearly the game of the week although Joplin's injuries really is a wet blanket. I'm hoping to see Joplin get this but I think Nixa will be too much.

Willard and Republic is interesting to me. Neither of these teams actually have a marquee win. Republic lost big to WC and barely beat a terribly inexperienced and young Carthage team. Republic looked respectable at Joplin. I think Willard is definitely better than recent teams and I think Republic while they have a lot of experience and some big talent, I am still not sold on them - but I think they will take this game. If they win big I might buy into them a little more.

 

[Eagles_Ball]

Early I know, but who does everyone got?

Branson (1-3) @ Carl Junction (1-3)
Carthage (1-3) @ Neosho (0-4)
Ozark (1-3) @ Webb City (3-1)
Nixa (4-0) @ Joplin (3-1)
Willard(3-1) @ Republic (3-1)

My personal picks:
Branson
Carthage
Webb City
Nixa
Republic

Branson...Probably a close slugfest. Game won't take long. O/U on total pass attempts is probably 10.5. Leather helmets might be used.

Carthage...Won't be close.

Webb...I was a skeptic...I'm a believer now. I'd like to see them and Nixa play again.

Nixa...For sure the game of the week. I think Nixa wins and basically wraps up the COC. Don't see them being tested the rest of the way.

REPMO...might be closer than some think. Willard is pretty big up front on both sides. A couple of decent skill players. Waaayyyyyy better than the last couple years Willard. Just don't think they're good enough to get this one.

 

[sw5890]

Branson...Probably a close slugfest. Game won't take long. O/U on total pass attempts is probably 10.5. Leather helmets might be used.

Carthage...Won't be close.

Webb...I was a skeptic...I'm a believer now. I'd like to see them and Nixa play again.

Nixa...For sure the game of the week. I think Nixa wins and basically wraps up the COC. Don't see them being tested the rest of the way.

REPMO...might be closer than some think. Willard is pretty big up front on both sides. A couple of decent skill players. Waaayyyyyy better than the last couple years Willard. Just don't think they're good enough to get this one.

I had a typo, I actually meant Willard looked respectable at Joplin, not Republic. But neither have a win they can point to as any kind of validation. Repmo is state ranked but I think it's fools gold. They have a couple really good players and that's mainly why I'm going with them.

 

[AC100]

Republic could take a step back next year.

 

[AC100]

Republic could take a step back next year.

This take is probably incorrect. Their JV is 4-0 and their freshman are 3-1. They beat Webb in JV and freshman. Their junior high teams look good too.

 

[J. Kane]

 

[COCfan1212]

Republic always always always does well in football 7th all the way through JV. For some reason over the years that hasnt translated to success at the varsity level. Seems like they may have fixed that though as they've been able to put some solid groups out on Friday nights the past couple of years.

 

[Pleiku]

This take is probably incorrect. Their JV is 4-0 and their freshman are 3-1. They beat Webb in JV and freshman. Their junior high teams look good too.

Republic is threatening to take over the coc

 

[Veer_left]

Dont look into jv for webbs leverage. Mac only sends soph and a very small group of juniors. Different than what rod sent to jv games. The fresh from what everyone says is a coaching issue. This group rarely lost coming up.

 

[J. Kane]

The fresh from what everyone says is a coaching issue. This group rarely lost coming up.

 

[AC100]

Dont look into jv for webbs leverage. Mac only sends soph and a very small group of juniors. Different than what rod sent to jv games. The fresh from what everyone says is a coaching issue. This group rarely lost coming up.

I wouldn't change 1 thing Rod was doing. I would copy whatever time he went to the bathroom.

 

[sw5890]

This take is probably incorrect. Their JV is 4-0 and their freshman are 3-1. They beat Webb in JV and freshman. Their junior high teams look good too.

But Republic fresh lost to Carthage. The JV might have also if half Carthage JV wasn't playing varsity.

But for real though, you can't always take too much from those records. For example Carthage JV last year only lost one game, a 2pt loss to Webb City which translated into a varsity team this year that is 1-3.

 

[AC100]

I think it partly depends on how many underclassmen are on varsity in the current year.

 

[sw5890]

I think it partly depends on how many underclassmen are on varsity in the current year.

Probably. I don't know about other schools but Carthage was very senior heavy at varsity last year and Republic is this year.

And both of them will probably lose to Webb City the majority of years no matter what happened as JV or Fresh.

 

[hctjtiger]

Dont look into jv for webbs leverage. Mac only sends soph and a very small group of juniors. Different than what rod sent to jv games. The fresh from what everyone says is a coaching issue. This group rarely lost coming up.

Coaching issue? Really?

 

[Veer_left]

Coaching issue? Really?

It was a joke. Apparently we all being serious today.

 

[hctjtiger]

My apologies.

 

[J. Kane]

It was a joke. Apparently we all being serious today.

 

[COCfan1212]

Joplin Globe: "Here's a midseason report on the Central Ozark Conference. There's been plenty of parity so far but the conference's biggest story resides in Willard."

 

[Eagles_Ball]

Joplin Globe: "Here's a midseason report on the Central Ozark Conference. There's been plenty of parity so far but the conference's biggest story resides in Willard."

Man, Idk...lot of coach speak in there. Willard is 3-1 because they've beaten Ozark, Branson, and Neosho. They're likely to win four games, which is a huge improvement over the past two years. But I'm not sure they're anything more than the best of the bad COC teams. That said, they're definitely better than the last couple of years.

Webb obviously belongs in the discussion at the top along with Joplin and Nixa. Carthage and REPMO are probably a good bit better than any in the bottom five. The outlier is the Carthage loss to Branson, but I think by season's end that will be the anomaly of the season.

 

[sw5890]

Joplin Globe: "Here's a midseason report on the Central Ozark Conference. There's been plenty of parity so far but the conference's biggest story resides in Willard."

I agree that Willard looks decidedly better than the last two years but that isn't saying much. They have won a few more games than before but it's entirely possible they only win one more game because their schedule is so backloaded. But who knows, it wasn't THAT long ago that Willard was one of the better teams in the COC, at least for a short while.

 

[Craig Hull]

I wish I had access to complete box scores from every COC game ... I'd be willing to compile conference leaders (both individual and team totals) in order to get a better picture of the league race.
I've tried to watch more than just the CJ games in the COC, have not watched everyone yet, but I have watched Ozark, Neosho, Carthage, Joplin once, Webb twice, Carl Junction four times. Will see Branson tomorrow. Need to make time to watch a Nixa, Republic, Willard game this weekend.

 

[sw5890]

Man, Idk...lot of coach speak in there. Willard is 3-1 because they've beaten Ozark, Branson, and Neosho. They're likely to win four games, which is a huge improvement over the past two years. But I'm not sure they're anything more than the best of the bad COC teams. That said, they're definitely better than the last couple of years.

Webb obviously belongs in the discussion at the top along with Joplin and Nixa. Carthage and REPMO are probably a good bit better than any in the bottom five. The outlier is the Carthage loss to Branson, but I think by season's end that will be the anomaly of the season.

I'm not entirely sure what to think about Carthage. I agree the Branson loss may end up as an outlier, it was just a truly abysmal performance. I thought maybe Carthage was turning a corner seeing the CJ score but when I got around to watching the game.... it was actually much closer than I thought. Carthage effectively won the game with a very solid first quarter but after that they were getting torched by that CJ QB and just barely able to keep up in scoring. The way the clock worked out late in the game helped as well.

They were better on turnovers and able to complete drives more reliably, getting a little more key blocks to open up more runs, so all those were good to see. So they are getting better IMO. One lingering concern is they are still getting burned repeatedly around the outside.

 

[Eagles_Ball]

I'm not entirely sure what to think about Carthage. I agree the Branson loss may end up as an outlier, it was just a truly abysmal performance. I thought maybe Carthage was turning a corner seeing the CJ score but when I got around to watching the game.... it was actually much closer than I thought. Carthage effectively won the game with a very solid first quarter but after that they were getting torched by that CJ QB and just barely able to keep up in scoring. The way the clock worked out late in the game helped as well.

They were better on turnovers and able to complete drives more reliably, getting a little more key blocks to open up more runs, so all those were good to see. So they are getting better IMO. One lingering concern is they are still getting burned repeatedly around the outside.

Agree with this. I'd say Carthage is about the only team we're still trying to figure out where they're at. Are they in the REPMO group? Good, but not good enough to be in the top 3. Or are they just not very good, but probably better than most in the bottom group? I tend to lean in the direction of the middle, but if Branson got them by 2 TDs and if them and CJ were relatively close...that tells me a different story. They might not be very good. I've yet to see them.

 

[Craig Hull]

I'm far from the official stats person, but the numbers on the CJ at Carthage game when I did the stats here is what I found:
-- Carthage first quarter 15 plays, 218 yards, CJ first quarter, 10 plays, 16 yards. Carthage scoring drives in the quarter went 5 plays, 72 yards in 2:02 TOP, 6 plays, 89 yards, 3:10 TOP and 4 plays, 52 yards, 1:40 TOP.
-- Neither team turned it over, each team had one fumble in the game but they each recovered it. CJ had three punts for 34.6 avg, Carthage had two for a 31 avg.
-- Plays of 20+ yards, Carthage had six plays go for 20+ yards, three in the first quarter, two in the second quarter and one in the third quarter; CJ had six plays for over 20+ yards, four in the second quarter and two in the fourth quarter.
-- Carthage ran the ball 44 times for 395 yards, 8.9 ypc. CJ is allowing 7.1 ypc as a team through four games.
-- Key fourth down conversions: with the score 27-21 in the third quarter CJ lined up to punt on fourth and three at its own 45 and the fake punt/pass fell incomplete. Carthage answered by going 45 yards in six plays using 3:40 TOP to score on a (!) ... fourth down pass of 25 yards to the tight end for a two score lead. In the fourth quarter, after CJ scored to make it a 35-28 game, Carthage had fourth and three at its own 46, Carthage does not use a punt formation, they line up in a normal offensive formation and punt of it if they choose. On this play Carthage completed a seven yard pass to a receiver for a first down, part of a nine play, 61 yard drive eating 5:30 of the fourth quarter to open a two-score lead.
Would have been interesting had CJ had the ball in a one-score game during the final possession to see if they had gone for the lead or the tie on the extra point had they scored.

 

[CoachFox-ScreamingEagles]

CJ
Carthage
Webb City
Joplin
Republic

 

[sw5890]

Agree with this. I'd say Carthage is about the only team we're still trying to figure out where they're at. Are they in the REPMO group? Good, but not good enough to be in the top 3. Or are they just not very good, but probably better than most in the bottom group? I tend to lean in the direction of the middle, but if Branson got them by 2 TDs and if them and CJ were relatively close...that tells me a different story. They might not be very good. I've yet to see them.

I've watched all 4 of their games.

At Republic they looked bad for a couple possessions, but otherwise a team that could be pretty stout with a few games under the belt.

Then there was Branson after which I questioned if they would be able to win ANY games. It was that bad.

But then they played Nixa very well aside from again giving up big plays on the outside. So I was pretty optimistic.

Vs CJ they looked like "normal" Carthage but only for a quarter. So I walked back some of that optimism.

So that makes it hard to place them. They keep it close against good teams in spite of making a lot of preventable mistakes. The biggest margin loss was to a team that I don't belive to be a stellar opponent. Then they win a deceptively close one against a team that I think is decent but lacking depth.

It's also possible that Branson is actually pretty good. They have played one of the tougher schedules so far. Them playing CJ and Willard playing Repmo should give some good clues.

 

[AC100]

I'm not entirely sure what to think about Carthage. I agree the Branson loss may end up as an outlier, it was just a truly abysmal performance. I thought maybe Carthage was turning a corner seeing the CJ score but when I got around to watching the game.... it was actually much closer than I thought. Carthage effectively won the game with a very solid first quarter but after that they were getting torched by that CJ QB and just barely able to keep up in scoring. The way the clock worked out late in the game helped as well.

They were better on turnovers and able to complete drives more reliably, getting a little more key blocks to open up more runs, so all those were good to see. So they are getting better IMO. One lingering concern is they are still getting burned repeatedly around the outside.

People don't realize either that CJs seniors didn't play the 1st half of the 1st quarter and that is when Carthage started to build their lead.

 

[hitch_and_go]

People don't realize either that CJs seniors didn't play the 1st half of the 1st quarter and that is when Carthage started to build their lead.

Why ?

 

[AC100]

Why ?

It wasn't the biggest deal in the world but kids were kids.

 

[sw5890]

Yeah I forgot to mention that as part of my lack of enthusiasm with the result, however I thought they missed the whole game. The guy on the radio mentioned some of the starters were out because of “issues”.