The Accuracy of Pre-Season Media rankings? A case study: 2019

[TheRealJoey]

Here are the 2019 Media Pre-season Rankings, and where they ended up. Just one year's example about usually, you have no freggin' idea where it will end up.

Accuracy rate in picking the top 10 teams: 60.19%.

And 60% of the teams they pick for the top five, end up in the top five.

CLASS 6​

Rank in the 2019 pre-season: and where they ended up in parenthesis.
1. CBC (#3)
2. Rockhurst (#8)
T3. DeSmet (#1)
T3. Rock Bridge (#20)
5. Joplin, (#2)
6. Lee’s Summit North (11)
7. Blue Springs (13)
8. Kirkwood (12)
9. Lee’s Summit West (15)
10. Park Hill (7)

(5 of the pre-season top 10, in the top 10 at the end)

CLASS 5​

1. Fort Zumwalt North (2)
2. Carthage (1)
3. Eureka (6)
4. Raytown (7)
5. Vianney (20)
6. Staley, (4)
7. Battle, (10)
8. Fort Osage, (18)
9. Jackson (3)
10. Chaminade, (5)

(8 of the top 10 pre-season teams in the top 10 in the end.)

CLASS 4​

1. Ladue (3)
2. Webb City (1)
3. Camdenton, (2)
4. Platte County, (6)
5. MICDS (24)
6. Kearney, (17)
7. St. Mary’s (13)
8. West Plains (7)
9. Lebanon, (8)
10. Smithville (9)

(7 of top 10 pre-season teams in the top 10 in the end)

CLASS 3​

1. Trinity (5)
2. Blair Oaks (4)
3. Mt. Vernon (9)
4. Odessa, (1)
5. St. Charles West, (24)
6. Southern Boone, (19)
7. St. Francis Borgia, (16)
8. Cassville, (2)
9. Boonville, (13)
T10. Kennett, (3)
T10. Savannah, (7)

(7 of10 in top 11.)

CLASS 2​

1. Lutheran North (1)
2. Cardinal Ritter (4)
3. Maryville (3)
4. Lathrop (2)
5. Lamar, (6)
6. Clark County, (8)
7. Monroe City, (28)
8. Ava, (5)
9. Lawson, (11)
T10. Palmyra, (20)
T10. Versailles, (35)

(7 of 11)

CLASS 1​

1. Lincoln (2)
2. Hayti (5)
3. Pierce City (6)
4. Westran (56)
5. Mid Buchanan (3)
6. Valle Catholic (1)
7. Marceline, (12)
8. Adrian, (10)
9. Thayer (4)
10. Hamilton-Penney, (11)

(7 of 10)

 

[Nooner 5656]

Does this surprise you? Have you seen the nerds that work in the media?

 

[TheRealJoey]

Does this surprise you? Have you seen the nerds that work in the media?

There are too many moving parts to coming up with pre-season rankings...

1) Yeah, coach's record...good predictor of success.
2) Losing % of starters...(how key are the starters?)
3) Collectively, strength or lack of strength of coming schedule each team is playing.

 

[MoSooner69]

Not saying you are wrong but why use 2019? Were 2020 and 2021 similar?

 

[TheRealJoey]

Not saying you are wrong but why use 2019? Were 2020 and 2021 similar?

I was looking for the preseason rankings and could not readily find them for those years. But I would love to do that. Also, the last year before all the COVID nonsense.

 

[thetophat2021]

I was looking for the preseason rankings and could not readily find them for those years. But I would love to do that. Also, the last year before all the COVID nonsense.

Asterisk years indeed! Good call.........

 

[thetophat2021]

Asterisk years indeed! Good call.........

This is not to take away from what any teams accomplished these past two years simply an observation of what happened during especially the regular seasons (cancellations, reschedules etc.).

 

[TheRealJoey]

This is not to take away from what any teams accomplished these past two years simply an observation of what happened during especially the regular seasons (cancellations, reschedules etc.).

Teams cancelling practices and games. Showing up with five starters missing. Teams dropping out of the playoffs that are undefeated--see Odessa.

 

[thetophat2021]

Teams cancelling practices and games. Showing up with five starters missing. Teams dropping out of the playoffs that are undefeated--see Odessa.

Odessa-Blair Oaks would have been the game of 2020 indeed!

 

[MIZFam4L]

Understand everyone gets their opinion, but to NOT have Liberty North anywhere in your class 6 top 10, immediately disqualifies you from any logical opinion. They literally could have the best defense in KC and possibly Missouri. If they live up to expectations, it could go down as one of the more memorable defenses since that Blue Springs squad that had like 4 NFL guys on it.

 

[thetophat2021]

Understand everyone gets their opinion, but to NOT have Liberty North anywhere in your class 6 top 10, immediately disqualifies you from any logical opinion. They literally could have the best defense in KC and possibly Missouri. If they live up to expectations, it could go down as one of the more memorable defenses since that Blue Springs squad that had like 4 NFL guys on it.

This discussion is about the 2019 season not 2022.............

 

[thetophat2021]

Understand everyone gets their opinion, but to NOT have Liberty North anywhere in your class 6 top 10, immediately disqualifies you from any logical opinion. They literally could have the best defense in KC and possibly Missouri. If they live up to expectations, it could go down as one of the more memorable defenses since that Blue Springs squad that had like 4 NFL guys on it.

In saying that I think if you read Joey's other threads about this season he is calling LN's D a "college" one.

 

[MIZFam4L]

This discussion is about the 2019 season not 2022.............

Gotcha, didn't notice that, wasn't a jab a Joey but more around the thought this was from this year. I've seen plenty of crazy rankings through the years.

 

[thetophat2021]

Gotcha, didn't notice that, wasn't a jab a Joey but more around the thought this was from this year. I've seen plenty of crazy rankings through the years.

I pay little or no attention to them. What happens on the field is all that matters.

 

[TheRealJoey]

I pay little or no attention to them. What happens on the field is all that matters.

Add…”at the end of the season”